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Autochess: Market Status and Design Analysis [effort post]

It really helps me if you check the original article & more similar at https://jb-dev.net/ !!!
https://preview.redd.it/336cy55x9pg61.png?width=1024&format=png&auto=webp&s=c89b35c152f61892f277a28203e61f192a86d260
In January 2019, Drodo Studio’s Dota Auto Chess mod became insanely popular. Many companies (including household names like Valve, Riot, Ubisoft and Blizzard) rushed to release their own versions.
It seemed like the beginning of something big like MOBA or Battle Royale. But it has been more than a year now and the hype seems to have vanished completely. As quickly as it rose, it went away…
This is the first on a series of articles where we will analyze the autochess genre. Here we will be exploring the genre’s history, its current market situation and its audience. And also, what are the core design issues that autochess suffers and that no one has been able to solve yet.
u/JB: For this article I’m teaming up with my mate Victor Freso, one of my most talented folks at Pixel Noire Games, who helped me review all the games.
We also had feedback of ~300 highly engaged players from the different autochess reddit communities, which participated in an online poll whose results are available here. They’re especially thanked at the end of the article.

A HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE

This wasn’t the first time that a mod got the spotlight and ended up becoming the foundation of a genre. It happened in several major, industry-defining cases before (some of which are Team Shooters, MOBAs, Battle Royale…). But on some of these cases events unfolded differently. So we identify 3 distinctive eras related to the evolution of the industry:

1st Era (2000s): Assimilation

The company whose original software had been modded (or had a close enough game, like Valve) moved quickly to absorb the successful mods and turn them into even more successful products.
Since at that point creating a major game release was very complex (required an expensive development, publishing deals and an infrastructure to distribute the product), the deal was profitable for both sides. But it meant the dissolution of the identity of the original creator team, which became embedded in the bigger company culture.
Team Fortress (1999) was originally a Quake mod. And Counter-Strike (2000) started out as a fan-made mod on the Half Life engine. Both games (and creators) were quickly absorbed by Valve.
2nd Era (2010s): Integration
By this time, the previous era model still was going on… but the gaming industry had significatively grown a lot and it was also possible for smaller or even new companies to lure the original developers, and use the mod as a proof for commercial success in order to secure funding and develop it as a full title.
The main characteristic of this era is that the original developers were able to keep a bigger share of control and relevance, rather than being integrated as just another gear on a bigger machine, because the companies they joined built their own identity around that key product.
This was the case of Riot Games: They were able to raise enough money for the creation of their company through family and angel investors, and then hire some of the original creators of DOTA, and then created League of Legends.
​
![img](1vsle6y3apg61 " Defense of the Ancients (DotA), the foundational title for the MOBA genre, appeared in 2003 as a fan-made custom scenario of Warcraft 3. Foreseeing commercial potential on a full game based on the concept, Riot games and Valve both battled for the Dota IP and the original developers, eventually releasing rival titles League of Legends and Dota2. Interestingly, Blizzard (owners of Warcraft 3) tried to replicate the success without the mod creators in Heroes of the Storm (2015), which hasn’t been as successful as the other two. ")
A similar case happened with battle royale, which also started in 2013 as a successful DayZ mod created by the modder nicknamed PlayerUnknown. Later, it was transformed into a full product through the acquisition of the developer by a korean company (which would later be renamed as the PUBG Corporation, again showing how the company grew around the game rather than assimilating it).
Interestingly, this genre already hints what would happen with Auto Chess, since Fortnite wasn’t involved in any way with the original creators. They just copied the concept. Fortnite was a product stuck in a kind of development hell (had been 6 years in the works). As the game was getting close to the release, the developers became impressed by PUBG’s success, so they created a quick Battle Royale spin-off which became insanely popular and eventually ate the rest of the game.
![img](3b6l2rx6apg61 " Player Unknown’s Battlegrounds (2017), foundational title of the modern battle royale genre, is the successor of PlayerUnknown’s DayZ: Battle Royale, a popular mod for DayZ (which on itself is a mod of ArmA3, making it a mod of a mod lol). The success of PUBG inspired Fortnite (a title on the later stages of a troubled development at the time) to spin towards that genre, becoming PUBG‘s main competitor. ")

3rd Era (2020s): Fragmentation

In all the cases presented previously, the newborn genre ended up in the release of one or two titles which accumulated most of the business. But this hasn’t been the case here.
In Autochess, the newborn genre has been quickly fragmented into a big list of competitors. Some are standalone games (like DOTA Underlords or Autochess: Origins), but there’s also several service-model games which released their autochess mode as well (like Hearthstone’s Battlegrounds or TeamFight Tactics, which at the end of the day is a side-game mode of League of Legends).
This creates an interesting precedent, which I believe will define future cases where an innovative new game concept appears: The hot idea will be cloned very fast because today the main bottleneck in the industry is having an innovative design that generates player interest and engagement.
By 2020, it’s way easier to create and distribute a game, there are way more developers hungry for a hit than ever before, and a lot of service-model games with short development cycles always looking for something juicy for their next update… so new ideas becoming red oceans fast will be the norm.
For sure, this won’t affect the ability of small developers and modders to innovate, but it will affect their ability to leverage that to become successful on an independant level, before they get cloned.
Dota Auto Chess, was a Dota 2 mod which obtained massive popularity. After a failed acquisition from Valve (owners of Dota), the mod developers (Drodo Studios) went to create the mobile standalone Auto Chess: Origins, while still maintaining the PC version linked to Valve. Meanwhile, Riot, Valve, Ubisoft and many other companies developed and released their own autobattlers at a record time, downgrading the genre creators to just another competitor.
And ultimately, they haven’t fixed the core issues of the original game, which separates it from a true hyper-successful product like MOBA.

MARKET STATUS

Because of the rain of clones, it’s hard to map all the autochess games on the market. It doesn’t help that some of them are available in both PC and Mobile (playable in PC, Mac, Android and iOS), and also they’re exclusive to different PC stores (Dota Underlords is only on Steam, TFT is on Riot’s LoL launcher, and Autochess Origins is only at the Epic Store…).
And if that wasn’t enough, the Auto Chess mod in DOTA2 is still very active and has no signs that it’s going to be dying soon. It’s still being regularly updated, and presumably still profitable: Some months ago they added a battle pass system, with its revenue shared between Valve and Drodo.
https://preview.redd.it/081hvwjdapg61.png?width=854&format=png&auto=webp&s=34af2ba4751130a95b422ca1b7fd8c346029ab74
What’s interesting is that none of the contenders has been able to become massively successful in terms of monetization, at least not in terms comparable to even a second or third tier MOBA. And while there are definitively different tiers of following among these titles (led by Riot Games’ TeamFight Tactics), it seems that none of them has been able to gather under its banner a significant amount of players, mobile downloads or Twitch Views…
Sources: AppAnnie (mobile metrics), TwitchMetrics (twitch)
So ultimately, we’re dividing the autochess market into 3 categories: Squires, Would-be Kings and Peasants.
The gameplay of TeamFight Tactics (slow tempo, no team coordination, decreased attention requirement…) makes it a nice relief mode to play between LOL matches, which is its purpose in the foreseeable future. If there ever was an intention to make it a standalone game, it vanished together with the player interest on autochess…
DOTA Underlords is an extremely polished product in terms of graphics, character design and UX, and yet another proof that Valve devs really know how to do great games. Too bad they aren’t as good at releasing third installments...

THE AUDIENCE

We are of the belief that you can’t talk about a game and not talk about who plays it, and that players say more about a game than analyzing all its features and mechanics. So with this in mind we collected answers from ~300 autochess players (check the raw data here). After examining their responses, we’ve identified 3 main player profiles (the comments on each profile are literal):
https://preview.redd.it/zdh1jripapg61.png?width=934&format=png&auto=webp&s=162eb3f8b98024c0a69eb889ca26e7463fdd776c
What these profiles have in common, other than being hardcore gamers and having a big interest in competitive games, is the fact that they enjoy the lack of micromanagement, and the demand of reflexes and dexterity of autochess.
This is quite interesting, considering that the genre foundation is so close to MOBAs, which are extremely demanding on those aspects. Overall it seems that they belong to audiences below the MOBA umbrella which are currently being alienated by the bulk of ‘younger and dexterity focused’ players.
And when it comes to platforms, it seems that even though the barrier between the classic gaming platforms and mobile is progressively disappearing, the genre is still mainly focused on PC: Out of the ~300 players that answered, 50% said that they play exclusively on PC, 25% played primarily on Mobile, and the remaining 25% played in both.
https://preview.redd.it/1frwgvrtapg61.png?width=962&format=png&auto=webp&s=3602c6a760664333236a2fddbc189fbab3ee3fc1
Players said that they enjoy the focus of the game in planification, as opposed to the focus on execution and performance of MOBAs. And when asked about their main points of frustration, they pointed out 2 main topics: 1.- The strong luck factor that has a strong impact on making you win or lose regardless on how well you played. 2.- The fact that the game eventually becomes shallow and repetitive, fueled by the fact updates were unexciting and not rotating the meta.
Surprised by the fact that players mention randomness as a factor of both enjoyment and frustration? Don’t be! Competitive players tend to have a love-and-hate relationship with luck, because they tend to consider that external factors outside of skills (money spent, better draw…) stole their well deserved victory.
And it’s even more frustrating in autochess, because there’s a strong snowball effect: Players that obtain a big advantage early on in the game become hard to catch later on. Which means that a few bad or good draws early on can decide the rest of the match.
There hasn’t been a single feature more criticised in Magic: The Gathering than the randomness of drawing mana. And yet, luck it’s part of what makes MTG stand out compared to other CCGs: For experienced players, it introduces uncertainty and the need to take risks and gamble, like they’d do in poker. And for rookies, it allows beating someone that has better skills and has a better deck, if Lady Luck is on their side. Won’t happen often, but it will feel awesome when it does. Like a friend likes to say: The best feeling in MTG is to draw a mana when you really need it. And the worst? To draw it when you didn’t.
This goes to say that in autochess, perhaps the power of luck needs to be reviewed, but it would be a bad decision to completely remove luck from the equation.
​

DESIGN CHALLENGES

In this awesome DoF article, Giovanni Ducati already pointed out the two main problems that the games in this genre need to solve to achieve real success: Bad long term retention and low monetization.
To these issues we would add a third one, which is bad marketability: Contrary to their big brothers League of Legends and DOTA2, these games haven’t been able to achieve high organic downloads (at least not to be able to generate significant revenue through soft monetization mechanics). What’s even worse is that all these games, their themes and target audience are quite close to RPG and Strategy, which are genres with some of the highest CPIs on the market. So they need top-of-the-class retention and monetization to get a high enough LTV to scale up.
But why do these games fail at keeping players entertained for a long time? And why don’t they monetize enough? Here’s what we think:
​

Flat Complexity & Progression

You have some games out there which have a strong entry barrier due to being quite complicated to grasp. But for those that can deal with the numbers and stats, the depth will keep them entertained for months and years. This is the case in most RPGs and 4X strategy games. And then you have hypercasual games, which are simple and plug and play. So they generate a great early engagement, but are too shallow to keep users hooked for a long time.
As a genre, Autochess games are in the middle ground: they have a high entry barrier, but also lack the complexity to keep players engaged for a long time…
As a general rule, games with long retention tend to follow Bushnell’s Law of being easy to learn and difficult to master. They achieve that by having what we call an unfolding experience: They appear simpler at the beginning (not necessarily easy), but require thousands of hours of practice to master.
An example of this are games that level lock most of the game complexity, so the player understands and masters only a set starter mechanics. And then, progressively unlock new modes and demand more specialized builds and gameplay, repeating the cycle several times to keep the game always interesting while attempting to avoid being overwhelming.
In World of Warcraft, character depth is huge. But this complexity is unfolded progressively, forcing the player to spend time mastering each skill and activity as they level up, before moving further.
Another approach to the same idea are competitive games focused on mechanical ability, dexterity or micromanagement. Like CS:GO or Rocket League. They may unlock all the mechanics from the beginning, but a newbie player will only be able to focus and manage some of them, and then progressively discover and master the rest in an organic way.
Rocket League hides its complexity by matchmaking early players with others of a similar skill. This makes beginner players viable even if they grasp only the basic mechanics. But, as they climb further, they’ll face rivals that take those basic skills for granted and the player will need to master more challenging techniques to keep up.
League of Legends and Overwatch are actually a combination of both: The game first introduces the player to a small selection of heroes which progressively gets expanded, while at the same time having an insane mastery depth that requires a high APM and reflexes, team coordination and thousands of hours of practice.
Contrary to any of those examples, Autochess games throw everything at you from the beginning: Character Skills, Synergies, Unit Upgrade, Gold Management, Items… It’s a lot to swallow. And there’s not even enough time to read what each thing does before the timer runs out. This creates a complex, overwhelming first impression that drives many players out.
But that’s quantity, not depth. Once you’ve gone through that traumatic starting phase, you’ve grasped all the mechanics and you know which team builds are dominating on the meta, it’s just a matter of making it happen by taking the right decisions and adapting to a few key draws.
Eventually, unless luck is really against you, your skills won’t be challenged and you won’t have new mechanics to master. At that point, winning will be based more on the knowledge of the content database and luck rather than your planning and strategic ability. And that’s boring.
So ultimately, these games are hard to grasp for a newbie, but also lack the ability to keep players interested for a very long time since they eventually run out of new features and mechanics to discover and master.

