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2019 r/basbeall Power Rankings -- Week 15: The A's Attack Continues and Washington Celebrates July 4th by Winning, the Rockies Crumble and the Brewers Slide, a Midseason Shake-Up of the Ranks -- We're Halfway There, Who is Living on a Prayer?
Hey Sportsfans--it's time for Week 15 of baseball's Power Rankings--The world is very different now. For man holds in his mortal hands, the power to abolish all forms of bias and all forms of fairness. And yet, the same revolutionary beliefs for which our forerankers fought are still at issue around the internet: the belief that the ranks of teams come not from the generosity of the voters but from the hand of God. Every voter has their own style / system and the only voting instructions are these:
"To an extent determined individually, you must take into account how strong a team is right now and likely to be going forward. You must, to some degree, give weight to the events and games of the previous week."
There were two ties!
The 7th/8th place tie and the 18th/19th tie were both broken by our second tie-breaker: run differential. TRANSPARENCY: this link will show you who voted each team where and has added neat statistics! If something is a little messed up, feel free to pester me let me know. Total Votes: 27 of 30. So close.
#
Team
Δ
Comment
Record
1
Dodgers
0
I feel like this team is in a very, very good place when a .500 week makes me feellike we had a really tough one. The Dodgers feel like they lose in bunches, then go back to winning, which can make being a fan a relatively volatile experience (that and the whole "Can't win a World Series" thing). I am ready for the break, get ready to see Joc Pederson smack some Joc Pops/Joc Jams all across Ohio, and hopefully the boys get some good rest going into the second hald
60-32
2
Yankees
0
Yankees in the ASG: Gary Sanchez, DJ LeMahieu, Gleyber Torres, Aroldis Chapman. Yankees at the halfway point: 4th wRC+, 6th in pitching fWAR, 2nd in rDiff. I do wish that one of those last two games against the Rays had bounced in our favor, and while Boone's bullpen usage continues to baffle me, I'm overall very pleased with the team.
57-31
3
Astros
+1
7-3 in our last 10, reaching the All-Star Break at 57-33 with a 7.5 game lead on the Athletics. Yuli Gurriel has been phenomenal with the bat, and I'm not sure if he knows how to do anything other than style his hair like a pineapple and hit home runs. Wishing Alex Bregman the best in the Home Run Derby and let's get an AL win on Tuesday night!
57-33
4
Twins
-1
The Twins enter the All-Star break with a 5.5 game lead over the Indians. The team desperately needs a rest, with the last couple weeks being a perfect storm of several key players gettiing injured, multiple marathon extra-inning games, and Cleveland going on a hot streak to close the gap. That being said, it's been a stellar first half for the Twins, breaking multiple team and MLB records. My favorite stat though is the one that shows just how resiliant we've been: The Twins' longest losing streak is still only two games, and are currently 24-8 the day after a loss.
56-33
5
Rays
0
The Rays had a winning record on the week, but it might be hard to tell with the 3 brutal extra-inning losses in a row. The good take is that it's good experience for a young team; even after coming back only to fail (in eerily similar fashions) two nights in a row against the Yanks, they were able to close out the series with a split in 2 more extremely close games. With the All-Star Break nigh, flappy fans ask: Team, I hope you're gonna buy. Also CFM leads AL ERA :)
52-39
6
Braves
0
A couple of questions after an excellent first half for the Braves. 1. Who is the real second contender in the division? Phillies have plenty of starpower but the Nationals have surged ahead. 2. Important decisions will have to be made about this roster very soon. Inciarte is coming back from his injury and there's no obvious odd-man out in the outfield. This doesn't even include Adam Duvall, who has 26 homers in AAA. Will a trade rectify it, or something else? Regardless, it's a good problem to have.
54-37
7
Atléticos
+2
We gave the Twins their first series loss of the year at the start of the week and took 2 of 3 from the Mariners in Seattle. Olson has 19 HR's in 58 games. The Matt's both ended the first half at 137 OPS+. Chapman and Hendricks are our ASG reps, and Chapman was named to the HR Derby. Anderson and Fiers deserved spots in the ASG too, but alas. The trade deadline looms.
50-41
8
Red Sox
0
While not playing against the best competition, taking 5 of the last 6 is a great way to head into the all star break. The wildcard race is shaping up to be an absolute bloodbath, and with the division all but out of reach the Sox really needed this hot stretch. The offense is playing up to snuff, but we're not going to make ground without the pitching picking up some slack. I'll miss baseball, but at least the break will give me time to construct my shrine to Devers.