Unexciting Updates, Lack of Collection

On top of that, autochess games seem to have a hard time adding content which reawakens player interest and makes churned ones come back.
The DAU trend that we expect on a long term retention game: A decreasing trend of players until reaching a stagnation stage. At that point, a big update (or new season) is required to attract and reengage users back with new content. This is the model we would see on Fortnite or Hearthstone, but it’s not what we see in most autochesses.
On this topic, perhaps the one that has put the most effort is Riot’s TFT. Each season update, the game releases a new series of heroes, synergies, items and rebalances, as well as a big bunch of cosmetics. This generates a short lived boost on revenue (due primarily to players buying the pass) and downloads, but ultimately nothing that really moves the needle in a relevant way.
‘Why seasonal updates don’t work?‘, you may be asking. Part of the reason is that TFT, as well as every major contender do not include elements of content progression or collection. Instead, they all stick to the roguelike approach of the original mod: Players have access to the same set of units, and build their inventory exclusively during the match.
While at first this seems a good idea, since it keeps the game fair in a similar way to MOBAs, it’s oblivious to the fact that new units do not offer the same amount of gameplay depth as in League of Legends. In LoL, a new unit means weeks or even months of practice until mastering timing, range and usage of the skills, how they interact with every other champion, etc… In comparison, in TFT the new content can be fully explored in just a bunch of matches, both because the new content doesn’t offer that much depth to start with and because it’s available from the moment the player gets the update.
By lacking content progression and collection, autochesses miss the opportunity to create long term objectives after an update, more innovative mechanics and less repetitiveness. As a consequence, they have it really hard to hype players on updates.

Big ‘Snowball Effect’

In game design, the snowball effect refers to the situation where obtaining an advantage or dominance generates further conditions that almost invariably means winning the match. As you can guess, on competitive games this effect can generate a bad experience, especially when the divergence starts early on: The player that obtained the early advantage will keep on increasing the advantage and curbstomp the rest.
For example, this can happen on a Civilization game if a player gets ahead of the rest acquiring key resource territories, and uses them to achieve a greater progress in tech and income at a faster pace than the rest. Or in League of Legends if a team scores a bunch of early kills and levels up, becoming more able at scoring even more kills…
In this match of Age of Empires 2, the red player (Aztecs) managed to decimate the blue player (Turks) military units early on. Since without an army it was impossible for the blue player to secure enough resources to perform a comeback, for the next 2 hours the blue player was in a pointless, hopeless match. Kudos for not abandoning, though!
Autochess games suffer greatly from this effect, due to the following reasons:
![img](4kbmxiqhbpg61 " TeamFight Tactics attempts to decrease the snowball effect by introducing Carousels: rounds where all players pick a character from a list, and where the players that are losing (i.e. have less health) get to choose first. While this decreases the issue, it doesn’t really solve it… It just makes that smart players aim to lose on purpose at the beginning so they can get the better pick and generate the snowball slightly later on. ")
As an antithesis, Poker also has resource management, and luck factor determines the victory (on a specific round). But unlike Autochess, resources can’t override luck, and early victories don’t affect the later chance of winning.

Excessive Match Length

Compared to PC, on mobile is much harder to keep the player focused for a long period of time on a single session. And having a very long minimum session kind of goes against the premise of being able to play anywhere which is a primary strength of mobile as a gaming platform. This is a problem for autochess games since a single match can last for 30-45 minutes of synchronous, nonstop gameplay.
![img](4ed79ecnbpg61 " The knockout mode in Dota Underlords aims to make the game more accessible by skipping the slow beginning of the match (you start with a pre-setup army), and by simplifying the health and fusion systems. This shortens the matches to ~15 minutes, which is still too long for mobile, but better than 30. The problem is that it also increases the snowball effect, since the match has less turns to allow comebacks, and makes any mistake (or a bad roll) way more punishing. ")
‘Isn’t the solution just make the match shorter?’, you’re probably wondering. Unfortunately, there are several reasons that make this more challenging to the core design than what it seems:

Soft Approach to Monetization

PC/Console approach to free-to-play is generally soft (i.e. primarily based on cosmetics, avoid pay-to-win…), while mobile tends to be quite hardcore in comparison. The softness of PC monetization is even more core to companies such as Valve and especially Riot Games, to which the “no monetization bs” is part of the brand values. This would be very hard to change without harming their reputation.
Same as in most autochess games, in TeamFight Tactics the players can only pay for different cosmetics and for a Battle Pass. Without the massively huge and engaged audience of League of Legends, this monetization approach isn’t able to generate meaningful revenue.
This is not exclusively because we mobile-first devs are a ruthless wallstreet folk which will use every dirty trick in the book to get a bit extra money… but also because mobile games are locked in competition for paid installs. This requires us to get as much revenue as possible from users, as fast as possible, in order to reinvest into players to keep on growing or avoid withering.
The business model of League of Legends or Fortnite is based on their extreme popularity: They already have massive amounts of highly engaged active users, so their strategy is to keep them playing and have a monetization system that, while doesn’t make as much money from the players as it could do on the short term, generates a decent amount of revenue over a longer period of time.
Games that have this soft f2p approach have it very hard to reach enough ARPPU to make paid users profitable, given the insanely high mobile CPIs. This may not be an issue to big IPs and games that are able to bring many organic players (Fortnite, League of Legends…), but it is a big issue for those that can’t attract such a big number of players due to their organic appeal.
Due to its core characteristics (strategic, number-based, complex…), Autochess is unlikely to be a massive appeal product, and therefore won’t fit into the cosmetics model. It’s a game that will have a smaller audience of highly engaged players, and therefore will require a more aggressive monetization to reach similar results.

FINAL THOUGHTS

The history of the autochess genre serves as an example of the risks of design endogamy: The devsphere rushed to clone Auto Chess, and before a year all the major contenders were in the board. But that speed came at a cost: None of these projects has brought the concept much further than its original conception, and in doing so they haven’t solved any of the core issues.
https://preview.redd.it/iw82bogsbpg61.png?width=1280&format=png&auto=webp&s=9a197aa1fcb9ace73d6795103d20a4101ce7ddb5
The folks at Riot games developed the TeamFight Tactics in less than 5 months. This allowed them to release while the hype was still at its peak… but it also meant it added just a couple of improvements, and it’s otherwise very similar to the original Auto Chess mod.
After seeing all these projects fail to meet the big expectations that were placed on them, the question is if perhaps the best approach was to avoid rushing, and instead tackle the genre with a title that is not a clone, but rather a more groomed, accessible and innovative successor of the original idea.
In our next article on this series will make an attempt to see how such a game could be, rethinking the spirit and fresh design ideas of autochess to solve the issues mentioned above. (May take a while though, I want to focus on smaller articles for a couple of months…)
Meanwhile, if you want to read more about this genre, we suggest you these awesome articles from the folks at DoF: Why Auto-Chess can’t monetize – and how to fix that and How Riot can turn TFT into a billion dollar game

Special Thanks to…

These articles wouldn’t have been possible with the collaboration of ~300 members of the reddit communities of the different auto chess games who provided us with feedback and data. You folks have been incredible solving all our doubts. One thing that this genre has is some of the most awesome players around.
So big kudos for Brxm1, Erfinder Steve, Xinth, Zofia the Fierce, STRK1911, LontongSinga22, bezacho, hete, NeroVingian, marling2305, NOVA9INE , asidcabeJ, Eidallor, Rhai, Lozarian, bwdm, Toxic, Ruala, Papa Shango, MrMkay, Dread0, L7, kilmerluiz, Amikals, Sworith, Tankull, B., hete, Bour, Denzel, DeCeddy, Diaa, hamoudaxp, Benjamin “ManiaK” Depinois, Katunopolis, DanTheMan, MikelKDAplayer, 0nid, Tobocto, Tiny Rick, phuwin, Alcibiades, triceps, d20diceman, shadebedlam, stinky binky, Tutu, Myuura, suds, Kapo, Hearthstoned, Engagex, Pietrovosky, Daydreamer, Doctor Heckle, Ignis, ShawnE, NastierNate, LeCJ, Nene Thomas, Chris, trinitus_minibus, Nah, Kaubenjunge1337, Mudhutter, Asurakap, Nicky V, shinsplintshurts, bobknows27, Willem (Larry David Official on Steam), Jonathan, Dinomit24, Monstertaco, GangGreen69, Veshral Amadeus Salieri (…lol!), Kuscomem, Cmacu, Pioplu, Dilemily, qulhuae, Ilmo, MarvMind, facu1ty, crayzieap, Saint Expedite, Lobbyse, Lukino , tomes, Blitzy24, Mcmooserton, magicmerl, i4got2putsumpantzon, radicalminusone, Pipoxo, Kharambit, Bricklebrah, Rbagderp, Merforga, Superzuhong, Mo2gon, MoS.Tetu, MeBigBwainy, Zokus, CoyoteSandstorm, Stehnis, Noctis, Fkdn, Ray, Fairs1912, Fairs1912, Krakowski, HolyKrapp, Damadud, Pentium, Mach, Mudak, CaptSteffo, jwsw1990, Omaivapanda, Inquisitor Binks, Jack, yggdranix, GoodLuckM8, Centy, Prabuddha (aka Walla), dtan, Philosokitteh, Doms, ZEDD, Calloween, Synsane, Kaluma, GordonTremeshko , Djouni, DOGE, haveitall, ANIM4SSO, Task Manager, Submersed, BAKE, Viniv, La Tortuga Zorroberto, BixLe, Rafabeen, Blzane, bdlck666, FatCockNinja86, R.U.Sty, Yopsif, blesk, Quaest0r, FanOfTaylor, StaunchDruid, Rushkoski and everyone else that took some minutes to help us out on the article.
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A Detailed Summary of Every Single Reason Why I am Bullish on Ethereum

The following will be a list of the many reasons why I hold and am extremely bullish on ETH.

This is an extremely long post. If you just want the hopium without the detail, read the TL;DR at the bottom.

ETH 2.0

As we all know, ETH 2.0 phase 0 is right around the corner. This will lock up ETH and stakers will earn interest on their ETH in return for securing the network. Next comes phase 1 where the ETH 2 shards are introduced, shards are essentially parallel blockchains which are each responsible for a different part of Ethereum’s workload, think of it like a multi-core processor vs a single core processor. During phase 1, these shards will only act as data availability layers and won’t actually process transactions yet. However, their data can be utilised by the L2 scaling solution, rollups, increasing Ethereum’s throughput in transactions per second up to 100,000 TPS.
After phase 1 comes phase 1.5 which will move the ETH 1.0 chain into an ETH 2 shard and Ethereum will be fully secured by proof of stake. This means that ETH issuance will drop from around 5% per year to less than 1% and with EIP-1559, ETH might become a deflationary asset, but more on that later.
Finally, with ETH 2.0 phase two, each shard will be fully functional chains. With 64 of them, we can expect the base layer of Ethereum to scale around 64x, not including the massive scaling which comes from layer 2 scaling solutions like rollups as previously mentioned.
While the scaling benefits and ETH issuance reduction which comes with ETH 2.0 will be massive, they aren’t the only benefits. We also get benefits such as increased security from PoS compared to PoW, a huge energy efficiency improvement due to the removal of PoW and also the addition of eWASM which will allow contracts to be programmed in a wide range of programming languages, opening the floodgates for millions of web devs who want to be involved in Ethereum but don’t know Ethereum’s programming language, Solidity.

EIP-1559 and ETH scarcity

As I covered in a previous post of mine, ETH doesn’t have a supply cap like Bitcoin. Instead, it has a monetary policy of “minimum viable issuance”, not only is this is a good thing for network security, but with the addition of EIP-1559, it leaves the door open to the possibility of ETH issuance going negative. In short, EIP-1559 changes the fee market to make transaction prices more efficient (helping to alleviate high gas fees!) by burning a variable base fee which changes based on network usage demand rather than using a highest bidder market where miners simply include who pays them the most. This will result in most of the ETH being paid in transaction fees being burned. As of late, the amount which would be burned if EIP-1559 was in Ethereum right now would make ETH a deflationary asset!

Layer 2 Scaling

In the mean time while we are waiting for ETH 2.0, layer 2 scaling is here. Right now, projects such as Deversifi or Loopring utilise rollups to scale to thousands of tx/s on their decentralised exchange platforms or HoneySwap which uses xDai to offer a more scalable alternative to UniSwap. Speaking of which, big DeFi players like UniSwap and Synthetix are actively looking into using optimistic rollups to scale while maintaining composability between DeFi platforms. The most bullish thing about L2 scaling is all of the variety of options. Here’s a non exhaustive list of Ethereum L2 scaling solutions: - Aztec protocol (L2 scaling + privacy!) - ZKSync - Loopring - Raiden - Arbitrum Rollups - xDai - OMGNetwork - Matic - FuelLabs - Starkware - Optimism - Celer Network - + Many more

DeFi and Composability

If you’re reading this, I am sure you are aware of the phenomena which is Decentralised Finance (DeFi or more accurately, open finance). Ethereum is the first platform to offer permissionless and immutable financial services which when interacting with each other, lead to unprecedented composability and innovation in financial applications. A whole new world of possibilities are opening up thanks to this composability as it allows anyone to take existing pieces of open source code from other DeFi projects, put them together like lego pieces (hence the term money legos) and create something the world has never seen before. None of this was possible before Ethereum because typically financial services are heavily regulated and FinTech is usually proprietary software, so you don’t have any open source lego bricks to build off and you have to build everything you need from scratch. That is if what you want to do is even legal for a centralised institution!
Oh, and if you think that DeFi was just a fad and the bubble has popped, guess again! Total value locked in DeFi is currently at an all time high. Don’t believe me? Find out for yourself on the DeFi Pulse website.

NFTs and tokeniation

NFTs or “Non-Fungible Tokens” - despite the name which may confuse a layman - are a basic concept. They are unique tokens with their own unique attributes. This allows you to create digital art, human readable names for your ETH address (see ENS names and unstoppable domains), breedable virtual collectible creatures like crypto kitties, ownable in game assets like Gods Unchained cards or best of all in my opinion, tokenised ownership of real world assets which can even be split into pieces (this doesn’t necessarily require an NFT. Fungible tokens can be/are used for some of the following use cases). This could be tokenised ownership of real estate (see RealT), tokenised ownership of stocks, bonds and other financial assets (which by the way makes them tradable 24/7 and divisible unlike through the traditional system) or even tokenised ownership of the future income of a celebrity or athlete (see when NBA player Spencer Dinwiddie tokenized his own NBA contract.)

Institutional Adoption

Ethereum is by far the most widely adopted blockchain by enterprises. Ethereum’s Enterprise Ethereum Alliance (EEA) is the largest blockchain-enterprise partnership program and Ethereum is by far the most frequently leveraged blockchain for proof of concepts and innovation in the blockchain space by enterprises. Meanwhile, there are protocols like the Baseline protocol which is a shared framework which allows enterprises to use Ethereum as a common frame of reference and a base settlement layer without having to give up privacy when settling on the public Ethereum mainnet. This framework makes adopting Ethereum much easier for other enterprises.

Institutional Investment

One of Bitcoin’s biggest things it has going for it right now is the growing institutional investment. In case you were wondering, Ethereum has this too! Grayscale offers investment in the cryptocurrency space for financial institutions and their Ethereum fund has already locked up more than 2% of the total supply of ETH. Not only this, but as businesses transact on Ethereum and better understand it, not only will they buy up ETH to pay for their transactions, but they will also realise that much like Bitcoin, Ethereum is a scarce asset. Better yet, a scarce asset which offers yield. As a result, I expect to see companies having ETH holdings become the norm just like how Bitcoin is becoming more widespread on companies’ balance sheets.

The state of global markets

With asset prices in almost every asset class at or near all-time highs and interest rates lower than ever and even negative in some cases, there really aren’t many good opportunities in the traditional financial system right now. Enter crypto - clearly the next evolution of financial services (as I explained in the section on DeFi earlier in this post), with scarce assets built in at the protocol layer, buying BTC or ETH is a lot like buying shares in TCP/IP in 1990 (that is if the underlying protocols of the internet could be invested in which they couldn’t). Best of all, major cryptos are down from their all-time highs anywhere between 35% for BTC or 70% for ETH and much more for many altcoins. This means that they can significantly appreciate in value before entering uncharted, speculative bubble territory.
While of course we could fall dramatically at any moment in the current macro financial conditions, as a longer term play, crypto is very alluring. The existing financial system has shown that it is in dire need of replacing and the potential replacement has started rearing its head in the form of crypto and DeFi.

Improvements in user onboarding and abstracting away complexity

Ethereum has started making huge leaps forward in terms of usability for the end user. We now have ENS names and unstoppable domains which allow you to send ETH to yournamehere.ETH or TrickyTroll.crypto (I don’t actually have that domain, that’s just an example). No longer do you have to check every character of your ugly hexadecimal 0x43AB96D… ETH address to ensure you’re sending your ETH to the right person. We also have smart contract wallets like Argent wallet or the Gnosis safe. These allow for users to access their wallets and interact with DeFi self-custodially from an app on their phone without having to record a private key or recovery phrase. Instead, they offer social recovery and their UI is straight forward enough for anyone who uses a smart phone to understand. Finally, for the more experienced users, DApps like Uniswap have pretty, super easy to use graphical user interfaces and can be used by anyone who knows how to run and use a browser extension like Metamask.

The lack of an obvious #1 ETH killer

One of Ethereum’s biggest threats is for it to be overthrown by a so-called “Ethereum killer” blockchain which claims to do everything Ethereum can do and sometimes more. While there are competitors which are each formidable to a certain extent such as Polkadot, Cardano and EOS, each have their own weaknesses. For example, Polkadot and Cardano are not fully operational yet and EOS is much more centralised than Ethereum. As a result, none of these competitors have any significant network effects just yet relative to the behemoth which is Ethereum. This doesn’t mean that these projects aren’t a threat. In fact, I am sure that projects like Polkadot (which is more focused on complimenting Ethereum than killing it) will take a slice out of Ethereum’s pie. However, I am still very confident that Ethereum will remain on top due to the lack of a clear number 2 smart contract platform. Since none of these ETH killers stands out as the second place smart contract platform, it makes it much harder for one project to create a network effect which even begins to threaten Ethereum’s dominance. This leads me onto my next reason - network effects.

Network effects

This is another topic which I made a previous post on. The network effect is why Bitcoin is still the number one cryptocurrency and by such a long way. Bitcoin is not the most technologically advanced cryptocurrency. However, it has the most widespread name recognition and the most adoption in most metrics (ETH beats in in some metrics these days). The network effect is also why most people use Zoom and Facebook messengeWhatsApp despite the existence of free, private, end to end encrypted alternatives which have all the same features (Jitsi for the zoom alternative and Signal for the private messenger app. I highly recommend both. Let’s get their network effects going!). It is the same for Bitcoin. People don’t want to have to learn about or set up a wallet for alternative options. People like what is familiar and what other people use. Nobody wants to be “that guy” who makes you download yet another app and account you have to remember the password/private key for. In the same way, Enterprises don’t want to have to create a bridge between their existing systems and a dozen different blockchains. Developers don’t want to have to create DeFi money legos from scratch on a new chain if they can just plug in to existing services like Uniswap. Likewise, users don’t want to have to download another browser extension to use DApps on another chain if they already use Ethereum. I know personally I have refrained from investing in altcoins because I would have to install another app on my hardware wallet or remember another recovery phrase.
Overthrowing Ethereum’s network effect is one hell of a big task these days. Time is running out for the ETH killers.

Ethereum is the most decentralised and provably neutral smart contract platform

Ethereum is also arguably the most decentralised and provably neutral smart contract platform (except for maybe Ethereum Classic on the neutrality part). Unlike some smart contract platforms, you can’t round up everyone at the Ethereum Foundation or any select group of people and expect to be able to stop the network. Not only this, but the Ethereum foundation doesn’t have the ability to print more ETH or push through changes as they wish like some people would lead you on to believe. The community would reject detrimental EIPs and hard fork. Ever since the DAO hack, the Ethereum community has made it clear that it will not accept EIPs which attempt to roll back the chain even to recover hacked funds (see EIP-999).
Even if governments around the world wanted to censor the Ethereum blockchain, under ETH 2.0’s proof of stake, it would be incredibly costly and would require a double digit percentage of the total ETH supply, much of which would be slashed (meaning they would lose it) as punishment for running dishonest validator nodes. This means that unlike with proof of work where a 51% attacker can keep attacking the network, under proof of stake, an attacker can only perform the attack a couple of times before they lose all of their ETH. This makes attacks much less financially viable than it is on proof of work chains. Network security is much more than what I laid out above and I am far from an expert but the improved resistance to 51% attacks which PoS provides is significant.
Finally, with the US dollar looking like it will lose its reserve currency status and the existing wire transfer system being outdated, superpowers like China won’t want to use US systems and the US won’t want to use a Chinese system. Enter Ethereum, the provably neutral settlement layer where the USA and China don’t have to trust each other or each other’s banks because they can trust Ethereum. While it may sound like a long shot, it does make sense if Ethereum hits a multi-trillion dollar market cap that it is the most secure and neutral way to transfer value between these adversaries. Not to mention if much of the world’s commerce were to be settled in the same place - on Ethereum - then it would make sense for governments to settle on the same platform.

ETH distribution is decentralised

Thanks to over 5 years of proof of work - a system where miners have to sell newly minted ETH to pay for electricity costs - newly mined ETH has found its way into the hands of everyday people who buy ETH off miners selling on exchnages. As pointed out by u/AdamSC1 in his analysis of the top 10K ETH addresses (I highly recommend reading this if you haven’t already), the distribution of ETH is actually slightly more decentralised than Bitcoin with the top 10,000 ETH wallets holding 56.70% of ETH supply compared to the top 10,000 Bitcoin wallets which hold 57.44% of the Bitcoin supply. This decentralised distribution means that the introduction of staking won’t centralise ETH in the hands of a few wallets who could then control the network. This is an advantage for ETH which many proof of stake ETH killers will never have as they never used PoW to distribute funds widely throughout the community and these ETH killers often did funding rounds giving large numbers of tokens to VC investors.

The community

Finally, while I may be biased, I think that Ethereum has the friendliest community. Anecdotally, I find that the Ethereum developer community is full of forward thinking people who want to make the world a better place and build a better future, many of whom are altruistic and don’t always act in their best interests. Compare this to the much more conservative, “at least we’re safe while the world burns” attitude which many Bitcoiners have. I don’t want to generalise too much here as the Bitcoin community is great too and there are some wonderful people there. But the difference is clear if you compare the daily discussion of Bitcoin to the incredibly helpful and welcoming daily discussion of EthFinance who will happily answer your noob questions without calling you an idiot and telling you to do you own research (there are plenty more examples in any of the daily threads). Or the very helpful folks over at EthStaker who will go out of their way to help you set up an ETH 2.0 staking node on the testnets (Shoutout to u/superphiz who does a lot of work over in that sub!). Don’t believe me? Head over to those subs and see for yourself.
Please don’t hate on me if you disagree about which project has the best community, it is just my very biased personal opinion and I respect your opinion if you disagree! :)

TL;DR:

submitted by Tricky_Troll to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

A Detailed Summary of Every Single Reason Why I am Bullish on ETH.