49-41
9
Indians
+3
The surging Tribe swept the Royals and Reds for a perfect 5-0 week. Starting pitching, bullpen, batting, defense - all excellent. They've also halved the Twins' AL Central lead from 11 on June 14 to 5.5 headed into the break, and have the fewest losses among non-division leaders. Watch out, Twinkies, here we come!
50-38
10
Cubs
-3
It was another strange week for this strange team and division. The Cubs reach the break in first place, but they're only up half a game on the Brewers and 4.5 games on the last place Reds. This first half was underwhelming, but I think any Cubs fan would have happily accepted first place at the All Star Break when this season began. Hopefully Hamels makes a quick recovery and the rest of the team can step up until he's back.
47-43
11
Nacionales
+5
Most people rejected yousmelllikebiscuits message. They hated yousmelllikebiscuits because he told them the truth. The Nationals have been the best team in MLB since May 24 whey they were 12 games under 500. They currently hold an NL Wild Card spot and will try to reel in the Braves like Cole Trickle chasing down Russ Wheeler.
47-42
12
Rangers
-1
48-42
13
D-Backs
+2
The D-backs lost two heartbreakers against the Dodgeres before sweeping the Rockies at home. The bullpen is too bad to consider us serious contenders, but sitting a game above .500 at the All-Star break is a much better position than many envisioned for the Snakes coming into this year.
46-45
14
Brewers
-4
oh no we suck again Currently Milwaukee has the second worst record in the NL over the last 20 games (7-13). The starting pitching has continued to perform poorly, the bats are rather inconsistent, but at least Jesus Aguilar is on a bit of a hot stretch this month (.500/.538/1.333)
47-44
15
Phillies
-1
The team finished the first half with a series win vs the Mets. The key to this team has and will be the pitching, and they might have faced another blow to the rotation with Arrieta having bone spurs in his elbow with no clear cut depth to fill his spot. Both the SP and RP are in flux with injuries and lack of depth and must find stability to contend in a competitive NL Wild Card race in the 2nd half.
47-43
16
Cardenales
+1
Pretty, prettttty, prettttttty close to burning it down. Tweaks aren't going to help this team, throwing everything into the air might.
44-44
17
Padres
+1
It's disappointing to not have any representation in the home run derby, when 2 of our guys are in the top 10 in homers for all the MLB to this point. We got swept by the Giants this week, but beat LA 3/4 up there, putting us at .500 at the break for the first time since 2010
45-45
18
Reds
+2
I turned 21 this weekend, so admittedly I didn't watch a whole bunch of baseball. But it seems the entire offense has decided to disappear at the same time except for Yasiel Puig. After a fun series win against Milwaukee, the Reds were absolutely annihilated by Cleveland. Luckily, the rest of the NL Central is as confusing as we are, so they can really make it interesting if they get hot after the break.
41-46
19
Angels
0
Yadier Molina's Instagram is basically me every time I watch Cam Bedrosian pitch.
45-46
20
Rockies
-7
44-45
21
Pirates
+1
What is it about the Pirates and the week before the All-Star break? Once again, the Bucs are red-hot coming into the Midsummer Classic, winning 5 of 7 this week against the top teams in the NL Central. Suddenly, a team that seemed DOA in early June is only 2.5 games out of first, the closest the Bucs have been to the top at the All-Star break since 2015. In years past, the Pirates have seemed to lose their momentum in the off week, but they'll need to keep things going this weekend against the Cubs to stay in the 5-team race.
44-45
22
Mets
-1
First half over. We've got three quite deserving All-Stars, and about as many wins. The Díaz/Canó deal sure looks like a disappointment at the midway mark, as do the signings of Familia and Lowrie (the latter of whom will play one game for the Mets, a David Wright-style comeback in 2020). Our midseason LVP award goes to the entire bullpen. Our midseason MVP, on the other hand, probably goes to Jeff McNeil, who has proven himself to be an absolute beast of a pure hitter. Love you, Squirrel.
40-50
23
White Sox
0
Everyone keeps talking about Giolito, but Yoan Moncada is currently the 16th best player in baseball by fWAR with a ro-bust 3.2. Also, I could watch Eloy beat the Cubs for the rest of my life.
42-44
24
Gigantes
+1
The Giants amazingly surged to a 5-1 week going into the break, outscoring their opponents 43-23 in the process. A sweep of the Padres marked the team's first 3-game sweep of anybody in over a year. Will Smith is a perfect 23-for-23 in save opportunities, and should net a nice return at the trade deadline. Madison Bumgarner almost got his elbow exploded by a line drive and is hopefully healthy by the trade deadline. Heliot Ramos and Joey Bart are both in the Futures Game. At the very least, Giants baseball has somehow been interesting over the last coule weeks.
41-48
25
Mariners
-1
Danny V was snubbed for the Home Run Derby. That is All.
39-55
26
Blue Jays
+1
Since May 24th, only Mike Trout and Pete Alonso have hit the ball better than Lourdes "Pina Power" Gurriel Jr. Cavan Biggio has a better O-Swing% than anyone in baseball, including Joey Votto. Danny Jansen had an OPS of .982 over the past 30 days. With Vladito in the HR Derby, Nate Pearson throwing 102mph in the Futures Game, and Bo Bichette on the horizon, Blue Jays fans have plenty to look forward to.
34-57
27
Marlins
-1
Seeing the fish be this useless against the nats and barves sucks a mean one. On the positive side, sandy will pitch in the all star game and caleb smith looks back to normal after his first start back. Im just counting the days until Isan Diaz gets called up.
33-55
28
Royals
0
THis would be a great time for the Royals to overhaul their roster, cutting veteran players that will not be part of the future while bringing up the likes of Bubba Starling, Richard Lovelady, Jake Kalish, and Gabe Speier. Instead, Lucas Duda, Wily Peralta, and Kevin McCarthy will continue to wang chung.
30-61
29
Tigres
0
Jack Morris is making dumb comments about Miggy, Al Avila got an extension, and the team is crawling to the All Star break, having won a total of six games since the start of June. Scratch that, they are in a wheelchair headed into the All Star break. Oof. After the break, the Tigers open with a three game set at Kansas City. It'll be a barn burner.
28-57
30
Orioles
0
I am in Vegas this week so the only thing I will say is I made a huge bet on the Orioles as World Series champs in 2023. Woooooooo.
Sorry for the late one boys, life ya know ANYWAYS I think it was a good day, most of the top favorites won (or were postponed). Hopefully your streak is still going! I put my money on the tribe today and I was rewarded. Good news about this post, there are a lot of safe picks IMO, many aces are starting... So if you need 1-2 more wins for some rewards you should feel good about today. Also, I am going to bold the games I want you guys to pay close attention to, I'm not sure why 538 has certain percentages they do on games... But I think there are stronger favorites tomorrow than the top one they picked. Lets get down to it! 1.) Baltimore (31-67) @ Arizona (50-50) 538 has this game as a 68% chance for the Diamondbacks, and honestly dudes I can't tell you why. Kelly (7-9 with a 3.77) is facing off against Bundy (4-11 with a 5.28). I don't get it... If I were you I would keep reading down, but according to 538 this battle between these two inconsistent pitchers is the top favorite. Vegas is at -170 on them. 2.) Kansas City (37-64) @ Atlanta (60-41) In my opinion I think this is a better pick than the previous. We have Keuchel (3-3 with a 3.58) against Duffy (4-5 4.52). Favorite at home, with a talented pitcher on the mound... Sounds good to me. I have seen the Braves be inconsistent at times, so tread lightly here. Vegas has them at -210 and 538 is at 66% on them. 3.) Phillies (52-48) @ Tigers (30-65) ACE ALERT. We have Nola on the mound for the phillies, who is typically pretty good. He is throwing a 3.77 ERA right now, but the tigers pitcher (Boyd at 4.13) is worse. I like the phillies here, but Boyd can be good at times. This one could come down to whomever has the better game on the mound, which somewhat scares me. 538 is philly at 62% and vegas is at -140 4.) Angels (52-49) @ Dodgers (67-35) I don't like rivalry games... People may say "thEy AreNt RiValS"... But they kind of are. Maeda (7-6 with a 3.71) faces off against Pena (7-3 with a 4.92). This game could be a crap shoot. It is at Dodgers stadium so there is some silver lining, but I get burned by the Dodgers so I'm staying away. 538 is at 62% on the Dodgers and the Vegas line is -150 5.) Rockies (47-52) @ Washington (52-46) I will be going here with my pick tomorrow. Strausburg is on the mound for the Nats tomorrow (12-4 and a 3.52) and he is facing off against Lambert (2-1 6+ ERA). The first game was postponed and there is a chance this one is also (free win). Washington has been pretty good since the break, so I'll probably be here unless something better comes along. 