The following will be a list of the many reasons why I hold and am extremely bullish on ETH.

This is an extremely long post. If you just want the hopium without the detail, read the TL;DR at the bottom.

ETH 2.0

As we all know, ETH 2.0 phase 0 is right around the corner. This will lock up ETH and stakers will earn interest on their ETH in return for securing the network. Next comes phase 1 where the ETH 2 shards are introduced, shards are essentially parallel blockchains which are each responsible for a different part of Ethereum’s workload, think of it like a multi-core processor vs a single core processor. During phase 1, these shards will only act as data availability layers and won’t actually process transactions yet. However, their data can be utilised by the L2 scaling solution, rollups, increasing Ethereum’s throughput in transactions per second up to 100,000 TPS.
After phase 1 comes phase 1.5 which will move the ETH 1.0 chain into an ETH 2 shard and Ethereum will be fully secured by proof of stake. This means that ETH issuance will drop from around 5% per year to less than 1% and with EIP-1559, ETH might become a deflationary asset, but more on that later.
Finally, with ETH 2.0 phase two, each shard will be fully functional chains. With 64 of them, we can expect the base layer of Ethereum to scale around 64x, not including the massive scaling which comes from layer 2 scaling solutions like rollups as previously mentioned.
While the scaling benefits and ETH issuance reduction which comes with ETH 2.0 will be massive, they aren’t the only benefits. We also get benefits such as increased security from PoS compared to PoW, a huge energy efficiency improvement due to the removal of PoW and also the addition of eWASM which will allow contracts to be programmed in a wide range of programming languages, opening the floodgates for millions of web devs who want to be involved in Ethereum but don’t know Ethereum’s programming language, Solidity.

EIP-1559 and ETH scarcity

As I covered in a previous post of mine, ETH doesn’t have a supply cap like Bitcoin. Instead, it has a monetary policy of “minimum viable issuance”, not only is this is a good thing for network security, but with the addition of EIP-1559, it leaves the door open to the possibility of ETH issuance going negative. In short, EIP-1559 changes the fee market to make transaction prices more efficient (helping to alleviate high gas fees!) by burning a variable base fee which changes based on network usage demand rather than using a highest bidder market where miners simply include who pays them the most. This will result in most of the ETH being paid in transaction fees being burned. As of late, the amount which would be burned if EIP-1559 was in Ethereum right now would make ETH a deflationary asset!

Layer 2 Scaling

In the mean time while we are waiting for ETH 2.0, layer 2 scaling is here. Right now, projects such as Deversifi or Loopring utilise rollups to scale to thousands of tx/s on their decentralised exchange platforms or HoneySwap which uses xDai to offer a more scalable alternative to UniSwap. Speaking of which, big DeFi players like UniSwap and Synthetix are actively looking into using optimistic rollups to scale while maintaining composability between DeFi platforms. The most bullish thing about L2 scaling is all of the variety of options. Here’s a non exhaustive list of Ethereum L2 scaling solutions: - Aztec protocol (L2 scaling + privacy!) - ZKSync - Loopring - Raiden - Arbitrum Rollups - xDai - OMGNetwork - Matic - FuelLabs - Starkware - Optimism - Celer Network - + Many more

DeFi and Composability

If you’re reading this, I am sure you are aware of the phenomena which is Decentralised Finance (DeFi or more accurately, open finance). Ethereum is the first platform to offer permissionless and immutable financial services which when interacting with each other, lead to unprecedented composability and innovation in financial applications. A whole new world of possibilities are opening up thanks to this composability as it allows anyone to take existing pieces of open source code from other DeFi projects, put them together like lego pieces (hence the term money legos) and create something the world has never seen before. None of this was possible before Ethereum because typically financial services are heavily regulated and FinTech is usually proprietary software, so you don’t have any open source lego bricks to build off and you have to build everything you need from scratch. That is if what you want to do is even legal for a centralised institution!
Oh, and if you think that DeFi was just a fad and the bubble has popped, guess again! Total value locked in DeFi is currently at an all time high. Don’t believe me? Find out for yourself at: https://defipulse.com

NFTs and tokeniation

NFTs or “Non-Fungible Tokens” - despite the name which may confuse a layman - are a basic concept. They are unique tokens with their own unique attributes. This allows you to create digital art, human readable names for your ETH address (see ENS names and unstoppable domains), breedable virtual collectible creatures like crypto kitties, ownable in game assets like Gods Unchained cards or best of all in my opinion, tokenised ownership of real world assets which can even be split into pieces (this doesn’t necessarily require an NFT. Fungible tokens can be/are used for some of the following use cases). This could be tokenised ownership of real estate (see RealT), tokenised ownership of stocks, bonds and other financial assets (which by the way makes them tradable 24/7 and divisible unlike through the traditional system) or even tokenised ownership of the future income of a celebrity or athlete (see when NBA Star Spencer Dinwiddie Tokenized His Own NBA Contract.

Institutional Adoption

Ethereum is by far the most widely adopted blockchain by enterprises. Ethereum’s Enterprise Ethereum Alliance (EEA) is the largest blockchain-enterprise partnership program and Ethereum is by far the most frequently leveraged blockchain for proof of concepts and innovation in the blockchain space by enterprises. Meanwhile, there are protocols like the Baseline protocol which is a shared framework which allows enterprises to use Ethereum as a common frame of reference and a base settlement layer without having to give up privacy when settling on the public Ethereum mainnet. This framework makes adopting Ethereum much easier for other enterprises.

Institutional Investment

One of Bitcoin’s biggest things it has going for it right now is the growing institutional investment. In case you were wondering, Ethereum has this too! Grayscale offers investment in the cryptocurrency space for financial institutions and their Ethereum fund has already locked up more than 2% of the total supply of ETH. Not only this, but as businesses transact on Ethereum and better understand it, not only will they buy up ETH to pay for their transactions, but they will also realise that much like Bitcoin, Ethereum is a scarce asset. Better yet, a scarce asset which offers yield. As a result, I expect to see companies having ETH holdings become the norm just like how Bitcoin is becoming more widespread on companies’ balance sheets.

The state of global markets

With asset prices in almost every asset class at or near all-time highs and interest rates lower than ever and even negative in some cases, there really aren’t many good opportunities in the traditional financial system right now. Enter crypto - clearly the next evolution of financial services (as I explained in the section on DeFi earlier in this post), with scarce assets built in at the protocol layer, buying BTC or ETH is a lot like buying shares in TCP/IP in 1990 (that is if the underlying protocols of the internet could be invested in which they couldn’t). Best of all, major cryptos are down from their all-time highs anywhere between 35% for BTC or 70% for ETH and much more for many altcoins. This means that they can significantly appreciate in value before entering uncharted, speculative bubble territory.
While of course we could fall dramatically at any moment in the current macro financial conditions, as a longer term play, crypto is very alluring. The existing financial system has shown that it is in dire need of replacing and the potential replacement has started rearing its head in the form of crypto and DeFi.

Improvements in user onboarding and abstracting away complexity

Ethereum has started making huge leaps forward in terms of usability for the end user. We now have ENS names and unstoppable domains which allow you to send ETH to yournamehere.ETH or TrickyTroll.crypto (I don’t actually have that domain, that’s just an example). No longer do you have to check every character of your ugly hexadecimal 0x43AB96D… ETH address to ensure you’re sending your ETH to the right person. We also have smart contract wallets like Argent wallet or the Gnosis safe. These allow for users to access their wallets and interact with DeFi self-custodially from an app on their phone without having to record a private key or recovery phrase. Instead, they offer social recovery and their UI is straight forward enough for anyone who uses a smart phone to understand. Finally, for the more experienced users, DApps like Uniswap have pretty, super easy to use graphical user interfaces and can be used by anyone who knows how to run and use a browser extension like Metamask.

The lack of an obvious #1 ETH killer

One of Ethereum’s biggest threats is for it to be overthrown by a so-called “Ethereum killer” blockchain which claims to do everything Ethereum can do and sometimes more. While there are competitors which are each formidable to a certain extent such as Polkadot, Cardano and EOS, each have their own weaknesses. For example, Polkadot and Cardano are not fully operational yet and EOS is much more centralised than Ethereum. As a result, none of these competitors have any significant network effects just yet relative to the behemoth which is Ethereum. This doesn’t mean that these projects aren’t a threat. In fact, I am sure that projects like Polkadot (which is more focused on complimenting Ethereum than killing it) will take a slice out of Ethereum’s pie. However, I am still very confident that Ethereum will remain on top due to the lack of a clear number 2 smart contract platform. Since none of these ETH killers stands out as the second place smart contract platform, it makes it much harder for one project to create a network effect which even begins to threaten Ethereum’s dominance. This leads me onto my next reason - network effects.

Network effects

This is another topic which I made a previous post on. The network effect is why Bitcoin is still the number one cryptocurrency and by such a long way. Bitcoin is not the most technologically advanced cryptocurrency. However, it has the most widespread name recognition and the most adoption in most metrics (ETH beats in in some metrics these days). The network effect is also why most people use Zoom and Facebook messengeWhatsApp despite the existence of free, private, end to end encrypted alternatives which have all the same features (https://meet.jit.si/ for zoom alternative and Signal for the private messenger app. I highly recommend both. Let’s get their network effects going!). It is the same for Bitcoin. People don’t want to have to learn about or set up a wallet for alternative options. People like what is familiar and what other people use. Nobody wants to be “that guy” who makes you download yet another app and account you have to remember the password/private key for. In the same way, Enterprises don’t want to have to create a bridge between their existing systems and a dozen different blockchains. Developers don’t want to have to create DeFi money legos from scratch on a new chain if they can just plug in to existing services like Uniswap. Likewise, users don’t want to have to download another browser extension to use DApps on another chain if they already use Ethereum. I know personally I have refrained from investing in altcoins because I would have to install another app on my hardware wallet or remember another recovery phrase.
Overthrowing Ethereum’s network effect is one hell of a big task these days. Time is running out for the ETH killers.

Ethereum is the most decentralised and provably neutral smart contract platform

Ethereum is also arguably the most decentralised and provably neutral smart contract platform (except for maybe Ethereum Classic on the neutrality part). Unlike some smart contract platforms, you can’t round up everyone at the Ethereum Foundation or any select group of people and expect to be able to stop the network. Not only this, but the Ethereum foundation doesn’t have the ability to print more ETH or push through changes as they wish like some people would lead you on to believe. The community would reject detrimental EIPs and hard fork. Ever since the DAO hack, the Ethereum community has made it clear that it will not accept EIPs which attempt to roll back the chain even to recover hacked funds (see EIP-999).
Even if governments around the world wanted to censor the Ethereum blockchain, under ETH 2.0’s proof of stake, it would be incredibly costly and would require a double digit percentage of the total ETH supply, much of which would be slashed (meaning they would lose it) as punishment for running dishonest validator nodes. This means that unlike with proof of work where a 51% attacker can keep attacking the network, under proof of stake, an attacker can only perform the attack a couple of times before they lose all of their ETH. This makes attacks much less financially viable than it is on proof of work chains. Network security is much more than what I laid out above and I am far from an expert but the improved resistance to 51% attacks which PoS provides is significant.
Finally, with the US dollar looking like it will lose its reserve currency status and the existing wire transfer system being outdated, superpowers like China won’t want to use US systems and the US won’t want to use a Chinese system. Enter Ethereum, the provably neutral settlement layer where the USA and China don’t have to trust each other or each other’s banks because they can trust Ethereum. While it may sound like a long shot, it does make sense if Ethereum hits a multi-trillion dollar market cap that it is the most secure and neutral way to transfer value between these adversaries. Not to mention if much of the world’s commerce were to be settled in the same place - on Ethereum - then it would make sense for governments to settle on the same platform.