538 is at 61% and Vegas is at -150 6.) TRIBE (58-41) @ Blue Jays (38-64) Change my mind. I'm sticking strong with my tribe. One of you is a tribe fan and told me that he always picks when there's BBC on the mound (Bieber-Bauer-Cleaver). Well dudes, Bauer is on the mound facing off against Sanchez (3-14 with a 6.26). 6.26 ERA over 100+ innings, sign me up here. This looks like a good option on paper. 538 has the tribe at 61% and Vegas is at -170. 7.) Reds (45-53) @ Brewers (53-49) ACE ALERT. Davies is on the mound for the Brewers and is throwing a 2.79 while having a record of 8-2. He will be at home facing off against Roark (5-6 3.97 ERA). The Brewers are ok at home, and they do have an ace on the mound... But these Reds are a more talented team than what their record shows IMO. I think the Brewers are safe but I'm staying away. 538 is at 58% brewers and Vegas is at -135 8.) A's (57-44) @ Astros (65-37) The A's got WORKED today. Bailey look terrible, and the Astros has two consecutive bat around innings. OOF. Astros have Miley on the mound (8-4 with a 3.25) and the A's have Fiers (9-3 with a 3.64). A's have been hot lately, and I don't want to pick against them after losing that bad... But they are away in Houston. I'd stay away. 538 is at 55% and Vegas is at -150 9.) Boston (55-46) @ Toronto (57-46) I don't feel like typing much on this one. The inconsistent Sale is on the mound and Chirinos is on for the Rays. I recommend not going here, and my wounds from Boston are still fresh. Boston has Vegas at -160 and 538 54% 10.) Marlins (36-62) @ White Sox (45-52) The match-up here is pretty even... Smith and Covey, two guys you don't know of unless you are a fan of either team face off in this epic showdown of mediocrity. That was kind of rude, but if you read all of these and have made it this far I feel the need to keep you entertained... So pick elsewhere. White Sox are at 53% and Vegas is at -130 in favor of Miami. 11.) Yankees (64-35) @ Twins (61-38) Two good teams with the slighty better one playing away. We have German vs Gibson on the mound, and this one is going to be close unless one of them completely just gets up there and throws gas. I don't like gas throwers. 538 has the Yanks at 53% and Vegas is -115 for them as well 12.) Rangers (50-49) @ Seattle (40-62) Good ole'faithful aka undecided is on the mound for the home squad, and he'll be facing off against Payano who has 1 inning pitched under his belt this season. Do I need to type any more here? 538 has Seattle at 53% and Vegas says "nah im good" 13.) Padres (47-52) @ Mets (45-54) This one could be interesting, Paddack faces off against Vargas. Paddack has shown signs of promise, but for the same reason I don't take Soraka from the Braves, I won't suggest taking Paddack either. He's young. Consistency is what separates these guys and we don't know if he is going to show up tomorrow. Vargas is terrible though, but the Mets are at home. Should be close. 538 has the Mets at 52% and Vegas is at -130 for San Diego 14.) Cards (52-47) @ Pirates (46-53) Stay away from here. Two talented and super inconsistent pitchers on the mound for both teams (Hudson and Archer). You have better odds elsewhere. 538 is at 51% for the Pirates and Vegas is at -130 15.) Cubs (54-46) @ Giants (51-50) FAIR DISCLAIMER: I will be in attendance, which means the Giants are 100% going to lose. I have been to 5 Giants games and they have lost all 5 of them. Darvish vs Mad Bum, it will be fun to watch... But not if your streak depends on it. Cubs area 51% favorite with Vegas putting the Giants at -110. Special shout out to u/Drunner17 for giving me some inside stats, dude has been a major help. There you have it boys, I hope you keep that streak up. As always, Let me know where you are at and any inside info you have tomorrow! <3