ETH distribution is decentralised

Thanks to over 5 years of proof of work - a system where miners have to sell newly minted ETH to pay for electricity costs - newly mined ETH has found its way into the hands of everyday people who buy ETH off miners selling on exchnages. As pointed out by u/AdamSC1 in his analysis of the top 10K ETH addresses (I highly recommend reading this if you haven’t already), the distribution of ETH is actually slightly more decentralised than Bitcoin with the top 10,000 ETH wallets holding 56.70% of ETH supply compared to the top 10,000 Bitcoin wallets which hold 57.44% of the Bitcoin supply. This decentralised distribution means that the introduction of staking won’t centralise ETH in the hands of a few wallets who could then control the network. This is an advantage for ETH which many proof of stake ETH killers will never have as they never used PoW to distribute funds widely throughout the community and these ETH killers often did funding rounds giving large numbers of tokens to VC investors.

The community

Finally, while I may be biased, I think that Ethereum has the friendliest community. Anecdotally, I find that the Ethereum developer community is full of forward thinking people who want to make the world a better place and build a better future, many of whom are altruistic and don’t always act in their best interests. Compare this to the much more conservative, “at least we’re safe while the world burns” attitude which many Bitcoiners have. I don’t want to generalise too much here as the Bitcoin community is great too and there are some wonderful people there. But the difference is clear if you compare the daily discussion of Bitcoin to the incredibly helpful and welcoming daily discussion of EthFinance who will happily answer your noob questions without calling you an idiot and telling you to do you own research (there are plenty more examples in any of the daily threads). Or the very helpful folks over at EthStaker who will go out of their way to help you set up an ETH 2.0 staking node on the testnets (Shoutout to u/superphiz who does a lot of work over in that sub!). Don’t believe me? Head over to those subs and see for yourself.
Please don’t hate on me if you disagree about which project has the best community, it is just my very biased personal opinion and I respect your opinion if you disagree! :)

TL;DR:

submitted by Tricky_Troll to ethtrader [link] [comments]

Deep Dive into Facedrive (FD.V) - Short Thesis, Target $0.43

Quick Data

Current Price: $11.06
Shares Outstanding: 93,729,980
Market Cap: 1.037 billion
TTM Revenue: 0.91 million
Price/Sales: 1140x
​

Background

Facedrive is a ridesharing company that is designed to incentivize and empower the green and socially responsible consumer through the use of its carbon neutral ridesharing platform. The company was founded in January 2016 by Imran Ali Khan and Junaid Razvi but only became operational in late 2018. In August 2019 Facedrive completed a reverse take-over with High Mountain Resources and listed on the TSX Venture Exchange. Since listing on the TSX-V Facedrive has also completed a number of small acquisitions to expand its offerings both in the rideshare market and other "Facedrive Verticals".
​

Value Proposition

In its IPO filing statement issued 14 months ago Facedrive outlined a number of growth initiatives including:
As of today Facedrive has only achieved one of these objectives - entering the Ottawa market. In fact Facedrive has yet to expand out of Ontario with its operations limited to the Greater Toronto Area, Ottawa, Hamilton, London, Guelph, Kitchener, Waterloo, Cambridge and Orillia. Since the beginning Facedrive has been incredibly slow in rolling out their app to targeted cities. Despite being founded in January 2016 and receiving a Toronto license in 2017 the app only became operational in late 2018.
As for 3% market penetration Facedrive's gross revenue for the first 6 months of this year was $999 thousand. The rideshare market for Canada this year (adjusted for Covid) is $1.52 billion ( https://www.statista.com/outlook/368/108/ride-hailing-taxi/canada). Since Facedrive only operates in about 20% of Canada's markets, population adjusted, the current addressable market is closer to $300 million. Extrapolating Facedrive's gross revenue out to a full year would result in $2 million of revenue or less than 1% of market penetration.
But what about Covid? In the 2nd Q Lyft and Uber reported decreases in rideshare billings of 69% and 73% respectively. Meanwhile Facedrive's gross revenue dropped from $999 thousand in Q1 to $147 thousand in Q2, a drop of 85%. This signals that their market penetration is actually decreasing quarter over quarter.
Value proposition for riders? Facedrive's green initiative? The company began with the initiative to 1) offer electric vehicles); and 2) counter emissions from gas vehicles through an offset program. As of today there is nothing to differentiate Facedrive's offerings from its competitors as both Uber and Lyft now have electric vehicle options. There is no dedicated fleet of electric vehicles driving for Facedrive. Facedrive did donate $2,105 to Forests Ontario in Q1 2019 but there has been no mention of any offset program contributions since the company went public. The main benefit of rideshare programs is still convenience. For Facedrive to compete with Uber and Lyft they need drivers. At this point there are just not enough drivers to produce reasonable wait times. Reviews of the app consistently complain about wait times of up to half an hour. And with the green initiative not being robust enough to differentiate it from its competitors it is just not worth the time.
Value proposition for drivers? Over the last year Facedrive has paid out anywhere from 75% to 83% to drivers. This is slightly higher than Uber and Lyft which average around 75%. But not enough of an incentive for a driver to use Facedrive exclusively. I expect that pretty much all of the revenue Facedrive generates comes from drivers who use multiple platforms.
Conclusion: Facedrive has consistently failed to meet growth targets. Its current market penetration is less than 1% and possibly decreasing. There is no incentive for either drivers or riders to continue using the app when Uber and Lyft are perfectly suitable.
​

Facedrive Verticals

After its IPO Facedrive used a combination of cash and shares to acquire stakes in a number of other ventures which they plan to incorporate into their "ecosystem". Buzz words however do not make a company. None of these ventures generate significant revenue or offer much potential for growth so I'll only cover them briefly.
​
HiRide
This is a carpooling app similar to Poparide except no one uses it and it doesn't generate any revenue. There is also a trivia app HiQ which claims to be a social app that you can enjoy while social distancing (in your carpool?). HiQ claims to have 2 million downloads (Facedrive press releases all of the major milestones) and yet it doesn't rank in the Trivia category for both IOS and Google. I downloaded the app and played for 15 minutes. The app is beyond basic with the most elementary social element. I tired messaging some other players based on similar interests but no one responded. After 15 minutes of answering both outdated and at times repetitive trivia questions I was ranked 794th all time and earned $1. I am also 74th on the weekly list which leads me to believe the app has less than 100 active users. Reading the reviews on Google Play it is a combination of obvious fake reviews (multiple reviews showing up the same day with similar broken English) and people complaining they didn't get their money for answering the trivia questions.
​
Facedrive Marketplace
This launched in May and generated $7 thousand in revenue. The only products available are apparel from Westbrook Inc. (a content company affiliated with Will Smith). Facedrive partnered with Westbrook last year by purchasing a $1 million convertible note. In return they have the right to sell exclusive Westbrook products to their ridership. Curiously Facedrive failed to disclose at the time of the transaction that Westbrook Inc owned 192,338 shares in Facedrive at the time of its IPO. This is a recurrent theme - I give you shares, you give me shares.
​
Facedrive Foods + Food Hwy
Facedrive Foods consists of assets purchased out of bankruptcy from Foodora Canada. The cost was $500K. The assets Facedrive received were Foodora's restaurant and customer list. Customers however had to opt in through e-mail in order for their contact details to be released to Facedrive. Facedrive can not use Foodora's name nor did they acquire any of Foodora's technology. The Facedrive Foods app was developed from scratch and going by reviews it is not that good. The restaurants available are mostly second tier chains listed on pretty much all the food apps. On IOS the app is ranked #157 in the food category currently - they have no market penetration.
Food Hwy is probably the closest thing to a real business Facedrive has acquired. It is another food delivery app, quite niche as it caters to the foreign student market. Facedrive paid $9.1 million in cash and shares for Food Hwy. It expects it to generate $10.5 million in revenue in 2020. No mention of profit, growth rate, or its revenue from prior years. Just an expectation.
​
Facedrive Health
Facedrive Health is pretty much an app + wearable bracelet called TraceScan. Through bluetooth technology it can determine if you have come into contact with someone who has tested positive for Covid-19. Ontario already has a contact tracing app that works through bluetooth and can be downloaded onto one's mobile phone (no need for a bracelet). The official Ontario app only has 8% market penetration despite its ease of use. Facedrive is currently running a pilot with Air Canada for their bracelets but the market for these bracelets is so limited when the free Ontario app does a perfectly fine job in 99% of interactions.
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Tally Technology
Facedrive invested $3 million in cash and shares in this sports prediction company founded by Russell Wilson. Tally's main asset TraceMe was sold last year to Nike. Nike had no interest in the tech that remains under the Tally umbrella. All the top execs at Tally also left for Nike so it is unclear at this point what potential the remaining assets have. https://www.playtally.com
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Steer Holdings
An electric vehicle subscription platform based out of Washington D.C. Another company on the verge of bankruptcy where Facedrive offered up $3.25 million USD worth of shares and in exchange the parent company of Steer purchased $2 million USD worth of shares - I give you shares and you buy some of them back. Again no mention of revenue, profit margins, growth rates or anything in the press release. Just a bunch of buzz words concerning the total addressable market.
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Key Management

Does Facedrive have the management in place to successfully take on the behemoths of Uber and Lyft? Or to penetrate fresh verticals and successfully create a socially responsible ecosystem?
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Junaid Razvi
Co-Founder and Executive Vice President of Facedrive, Razvi currently owns 8,751,930 shares or 9.3% of Facedrive. Prior to founding Facedrive Mr. Razvi was the CEO of an IT company in the Middle East https://www.panarabia.ae . Not much else is known other than they have a horrible website.
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Sayan Navaratnam
Current CEO of Facedrive and owns 32,395,180 shares or 34.75% of Facedrive. He assumed the position of CEO in March 2019 just prior to Facedrive's TSX-V listing application. Mr. Navaratnam at first glance has a respectable resume. He was CEO of A.C. Technical Systems, specializing in security and surveillance systems. From 2014-1019 he was the CEO Connex Telecommunications Corporation. He has an investment arm called the Malar Group which purchased control of both A.C. Technical and Connex. Between 2017 and 2019 Mr. Navaratnam and Malar also took a substantial stake in Facedrive. I suspect Mr. Navaratnam connected with the co-founder Mr. Razvi as they both worked in the IT telecommunications sphere. It appears Malar has an impressive portfolio of companies but most of them are subsidiaries of Connex. Both Mr. Razvi and Mr. Navaratnam are telecommunication and hardware experts who are trying to create a social enterprise digital ecosystem geared towards milennials. They are not millennials.
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Heung Hung Lee
Current CFO of Facedrive. Ms. Lee has been working with Mr. Navaratnam since 2004 when she was the CFO of A.C. Technical Systems. She then became the CFO of Connex before taking the position at Facedrive. Ms. Lee has never been employed by a billion dollar corporation let alone been the CFO of one. Perhaps this position is too overwhelming as Facedrive has failed to file their last 2 quarterly financials on time.
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Jay Wilgar
Jay Wilgar was appointed the chief strategy officer of Facedrive earlier this year. Formerly he was CEO of Newstrike Brands (cannabis company) and prior to Newstrike he was CEO of both a pharmaceutical and a renewable energy company. He has a history of building companies and selling them at opportune times. However he has no experience in technology and again has never been responsible for growing a billion dollar company.
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And that's pretty much it for the brains of the company.
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Shady Dealings