Friends, Tonight as I sat on my couch, rage mounting as I watched the most over rated and over paid baseball player in the MLB hit a walk off against the best team in baseball... I had an epiphany. In between my drunken cuss words and insults hurled at the crimson chin for ruining my streak, I realized I have this sub. Nay I realized WE have this sub. I often lie awake at night, tears running down my face, wondering what my gold sig trout would look like. Why do I subject myself to this? God knows, and therefore so do I. For I am the alpha, and the omega. These are my feelings the night before my picks. I read all of your comments “iM pIcKiNg ThE rAnGERz CaUsE oF LanCE LyNn”. I laughed at all of you and I picked the Astros. I saw all of you claiming the Jays might beat the Sox. HA You morons and your streaks, I am above that. But now, I want to know what it’s like. I want to wake up to the sight of COLLECT REWARDS. For I have no windows in my mother’s basement, and it is a good substitute for sunshine. So I say to you, tired, hungry, frustrated, and proud. Come join me. Let us walk the path of the streak together. Let us get our golds to diamonds. In the words of the great Will Ferrell, “WERE GOING STREAKING” I will be posting the Vegas odds every night, and giving my opinion on the matchups. I would appreciate help from those of you who have had the 15 streak, and when you post if you could post the longest streak you have that would be great. Let’s do this. Feel free to comment about each game, I’ll be posting comments in here pertaining to each game 1.) Giants (45-49) @ Rockies (46-48) I’m staying away from this one. The giants are so hot right now, but everything that goes up must come down. Colorado is a -170 money line. 2.) Mets (42-51) @ Twins (58-34) Twins are a good pick here. Perez is 8-3 and is pitching at home. Twins are at -160 on the money line 3.) Pirates (45-49) @ Cardinals (47-46) Not sure about this one either, it’s a -170 towards St Louis but Archer is talented, if he has a good game I doubt they lose. StL’ pitcher has thrown 30 innings as of now. I’m out 4.) Braves (58-37) @ Brewers (48-47) Its Keuchel vs Anderson. Two talented pitchers in my opinion. Unless there is a clear favorite for a team, I don't pick matchups between two decent pitchers. You'll find better odds elsewhere IMO. Even odds 5.) Reds (43-48) @ Cubs (50-44) Gray vs Darvish. Like I said above, I tend to stay away from pitching duels. These guys are definitely under-performing this season, but I'm not putting my streak on it. Cubs are at -130 6.)Mariners (39-58) @ A's (53-41) I like this one. Oakland is pitching with Bailey, and they are hot right now. Seattle has yet to announce their starter AND they are on a 5 game losing streak (if they lose tonight). I'm probably placing my streak on Oakland tonight. 7.) Rays (56-41) @ Yankees (60-33) Both of these teams are good. German is going tomorrow for NY and Chirinos is going for Tampa. Both pitchers have great stats and bats behind them. There are better odds out there. New York @ -150 8.) Dodgers (63-34) @ Phillies (49-46) I'm done with the dodgers. Go ahead and place your streak on them if you want. The best team in baseball takes Madea to face off against someone (who cares its the Phillies). Dodgers are -150 9.) Nationals (50-43) @ Baltimore (28-66) Baltimore sucks. But the Nats do sometimes as well. The pitchers aren't great (Fedde vs Brooks). They are pretty close in terms of stats, but if you feel Washington is going to pull this one off go for it. Based on record alone this seems like a better option than some others out there. Washington comes in as a high favorite -185 10.) Tigers (29-61) @ Indians (53-40) Doesn't look like they have posted the pitchers yet, Tigers are a bad team. Indians just threw a combined 1 hitter against them and I don't see them beating the Indians. The Tigers are the biggest underdogs (according to Vegas) of any other team today with the Indians at -260. 11.) Blue Jays (36-60) @ Boston (51-44) I mean they can't lost twice right? There is no way the Jays beat Boston in Boston two games in a row. But they did do it once. Sanchez vs Rodriguez (who is 10-4) face off. Boston comes in at -250 12.)Padres (45-49) @ Miami (35-57) The padres are ok, they are in Miami. Paddack goes against Richards, two similarly talented pitchers IMO and Sd has the better bats. There are probably better options out there. San Diego at -155 13.) Arizona (48-47) @ Rangers (50-45) This is a close one. I think Texas is the better team but Ray is the better starting pitcher. Could go either way or down to a single play. Again, Im staying away from here. Arizona -120 14.) White Sox (42-49) @ Royals (34-62) Nova is going against Duffy in this one. Statistically speaking Nova is having a better season, but is also because he has pitched more. Chicago looks to be the favorite. Not a big enough one however for me to pick them. KC is actually the favorite here from Vegas at -120 15.) Astros (59-36) @ Angels (49-46) Angels don't have Trout. The best player in baseball is out. Cole is also pitching for the Astros, and has been very good recently. I like the Astros in this one despite them playing away. Not to mention it looks like the Angels still haven't declared who is pitching tomorrow. I'm between these guys and Oakland.