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Mr. Navaratnam's Cash Cow
Prior to becoming a public company, Mr. Navaratnam was generating significant revenue for his companies by billing Facedrive for his companies' services. Mr. Navaratnam's companies under the Malar Group were responsible for not only developing the Facedrive app, but also providing customer and driver support, leasing office space, and marketing the app. Talk about an ecosystem! Here are some snippets from Facedrive's filings:
As at September 30, 2019, $917,236 (December 31, 2018 - $436,626) was due to Dynalync 2000 Inc., a related company controlled by our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. The amount owing is a result of the related company providing consulting services and product development, and the amount is included in the Company’s trade payable. The total expenses charged to the Company for the nine months ended September 30, 2019 were $1,200,300 (2018 - $397,100), which were included in research and development expenses of $702,300 (2018 - $241,300) and operational support expenses of $505,000 (2018 - $155,700).
Facedrive also engages DependableIT through Dynalync, a related company controlled by Sayanthan Navaratnam, the CEO, director and co-founder of Facedrive, to provide call center services to Facedrive.
Facedrive subleases office space in Richmond Hill, Ontario, Scarborough, Ontario, North York, Ontario, Toronto, Ontario, Hamilton, Ontario and Kanata, Ontario from Connex pursuant to a sublease agreement dated April 1, 2019 for $5,000 per month plus applicable taxes.
Since Facedrive has gone public they have moved most of their operations in house and hired their own developers cutting off the related transactions. But what this does show is that Facedrive basically began as a vehicle for its CEO to enrich himself, not only through the issuance of cheap stock (more on that later) but also through Facedrive's expense account.
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Stockhouse
There is a group of posters on Stockhouse that just post the same gibberish day in and day out. Their only posts are on rideshare and big tech bullboards. These are not typical Stockhouse pumpers who own shares as they show up at the same time each day and in collaboration each cover a different talking point. No rocket emojis or "to the moon" memes - just buzz terms taken from press releases spun in a positive light. And they don't discuss any other stocks. You can find some of them here https://stockhouse.com/members/shirleyarman https://stockhouse.com/members/tylermathew https://stockhouse.com/members/xavier https://stockhouse.com/members/tianaa https://stockhouse.com/members/richardsondilam
Their grammar and erudition are also very similar to the fake reviews on the app stores.
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Stock Promotion
The most egregious example of Facedrive's stock promotion is their agreement with Medtronics Online Solutions. Supposedly this is an arm lengths company and yet Google returns nothing. Pursuant to a Consulting Agreement, Medtronics provided and performed marketing and strategic consulting services for and on behalf of Facedrive. In return Medtronics received $8.2 million worth of stock or 800,000 shares.
Medtronics may be responsible for not only market making services (propping up the share price) but also various paid promotion that Facedrive has been engaged in. An example, https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-30-Trillion-Trend-Thats-Bigger-Than-The-Entire-US-Stock-Market.html
You may have also seen Facedrive heavily promoted on Motley Fool as the next Uber or Tesla or whatever is in vogue that week.
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Misleading Press Releases
Pretty much all of Facedrive's press releases are misleading or overly promotional in one way or another. Take for example the press release announcing the appointment of Jay Wilgar. The release states,
Mr. Wilgar launched renewable development firm AIM PowerGen Corporation (“AIM”) and built it and successor companies into energy projects worth approximately $2.5 billion before AIM was acquired by global renewable power firm International Power Canada (IPR-GDF Suez) in 2009
AIM was acquired by International Power in 2009 but not for anywhere near $2.5 billion. In fact AIM was acquired for USD $109 million https://www.evwind.es/2009/10/23/international-power-canada-acquires-aim-powergen-from-renewable-energy-generation/1936
Then there are the HiQ press releases, first announcing 250K downloads, then 500K downloads, then 1 million, then 1.5 million, and then 2 million. From the July 14th press release,
The App has ranked Top 10 Trivia App in over 100 countries, and ranked Top 10 App in over 50 countries. Additionally, HiQ has ranked as the Number 1 Trivia App in Bolivia, Ecuador, Egypt, Nepal, and Pakistan.
None of this is true. The app is lucky to have 100 active users. Furthermore there is no AI algorithm involved as is claimed nor is their any matching based on interests even though this would be incredibly easy to program. The suggested friends appears completely random.

True Value of Facedrive

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Is it worth $1 billion?
The market, both private and public has never valued the company anywhere near $1 billion. Since 2017 Facedrive has issued stock at the following prices (all issues are split adjusted to correspond with the current share count, and converted to CAD):
2017
2018
2019
The shares issued at $1.58 were issued in connection with the amalgamation agreement (IPO). The shares issued at 39 cents were all shares for debt transactions.
Think about this for a second. 22,480,113 shares or 24% of the outstanding shares were issued at a price of 2 cents! The price today is $11.06. What has changed since these shares were issued other than Facedrive has failed to meet any growth objectives and its market penetration along with brand power has dwindled to pretty much irrelevance.
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Why is Facedrive trading at a $1 billion market cap?
As at June 30, 2020, the Company had 85,593,657 Shares subject to contractual lock-up restrictions which will be released on a rolling basis beginning March 16, 2021. 15% of the shares will come out of lock up on March 16, 2021, and for each subsequent 3 months another 15% will become free trading until September 30, 2022 when the final 10% will be released. This leaves only about 8 million shares in the current public float. It does not take much to move the share price in either direction.
Secondly, Facedrive has been promoting the stock in absolute desperation. They have enlisted an army of users to promote the stock on Stockhouse; they have posted fake reviews on both the Apple and Google app stores; they have paid for promotion in various investing publications; they have hired a mysterious marketing company to provide services in exchange for $8.2 million worth of shares. And yet they have done nothing to actually make a dent into their main competitors. Since its listing Facedrive has been more concerned with propping up its share price through stock promotion than it has been promoting its actual business to end users.
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But, but intangibles!
There are none. There is no genius at the helm; there is no disruptive tech; there is no vision. Facedrive's best chance for success was to carve out a niche in the sustainable ridesharing market - capture the 1% of people that would be willing to wait 30 minutes for a ride in an EV. Not a billion dollar proposition but maybe something. Instead they opted for an endless dictionary of buzz words and delusions of grandeur.
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Conclusion
So what is Facedrive's true value? The core of their operations, the ridesharing app, has made virtually no progress since it was developed in 2017. The ridesharing market is indeed a duopoly, and despite Facedrive's worst efforts to promote itself as an eco-conscious alternative it has failed to resonate with its target audience. If Uber or Lyft would be generous enough to purchase Facedrive's customer base (the tech is worthless to them) they might pay 20x net revenue or $20 million.
Given that management has done nothing to grow the business and its business plan is non-existent at worst and schizophrenic at best, it is hard to ascribe any value beyond what Facedrive has paid for the distressed assets they have purchased this year. So maybe another $15 million here (being extremely generous).
Then there is cash on the balance sheet which as of today given the recent acquisitions and burn rate is maybe $5 million.
So $40 million total. This actually sounds like way too much money for what one is getting but it still only equals 43 cents/share. Facedrive is currently trading at $11.06. Even throwing in another $50 million margin of error would still result in a 90% return from a short position.
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submitted by Jean_des_Esseintes to CanadianInvestor [link] [comments]

A detailed summary of every reason why I am bullish on ETH.

The following will be a list of the many reasons why I hold and am extremely bullish on ETH.

This is an extremely long post. If you just want the hopium without the detail, read the TL;DR at the bottom.

ETH 2.0

As we all know, ETH 2.0 phase 0 is right around the corner. This will lock up ETH and stakers will earn interest on their ETH in return for securing the network. Next comes phase 1 where the ETH 2 shards are introduced, shards are essentially parallel blockchains which are each responsible for a different part of Ethereum’s workload, think of it like a multi-core processor vs a single core processor. During phase 1, these shards will only act as data availability layers and won’t actually process transactions yet. However, their data can be utilised by the L2 scaling solution, rollups, increasing Ethereum’s throughput in transactions per second up to 100,000 TPS.
After phase 1 comes phase 1.5 which will move the ETH 1.0 chain into an ETH 2 shard and Ethereum will be fully secured by proof of stake. This means that ETH issuance will drop from around 5% per year to less than 1% and with EIP-1559, ETH might become a deflationary asset, but more on that later.
Finally, with ETH 2.0 phase two, each shard will be fully functional chains. With 64 of them, we can expect the base layer of Ethereum to scale around 64x, not including the massive scaling which comes from layer 2 scaling solutions like rollups as previously mentioned.
While the scaling benefits and ETH issuance reduction which comes with ETH 2.0 will be massive, they aren’t the only benefits. We also get benefits such as increased security from PoS compared to PoW, a huge energy efficiency improvement due to the removal of PoW and also the addition of eWASM which will allow contracts to be programmed in a wide range of programming languages, opening the floodgates for millions of web devs who want to be involved in Ethereum but don’t know Ethereum’s programming language, Solidity.

EIP-1559 and ETH scarcity

As I covered in a previous post of mine, ETH doesn’t have a supply cap like Bitcoin. Instead, it has a monetary policy of “minimum viable issuance”, not only is this is a good thing for network security, but with the addition of EIP-1559, it leaves the door open to the possibility of ETH issuance going negative. In short, EIP-1559 changes the fee market to make transaction prices more efficient (helping to alleviate high gas fees!) by burning a variable base fee which changes based on network usage demand rather than using a highest bidder market where miners simply include who pays them the most. This will result in most of the ETH being paid in transaction fees being burned. As of late, the amount which would be burned if EIP-1559 was in Ethereum right now would make ETH a deflationary asset!

Layer 2 Scaling

In the mean time while we are waiting for ETH 2.0, layer 2 scaling is here. Right now, projects such as Deversifi or Loopring utilise rollups to scale to thousands of tx/s on their decentralised exchange platforms or HoneySwap which uses xDai to offer a more scalable alternative to UniSwap. Speaking of which, big DeFi players like UniSwap and Synthetix are actively looking into using optimistic rollups to scale while maintaining composability between DeFi platforms. The most bullish thing about L2 scaling is all of the variety of options. Here’s a non exhaustive list of Ethereum L2 scaling solutions: - Aztec protocol (L2 scaling + privacy!) - ZKSync - Loopring - Raiden - Arbitrum Rollups - xDai - OMGNetwork - Matic - FuelLabs - Starkware - Optimism - Celer Network - + Many more

DeFi and Composability

If you’re reading this, I am sure you are aware of the phenomena which is Decentralised Finance (DeFi or more accurately, open finance). Ethereum is the first platform to offer permissionless and immutable financial services which when interacting with each other, lead to unprecedented composability and innovation in financial applications. A whole new world of possibilities are opening up thanks to this composability as it allows anyone to take existing pieces of open source code from other DeFi projects, put them together like lego pieces (hence the term money legos) and create something the world has never seen before. None of this was possible before Ethereum because typically financial services are heavily regulated and FinTech is usually proprietary software, so you don’t have any open source lego bricks to build off and you have to build everything you need from scratch. That is if what you want to do is even legal for a centralised institution!
Oh, and if you think that DeFi was just a fad and the bubble has popped, guess again! Total value locked in DeFi is currently at an all time high. Don’t believe me? Find out for yourself at: https://defipulse.com

NFTs and tokeniation

NFTs or “Non-Fungible Tokens” - despite the name which may confuse a layman - are a basic concept. They are unique tokens with their own unique attributes. This allows you to create digital art, human readable names for your ETH address (see ENS names and unstoppable domains), breedable virtual collectible creatures like crypto kitties, ownable in game assets like Gods Unchained cards or best of all in my opinion, tokenised ownership of real world assets which can even be split into pieces (this doesn’t necessarily require an NFT. Fungible tokens can be/are used for some of the following use cases). This could be tokenised ownership of real estate (see RealT), tokenised ownership of stocks, bonds and other financial assets (which by the way makes them tradable 24/7 and divisible unlike through the traditional system) or even tokenised ownership of the future income of a celebrity or athlete (see when NBA Star Spencer Dinwiddie Tokenized His Own NBA Contract.

Institutional Adoption

Ethereum is by far the most widely adopted blockchain by enterprises. Ethereum’s Enterprise Ethereum Alliance (EEA) is the largest blockchain-enterprise partnership program and Ethereum is by far the most frequently leveraged blockchain for proof of concepts and innovation in the blockchain space by enterprises. Meanwhile, there are protocols like the Baseline protocol which is a shared framework which allows enterprises to use Ethereum as a common frame of reference and a base settlement layer without having to give up privacy when settling on the public Ethereum mainnet. This framework makes adopting Ethereum much easier for other enterprises.

Institutional Investment

One of Bitcoin’s biggest things it has going for it right now is the growing institutional investment. In case you were wondering, Ethereum has this too! Grayscale offers investment in the cryptocurrency space for financial institutions and their Ethereum fund has already locked up more than 2% of the total supply of ETH. Not only this, but as businesses transact on Ethereum and better understand it, not only will they buy up ETH to pay for their transactions, but they will also realise that much like Bitcoin, Ethereum is a scarce asset. Better yet, a scarce asset which offers yield. As a result, I expect to see companies having ETH holdings become the norm just like how Bitcoin is becoming more widespread on companies’ balance sheets.