bathrobeDFS - Daily Analysis for April 9, 2019 (MLB)
Hello, everyone!! bathrobeDFS is here with your Daily MLB Analysis. First, I will go over any weather concerns. Then, we will take a look at the Vegas lines. Next, I will take a look at Pitchers. Then I will look at the Hitters. All of this will be discussed as someone who plays on DraftKings. If you have any additional questions or want to see guaranteed updates in regards to breaking news- I provide additional updates, information, and stats on my twitter @bathrobeDFS. Feel free to throw me a follow cause it’s much easier and more timely to provide updates over that medium. I also have a Venmo and Patreon for those that would like to donate I also strongly suggest joining us on Flick. It’s a live chat app that allows me, and a wonderful group of people, to deal with news as it happens, talk about the slate, share lineups, and break things down in a way I simply can’t on any other medium. It is also invite only, so there are no trolls and only good, helpful people talking all different sports, all day, every day.. If you want to join us there, Download the Flick App and send me a message so I can get you an invite. That’s it! Free and easy! With that being said, let’s get into it! Early Slate Game Notes (SPs, Vegas Lines, Weather) Indians vs Tigers - 110pm
Jordan Zimmermann, RHP - 0-0, 13.2 IP, 0.66 ERA, 0.59 WHIP, 1 BB, 10 K
Vegas Info: 7.5, CLE -156
Weather: Clear and Warmish. Temps around 60. Winds blowing out at 15 mph. Big boost to bats
Blue Jays vs Red Sox - 205pm
Matt Shoemaker, RHP - 2-0, 14.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 0.50 WHIP, 3 BB, 15 K
Chris Sale, LHP - 0-2, 9.0 IP, 8.00 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 4 BB, 5 K
Vegas Info: 8, BOS -220
Weather: Overcast and Cool. Temps in the mid 40s. Winds blowing in at 10mph. Boost to pitchers.
Rays vs White Sox - 210pm
Charlie Morton, RHP - 1-0, 11.0 IP, 1.64 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 4 BB, 14 K
Ervin Santana, RHP, SEASON DEBUT
Vegas Info: 8.5, TB -152
Weather: Clear and Warmish. Temps around 60. Winds blowing out at 10mph. Small boost to bats
Pitchers Great Pitchers Corey Kluber (9400, RHP) at DET - Wow. What a steal for Kluber. I know his first 2 starts haven’t exactly lit the world on fire, but, honestly, do yourself a favor and look through ALL the game notes right now (if you know baseball). Take a look at all of those ace pitchers, and the numbers they are putting up. Kluber is not alone in his futility so far on the season. But it doesn’t matter. Like I noted about Verlander yesterday, all this does is lower this price and make people less likely to play him. He is going against a bad Detroit team. I would expect him to get back to the 7 IP, 7-8 K, with almost no hits, runs, or walks. At that price, given his immense talent, I don’t know how you don’t go all in on Kluber on this 3 game slate. You can even pair him with another good pitcher and still fit in some good bats. Charlie Morton (9000, RHP) at CWS - Morton is a great pitcher, and I think he’s going to fly under the radar a lot because he moved to TB. But he is still going to get a ton of strikeouts, and be able to limit runs and baserunners. While I wish he were more of a sure thing to get to 100 pitches, he is easily one of my favorite pitchers on this short slate. Great Pitcher??? Chris Sale (10700, LHP) vs TOR - Ah. I’m sure among people that pay really, really close attention to baseball there’s a debate brewing. Has Sale lost it? I have talked so many times now about the metaphorical cliff that a lot of pitchers fall off - where they are cy young starters one season and, as quickly as the next spring, are barely functional major leaguers. While this may seem like some kind of exaggeration, the worry is real after Sale posted the lowest Velocity of his career last start.. He only got 1 K and never got over 90 mph?? He only got 5 swinging strikes in 87 pitches? He has thrown 59 fastballs this season and gotten ZERO swings and misses?? That should concern anyone, as far as I’m concerned. But Should It??, The Boston Globe asked. Pitching coach Dana LeVangie said that Sale was throwing slower by design - he was basically just building himself up (which you can see he does every season). Former all-star Brad Lidge said that was bullshit, though, arguing the Sox have reason to be concerned. All in all, I don’t know about you, but I am still fine taking the chance on Sale. Odds are I won’t. And if I only play one lineup, I probably will not play him. But uncertainty lowers ownership and price and you could get Sale for far too cheap and low owned, especially on a 3 game slate. This one is going to come down to how much risk you want for the price. Batters Stacking Opportunities (in no particular order) Indians vs Jordan Zimmermann (RHP, @DET) - Just like a lot of really good pitchers have started out the year badly, a lot of really terrible pitchers have started out the year looking like Cy Young candidates. His first game was against a Blue Jays team, on Opening Day, that started out the season on a run of making bad pitchers look like aces. His 2nd start, though, against the Yankees