The state of global markets

With asset prices in almost every asset class at or near all-time highs and interest rates lower than ever and even negative in some cases, there really aren’t many good opportunities in the traditional financial system right now. Enter crypto - clearly the next evolution of financial services (as I explained in the section on DeFi earlier in this post), with scarce assets built in at the protocol layer, buying BTC or ETH is a lot like buying shares in TCP/IP in 1990 (that is if the underlying protocols of the internet could be invested in which they couldn’t). Best of all, major cryptos are down from their all-time highs anywhere between 35% for BTC or 70% for ETH and much more for many altcoins. This means that they can significantly appreciate in value before entering uncharted, speculative bubble territory.
While of course we could fall dramatically at any moment in the current macro financial conditions, as a longer term play, crypto is very alluring. The existing financial system has shown that it is in dire need of replacing and the potential replacement has started rearing its head in the form of crypto and DeFi.

Improvements in user onboarding and abstracting away complexity

Ethereum has started making huge leaps forward in terms of usability for the end user. We now have ENS names and unstoppable domains which allow you to send ETH to yournamehere.ETH or TrickyTroll.crypto (I don’t actually have that domain, that’s just an example). No longer do you have to check every character of your ugly hexadecimal 0x43AB96D… ETH address to ensure you’re sending your ETH to the right person. We also have smart contract wallets like Argent wallet or the Gnosis safe. These allow for users to access their wallets and interact with DeFi self-custodially from an app on their phone without having to record a private key or recovery phrase. Instead, they offer social recovery and their UI is straight forward enough for anyone who uses a smart phone to understand. Finally, for the more experienced users, DApps like Uniswap have pretty, super easy to use graphical user interfaces and can be used by anyone who knows how to run and use a browser extension like Metamask.

The lack of an obvious #1 ETH killer

One of Ethereum’s biggest threats is for it to be overthrown by a so-called “Ethereum killer” blockchain which claims to do everything Ethereum can do and sometimes more. While there are competitors which are each formidable to a certain extent such as Polkadot, Cardano and EOS, each have their own weaknesses. For example, Polkadot and Cardano are not fully operational yet and EOS is much more centralised than Ethereum. As a result, none of these competitors have any significant network effects just yet relative to the behemoth which is Ethereum. This doesn’t mean that these projects aren’t a threat. In fact, I am sure that projects like Polkadot (which is more focused on complimenting Ethereum than killing it) will take a slice out of Ethereum’s pie. However, I am still very confident that Ethereum will remain on top due to the lack of a clear number 2 smart contract platform. Since none of these ETH killers stands out as the second place smart contract platform, it makes it much harder for one project to create a network effect which even begins to threaten Ethereum’s dominance. This leads me onto my next reason - network effects.

Network effects

This is another topic which I made a previous post on. The network effect is why Bitcoin is still the number one cryptocurrency and by such a long way. Bitcoin is not the most technologically advanced cryptocurrency. However, it has the most widespread name recognition and the most adoption in most metrics (ETH beats in in some metrics these days). The network effect is also why most people use Zoom and Facebook messengeWhatsApp despite the existence of free, private, end to end encrypted alternatives which have all the same features (https://meet.jit.si/ for zoom alternative and Signal for the private messenger app. I highly recommend both. Let’s get their network effects going!). It is the same for Bitcoin. People don’t want to have to learn about or set up a wallet for alternative options. People like what is familiar and what other people use. Nobody wants to be “that guy” who makes you download yet another app and account you have to remember the password/private key for. In the same way, Enterprises don’t want to have to create a bridge between their existing systems and a dozen different blockchains. Developers don’t want to have to create DeFi money legos from scratch on a new chain if they can just plug in to existing services like Uniswap. Likewise, users don’t want to have to download another browser extension to use DApps on another chain if they already use Ethereum. I know personally I have refrained from investing in altcoins because I would have to install another app on my hardware wallet or remember another recovery phrase.
Overthrowing Ethereum’s network effect is one hell of a big task these days. Time is running out for the ETH killers.

Ethereum is the most decentralised and provably neutral smart contract platform

Ethereum is also arguably the most decentralised and provably neutral smart contract platform (except for maybe Ethereum Classic on the neutrality part). Unlike some smart contract platforms, you can’t round up everyone at the Ethereum Foundation or any select group of people and expect to be able to stop the network. Not only this, but the Ethereum foundation doesn’t have the ability to print more ETH or push through changes as they wish like some people would lead you on to believe. The community would reject detrimental EIPs and hard fork. Ever since the DAO hack, the Ethereum community has made it clear that it will not accept EIPs which attempt to roll back the chain even to recover hacked funds (see EIP-999).
Even if governments around the world wanted to censor the Ethereum blockchain, under ETH 2.0’s proof of stake, it would be incredibly costly and would require a double digit percentage of the total ETH supply, much of which would be slashed (meaning they would lose it) as punishment for running dishonest validator nodes. This means that unlike with proof of work where a 51% attacker can keep attacking the network, under proof of stake, an attacker can only perform the attack a couple of times before they lose all of their ETH. This makes attacks much less financially viable than it is on proof of work chains. Network security is much more than what I laid out above and I am far from an expert but the improved resistance to 51% attacks which PoS provides is significant.
Finally, with the US dollar looking like it will lose its reserve currency status and the existing wire transfer system being outdated, superpowers like China won’t want to use US systems and the US won’t want to use a Chinese system. Enter Ethereum, the provably neutral settlement layer where the USA and China don’t have to trust each other or each other’s banks because they can trust Ethereum. While it may sound like a long shot, it does make sense if Ethereum hits a multi-trillion dollar market cap that it is the most secure and neutral way to transfer value between these adversaries. Not to mention if much of the world’s commerce were to be settled in the same place - on Ethereum - then it would make sense for governments to settle on the same platform.

ETH distribution is decentralised

Thanks to over 5 years of proof of work - a system where miners have to sell newly minted ETH to pay for electricity costs - newly mined ETH has found its way into the hands of everyday people who buy ETH off miners selling on exchnages. As pointed out by u/AdamSC1 in his analysis of the top 10K ETH addresses (I highly recommend reading this if you haven’t already), the distribution of ETH is actually slightly more decentralised than Bitcoin with the top 10,000 ETH wallets holding 56.70% of ETH supply compared to the top 10,000 Bitcoin wallets which hold 57.44% of the Bitcoin supply. This decentralised distribution means that the introduction of staking won’t centralise ETH in the hands of a few wallets who could then control the network. This is an advantage for ETH which many proof of stake ETH killers will never have as they never used PoW to distribute funds widely throughout the community and these ETH killers often did funding rounds giving large numbers of tokens to VC investors.

The community

Finally, while I may be biased, I think that Ethereum has the friendliest community. Anecdotally, I find that the Ethereum developer community is full of forward thinking people who want to make the world a better place and build a better future, many of whom are altruistic and don’t always act in their best interests. Compare this to the much more conservative, “at least we’re safe while the world burns” attitude which many Bitcoiners have. I don’t want to generalise too much here as the Bitcoin community is great too and there are some wonderful people there. But the difference is clear if you compare the daily discussion of Bitcoin to the incredibly helpful and welcoming daily discussion of EthFinance who will happily answer your noob questions without calling you an idiot and telling you to do you own research (there are plenty more examples in any of the daily threads). Or the very helpful folks over at EthStaker who will go out of their way to help you set up an ETH 2.0 staking node on the testnets (Shoutout to u/superphiz who does a lot of work over in that sub!). Don’t believe me? Head over to those subs and see for yourself.
Please don’t hate on me if you disagree about which project has the best community, it is just my very biased personal opinion and I respect your opinion if you disagree! :)

TL;DR:

submitted by Tricky_Troll to ethfinance [link] [comments]

My year in psychosis: age 31 (a long read)

Some time around this time last year I posted in datingoverthirty a sort of recounting of my year, and how dating had gone for me. A lot of people were pretty kind about it, and some people weren't so much, but I loved writing it. This year has been totally different for everyone, and actually, the recounting of my year belongs more in this subreddit than it does in the other.
My first encounter with mental health services in the UK was when I was around 16/17 years old. I remember going to the GP with my friend because I was too scared to go alone, and crying in the doctors office. I was prescribed anti-depressants, and referred to psychiatry for evaluation. I remember that I wasn't diagnosed with anything, but that I was offered counselling for a period of time.
I took the counselling, which had always been difficult to do, because I didn't feel like I had anywhere private to talk to the counsellor. I remember talking with him, Johnathan, the counsellor, in his car, in a supermarket cafe, in my Grandma's living room while she spent time in the kitchen. I don't know if it was valuable to me at the time, but in hindsight, I don't remember anything that I had talked to him about except a boy I was in love with - RH. I told Johnathan that RH was better than me, and not many people were. Things for me and RH didn't go so well. He was very academic, and I'd failed all of my exams. He left our hometown, and I stayed there. I was always scared that it would happen, but deep down knew that it was inevitable.
After that I took an interest in philosophy, and when I had some money of my own, aged 22/23,I elected to see a private existential therapist, John. John was actually great, and I always enjoyed talking to him. Again, I'm not sure what I got out of this therapy, but it was always great to talk to John. He felt like a friend to me, never judged me and always provided stimulating conversation. I'm not great at talking, but I could talk with John. Unfortunately private therapy is expensive and after a while I couldn't keep on paying for it. So I stopped going.
During COVID, I spent my last days as a 31 year old in a mental health ward, being treated with anti-psychotics for what I've now been told was my First Episode of Psychosis, and in the tradition of last year, I thought it would be prudent to run through my year and what it meant to me. If you're interested only in the psychotic stuff, I would scroll to the end of the post - even if it's arguable that by March I was already acting, in some ways, psychotically.
December 2019
This was an awesome month. I had a great time. M2 (mentioned briefly in my previous post) was talking to me, he offered me some kind of commitment, I went abroad to Israel and had an amazing time travelling through the history of such a rich, rich culture, and then spent the longest day of my life in a Romanian airport on the way home.
I spent some time tracking the British election (geek) and accurately predicted some changes which just a few months prior were almost unthinkable to all of the reputable pollsters. I was interested in changing my job to advance my career and started to look around for new opportunities.
I had finally sold my car, this huge financial burden, and replaced it with a car which I'd paid for outright with a little help from my family. I was well on my way to achieving the things that I needed to achieve in order to feel good about my life and move back into a place on my own.
January 2020
January was an exciting time. Britain had a new Conservative majority and I'm fascinated by change. I applied for around 30 jobs to work for one of the new Conservative MPs. I got one interview, and was unfortunately told that I didn't have the political experience. I already had a job, and I loved my colleagues, but for several reasons, for me it felt like time to move on.
M2 sort of backed away from his commitment, but there was potential for us seeing each other. He lives overseas, but if he wanted a serious commitment from me it would be his. He doesn't seem ready, willing or able to make a serious commitment to me. But, my heart tells me that he's the one for me, and my heart hasn't really told me anything since RH. It's been a lot of thinking with my... Lady parts. By January I had been in love with M2 for well over a year, and it was awesome for me to imagine that maybe I'd get to see him again soon. It was awesome that we were talking at all. I always want to text/voice message with him more than he does with me, but that's okay.
I did go on a couple of sort-of dates, with a guy who reminded me a little of M2 that I met on a dating app. I always felt guilty though, because I knew that my heart was somewhere else.
February
I don't remember much of February, except that after I'd applied for a job for an American company, as I'd always been interested in living there, and I'd been fortunate enough that they had fought to hire me after I was interviewed and initially turned their job offer down.
Prior to starting the new job I had 2 weeks off and was considering a trip to Egypt. I really wanted to visit St Catherine's Monastery, a place that I hadn't known existed until I visited Israel a few months earlier. I love a last minute trip, but on this occasion I decided not to go away. If I was going to go to the Sinai region, I wanted to make a good job of it and visit Jordan and other parts of Israel and Egypt, too - and I just didn't have enough money saved up.
M2 had sort of dropped off the planet some time before I got my new job. He had a new job too, and I guess he didn't get the response he expected when he first told me about it. I'd been more excited that maybe some day my job would help me to move to the US.
I trained the lady who replaced my job in my old place, and started at the new place on the 25th February. I was super excited. Maybe one step closer to getting into the US, I thought. The receptionist looked a little like M2, too. So I started to enjoy some daily eye candy. Lovely.
The virus had started to hit at this point, and was really picking up it's pace in the news.
March / April
Was this period of time one month? Was it seven years? I had been living with my Grandparents for the past year whilst I took some time to sort out my finances. I'd finally achieved that and had started to think about moving out.
My Grandparents are both in their 90s, and they, initially, weren't worried about the virus. My new job at the American company required me to be on site to carry out my duties, so there was no option for me to work from home. In addition to this, there were at least 150 other people on the site every day.
It wasn't long into the COVID panic that I realised that I needed to get out of my Grandparent's place for their sake, and I hurriedly found an apartment not too far from my new work place. The keys were handed over to me and then a few short days later, the man who had handed me the keys was placed on furlough.
It wasn't the best time for me to move house. I borrowed a bed from my Grandparents, and I had a shoe rack for a TV stand. It was the first time I'd spent so much time alone since I'd moved in with my Grandparents, just over a year prior. I had to deal with my diet now, as I'd been eating my Grandparent's food for a year. I had to deal with the cleaning, with everything... And on top of that, I had to deal with it all in the manner of COVID - where everything was distanced and everything was delivered.
If I'm honest, I didn't think that I noticed too much of an impact from COVID. I was still going to work every day so everything felt normal. I was still seeing friends as much as the virus permitted, and I was still driving around and living my life. The only thing that really concerned me was that seeing my Grandparents felt unwise when I was exposed to so many people every day, and that I couldn't travel.
Not being able to travel bothered me a lot because I didn't know if the absolute lack of potential for us to see each other was the barrier to communication between M2 and I, or whether he just wasn't all that interested in me. He's always been kind of hot and cold, and difficult for me to read from a distance, but it had never put me off. I'm kind of a cold person to be around, and the time that I did spend with him, I knew I wanted to spend more. Immediately, the second I'd laid eyes on him, I'd felt like everything I thought I knew before about how he was the one for me was true.
I always had and have been scared that time and distance, as it did with RH, will be the thing that means M2 meets someone else. It's strange for me to type it, but it hurts me to think about. He isn't mine, we aren't together, but the idea of losing the possibility of us seeing each other again someday in a romantic capacity hurts me, so somewhere in this period of time I decided to tell him that I'm in love with him.
At 31 years old, I've never in my life told a man that I loved him before he told me that he loved me first. I'd never known it, either. But Good Lord, did I know that I loved M2. I was being patient in a way that I didn't know I could, I had faith that maybe someday we could work things out for the both of us together, and I knew that the way that I felt about him would last. It had already lasted for 15 months, even when he didn't want to talk to me.
Something else that I'd never done at 31 years old, was tell a man that I loved him by text message. But I did it. And it was like opening the floodgates. I messaged him once that I was in love with him, and then I'd said it and it felt so good to tell him. He didn't answer me right away, but he doesn't usually anyway. So I started getting braver. I'll send him shorter messages so that he can see without opening them that I love him, I want him to know.
And then I got more and more "creative" and before I knew it, I was in a spiralling mess of messaging M2 that I was in love with him over and over again. And getting no response. I asked him to marry me. I meant it, too. If he'd have said yes, we'd be engaged right now. But he didn't. And he didn't acknowledge my messages at all. So then I had to try and talk myself down from it. Which I did by messaging M2 more.
Of course, it wasn't ideal that the first man I'd ever told "I love you" who didn't tell me first didn't respond, but I'd known at the time that I told him that maybe he wouldn't respond. It's the risk you take when you send somebody an "I love you" text message. Or 100 "I love you" text messages.
May / June / July / August
Well that was all very romantic and daft, wasn't it. Never mind. Now I have a good long time to get over it.
It took me some time, if I'm honest. I'm a little bit like an armadillo, hard on the outside but squishy in the middle. It meant so much to me to tell M2 that I was in love with him, and it hadn't really gone to plan. He never owed me anything, and I would imagine that most people would be caught off guard by an "I love you" message, let alone 100 "I love you" messages in the middle of a pandemic when he'd just started a new, and I imagine stressful, job.
I didn't know what to do, but over time, the less I thought about it, the better I felt.
Summer was a bit of a wash out, but when British restaurants re-opened, I went on a date with a handsome doctor that again I'd met on a dating app. We kind of clashed but there was a little chemistry there and he seemed bizarrely keen. I wasn't ready for anything serious though, and even if I had been I didn't think it would be with him, but we kept things friendly regardless.
Work was going really well. I was getting on great with my colleagues, and starting to feel comfortable. I had created from scratch a daily reporting suite with some level of automation, streamlining a process which had become very time consuming for a large number of people - and what's more, it worked! I don't have any qualifications or any real structure for these kinds of projects, but I'd managed, and it worked, and I was delighted. I was constantly looking for my next process improvement project, and working well with my colleagues.
Slowly but surely, I was getting over M2. I remember sitting with a friend and saying that I'd never message him first again. It'd taken me a very long time, and one hell of a journey to get to that point, but I'd meant it. If he had nothing to say to me, then I certainly had nothing more to say to him.
And then just a few short days after I'd said that to a friend, M2 text me.
September
In September I took my first time off work for the whole year. I took a week, and COVID had meant that I couldn't travel abroad, but I could drive around Britain and take in some of the wonderful history and culture that we have here. I visited castles, a forest and an abbey, and one day as I was driving to see the former site of the house where Fred and Rose West lived, I got a text message from M2. It flashed up on my screen with my Mum in the car and I panicked. I hadn't told her anything, really, about my interest in him except that I had gone to Eastern Europe to meet him. As it flashed up, I said "that's that guy." She didn't say much in response.
We texted back and forth a little for a couple of days and then he stopped replying to me again.
It shouldn't be such a big deal to me, he's just a guy. He hadn't mentioned anything about my proposal to get married, and he hadn't responded to whether or not he would marry me. I figured, okay, no response is at least not a "no". He'd told me a long time in the past that it was difficult for him to think straight because his mind moves in a million different directions at once. I'd put a lot of pressure on him by being so open about my feelings and motivations with him, so in some respects I was just glad that he was talking to me again.
But it put me back on the slippery messaging slope. Every time he messages me and then drops off the planet I have to go through this same process of grieving the loss of him. It's really hard on me, when - rightly or wrongly - he means a lot to me. But the fact of the matter is that he probably just finds me a little too intense. "A little too intense" is also probably a huge understatement.
I'm not going to mention M2 again for a while now, but it's safe for you to assume that as the months progress and time goes on, I am still messaging M2. Even though he isn't answering me. I felt like I couldn't let him go again, and for whatever reason, incessantly texting him, just about my day or anything seemed like the best way to achieve this not letting him go. It was the only thing I could do.
Also in September, I got a job offer out of the blue from a girl who'd been in the year below me at school. I didn't really know this girl at school, but I do remember seeing her in a local bar one time and me smiling at her, and her rolling her eyes at me in response. I try really, really hard to be nice to people and that had bothered me and got me thinking about why she'd do that, when I remembered that when I was around 15 years old I had, for no good reason, approached her at school and with a smile in my voice and in front of her friends told her that I thought she looked like a Disney cartoon character; a male Disney cartoon character.
And ever since I'd remembered that I'd wondered if she had thought of me as a bit of a bully (which I never in my life before had ever considered anyone would think of me as). When she approached me with the job offer I was surprised (obviously, I thought she disliked me) and also really impressed by her career and career trajectory. We spoke on the phone and she was hugely ambitious, and clearly visionary in her approach about what she wanted to achieve in the new job that she was taking at a growing British brand, and the team that she was building to work with her.
She had a guy she knew from another business she wanted to hire, and then in addition to that she wanted to hire me, and offered me a 33% pay rise from what I was earning in the job I'd started in February - during which I'd already had a 33% pay rise from the job I was doing before. It was at an established company and it was clear that a lot of work needed doing, but I loved that. I couldn't put my finger on what though, but something about this job offer was stressing me out.
I talked to my Grandparents about it, and they thought it sounded great. Of course it sounds great. They told me that what had happened at school was ancient history and that clearly the girl who was interested in hiring me thought it was ancient history. Eventually, I decided to take the job offer. I handed in my notice at work, and told the girl I knew that I would be delighted to start soon. But something still just didn't feel right. I couldn't do it. Something about it made me feel like I was being set up for failure; which made no real sense, because S (the girl who approached me) was being so supportive. She had talked with me in depth, and offered me every reassurance imaginable.
But for whatever reason, the feeling of being set up just couldn't be shaken off. So I retracted my acceptance of the job offer, and then panicked for days while I waited to find out whether my job would let me retract my notice. I didn't want to shake the ground that I felt had got me through a pandemic; and there was still the overriding fact that when I joined the company I joined, it was a huge draw for me that while I worked for them, maybe there was a chance that someday they would be able to hire me as an employee in the US, where I wanted to live and had wanted to live ever since I was 12 years old. Just my aiming-low-ass had always seen it as something realistically unachievable for me, with me not being academically gifted.
After a few days feeling like I was on very shaky ground, I was delighted when HR told me that my notice was retractable and that I would be fine to continue on with my job. I should expect that in the near future my manager would spend some time with me just to make sure that I was committed to my position and the company but that otherwise I was good to continue on as I had been before. Relief!
October / November
Now. October was a month. The things that I remember happening are that I had a flu vaccine, on Columbus Day. I was still sending M2 inordinate amounts of text messages that I was in love with him, and hearing nothing back.
At one point I left work very early in the morning. I had gone out to smoke (which I was doing excessively) and sat in my car, but after a reasonable 10 minute break instead of going back into the office and continuing with my day, I drove home, and left my handbag in the office.
When I went back to work I was asked something along the lines of "wtf" by HR, but I don't remember the details.
In hindsight, by October, I was very much in the depths of my first psychotic episode. I don't know what else happened in October, but I know that I was reading a hell of a lot about the US election. I was hitting all of my deadlines, but I couldn't sit still. I constantly wanted to be up and moving around.
If I'm talking about my year aged 31 then it ends in the middle of November, and it ends with me as an in-patient in a psychiatric assessment ward, after a mental health crisis team was called by my neighbour; who's flat I don't remember how I got into. I don't think I would have knocked on her door, so she must have seen me wandering around the building. Luckily, she has some qualifications in counselling and therapy, and knew who to call to have me assessed. She recognised at that time that she thought that I was having a nervous breakdown, and for that I am truly thankful.
I don't know when my psychotic episode started, and I also can't give you a timeline on when things happened, but what I can do, is give you a list of some of the things that I either did or thought prior to my hospitalisation on 10th of November:
When I'm writing here that I believed things, I believed them. To me, they were true. And I had theories upon theories to back up why what was happening was happening. Every time I had a new idea I weaved it in amongst the other idea's I had; sometimes my Grandparents were the Queen and Prince Philip. Sometimes my Mum was Boris Johnson, and other times she was Princess Diana. Sometimes I was an MI5 agent, other times I was just a person that had stumbled across a tremendous, terrifyingly fascinating plot by those with the largest amounts of power in the world.
Hunter Biden was also a source of endless fascination for me.
But, in the tradition of last years post, I will write only about my year aged 31 on this post. My birthday was in the middle of November, and I spent it alone, in a psychiatric assessment unit. Also this is a very long post, and if anybody got this far... Well done and thanks for reading.
Wonder where my year age 32 will need to be posted?
Also - I am usually a very, very private person. I don't talk to people about what I consider "sordid details" of my life very often. I have 4 or 5 close friends with whom I'd share these things, and that would be that. I've tried to be very vague here about any identifying details, and I guess just because of residual paranoia would like to say that if you enjoyed reading this then please respect my privacy :) :) :)
submitted by DOTdiary to mentalhealth [link] [comments]

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