was more impressive. But, if you look, Zim is someone that always starts the year off hot. He always gets worse, and I expect him to do so. Granted, you could easily play Zim in GPPs on a 3 game slate especially given how bad this Indians team has looked. But I think Zim is bad enough, I would rather take a chance on a stack then take a chance on him at 8100. Yuck. How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 6 Chalk Level (1-10): 7 Preferred Stack: Full or Mini Preferred Players : Start with Ramirez (3B - 5100) then go to the top and work your way down. Red Sox vs Matt Shoemaker (RHP, TOR) - I mean, again, on a 3 game slate you can take a chance on Shoemaker, who has been as hot as fire lately. He has had 2 starts. In both of them, he went 7 IP, only allowed 2 hits, and struck out 7 and 8 batters. But when you look closer, he did it against the hapless Tigers and an Orioles team who never had a hap to begin with. On a 3 game slate, you can take a chance here as a deep GPP play, but Shoemaker is going against a Red Sox that should be able to absolutely punish him. Especially considering he is an extreme reverse splits pitcher. How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 8 Chalk Level (1-10): 8 Preferred Stack: Full - RHB preferred Preferred Players: Martinez (OF - 5200), Bogaerts (SS - 4800), Betts (OF - 5300), Nunez (2B/3B - 4200), Vazquez (C - 3700), then start at the top Ervin Santana (6200, RHP) vs TB - Santana hasn’t been very good for awhile. I mean he was never a Cy Young caliber pitcher, but he was good. Now he isn’t. He only got 5 starts last year due to injury. Now he’s 35 and, unless you are taking the cream, 35 year olds don’t suddenly get better and less injury prone. I think Santana is going to be SUPER popular today given how cheap he is, and how high some projections have him. I think that’s a huge mistake. How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 10 Chalk Level (1-10): 4 Preferred Stack: Full Preferred Players: Meadows (OF - 4200), Pham (OF - 4700), Yandy Diaz (1B/3B - 3900), Lowe (2B - 4500), Kiermaier (OF - 4100), Choi (1B - 4200), then whoever else starts HR CALL OF THE SLATE: I think both JD Martinez and Bogaerts go deep. But I will choose Martinez as the most likely. Today’s Slate Game Notes (SPs, Vegas Lines, Weather) A’s vs Orioles - 705pm
Weather: Clear and Warm. Temps in the low 60s. Winds blowing out at 18mph. Wow! SF built the park to minimize the effects of wind, though, so it doesn’t matter as much as you would think.
Matt Harvey, RHP - 0-1, 10.0 IP, 9.00 ERA, 1.90 WHIP, 5 BB, 6 K
Vegas Info: 8.5, Pick Em
Weather: Windy and warm. Temps around 70. Winds blowing across the field, toward RF, at 18 mph.
Pitchers Great Pitchers Stephen Strasburg (9700, RHP) at PHI - Man, some of the prices for these ace pitchers is crazy. I mean, it’s kind of a relative thing for DK, right? They have one pitcher at 12k because he is far and away the best pitcher in baseball right now. You can’t really put anyone else that close to him, so everyone else is underpriced. Plus, people have to be able to fit in Coors Field bats, leading to some aces really far, far too low. I expect there’s going to be a lot of people paying for Strasburg at this price. And they should. Tomorrow is going to be one of those days where ownership percentages are EXTREMELY important, so I will do my best to get those to you some point in the afternoon in some way. But there are SO many good pitchers at way too cheap that that is ultimately going to have to be the tiebreaker. Aaron Nola (9400, RHP) vs WAS - Listen, I know neither are as good as deGrom. I know the Nats and Phillies offenses are no joke. But 9700 and 9400 for these two aces is going to make them exceedingly popular today, and for good reason. I would imagine, given the fact the Phillies is currently a better offense and Nola is cheaper, that the ownership will fall largely on Nola. And I don’t know how you don’t get all over him here for 9400. He is going to be in the top 5 for Cy Young again this year, and he is 200 more that Joey Lucchesi? Gimme a fucking break. Jacob deGrom (11600, RHP) vs MIN - Jake deGrom is the best pitcher in baseball right now. Anyone who argues with you about that has literally no legitimate argument and/or no idea what they are talking about. If you don’t know who Bob Gibson is, do yourself a favor and look up some video of Gibson pitching. He is a hall of famer and all time great. Like, some people put him in the Mount Rushmore of pitchers, and you can’t really argue with them. He was so good he forced MLB to lower the mound to remove some of the advantage the pitchers had by being raised. Well, last season by deGrom was arguably the best by a pitcher since Gibson::
Since MLB lowered the mound, became 1 of 3 pitchers to have 30+ starts, 210+ IP, and a 1.70 or lower ERA
11th pitcher in the last 100 years (including before they lowered the mound) to have an ERA of 1.70 or below
Ended the season with 29 starts allowing 3 runs of fewer, the longest single season streak in MLB HISTORY. He has now broken the multi season record, and sits at 31 and counting. That is the MLB record. Ever. No one had ever done that.
The only pitcher in the modern era (since 2000) with a sub 2.00 ERA, 260 or more Ks, 50 or fewer walks, and 10 or fewer HR allowed.
His highest ERA for any month was 2.36 in June.
Has allowed 0 or 1 runs in 64 of his 139 career starts. No one in ML History had ever done that before. Now he’s up to 66 in 141.
And now he gets a Twins team that won’t have a DH which means no Nelly Cruz. And a batting pitcher. Also, do you know how insane it is for the total of this game to be 6.5 and the Mets to be THAT favored. On top of that, he is trying to break Bob Gibson’s consecutive quality start record. Gibson had 26 which deGrom and no one else has done. With a QS today, deGrom gets to 27. I expect him to do that at far less ownership that he should have. Gerrit Cole (10500, RHP) vs NYY - Cole is the 2nd best pitcher going today. But he’s still not nearly as good as deGrom and 10 out of 10 times I will find the money to pay up for Jake. That being said, this is a Yankees lineup that has a ton of Ks in it and Cole could get you 14 K today. Considering his K/9 was 12 last season, that just means he has a slightly above average 8 IP. Zack Greinke (8900, RHP) vs TEX - Greinke is a great pitcher. He can have some really horrible games sometimes, as we saw on Opening Day when he got a stunning -5.2 DKP. But he is one of the smartest people in the game of baseball, and he knows how to bounce back which he did getting 10k in 6 IP, letting him get 27.9 DKP even though he gave up 3 ER. Like I always tell you, Ks are King. While I would rather pay up for deGrom and downgrade a bat or two, or go down from Greinke and upgrade some bats, I would definitely keep him in your MME pool if you play a bunch of lineups. GPP Plays John Means (4500, LHP) vs OAK - If you play Means, you should know that you really shouldn’t expect more than 4 IP at an absolute maximum. He has made 3 appearances out of the bullpen so far this year, including 3 days ago. So really, while they may let him get to 80 pitches again (like he did on the 31st), the odds are much, much more likely he gets 40 pitches which should be enough for 3 IP or so. If he’s good and efficient, like I said, 4. But, so far, in his 5.2 IP he has 9 K. That means that, even if he only pitches 3 IP, he could easily pay this price off while also allowing us to get some seriously expensive bats. Jakob Junis (7200, RHP) vs SEA - Junis isn’t going to win any awards this season, unless they start giving awards for the most fun name to say out loud. And even then, Adalberto Mondesi would probably beat him from this team (unless there’s an alliteration bonus, of course.) Anyway, I digress. Junis isn’t someone I love. But he has had 2 poor starts where he struck out enough people to get 18 DKP. Almost everyone else priced under 9k, with the exception of Means, is someone without any upside whatsoever. So, while he may not be the best play, he is certainly the best mid-to-low priced pitcher that will help you get some of those sweet, sweet bats in. Joey Lucchesi (9200, LHP) at SF - This is a different kind of GPP play. Normally when I say GPP play it’s someone who kind of sucks but has some upside - someone you can play but you could also stack against. But here, I mean someone who, due to price, will be completely unowned. I mean, you can read what I wrote when I was talking about Nola. Lucchesi is going to be one of the lowest owned pitchers on this slate, certainly one of the lowest actually good pitchers. So far in 10.1 IP this season he has only given up 7 hits with 13 K and 0 ER. He is going against a fucking awful SF Offense that he already got 27 DKP against. So if you want a great GPP pivot to someone no one will own but is actually completely fairly priced here, run with Lucchesi. I will sure as hell have some of him across my lineups. Freddy Peralta (9900, RHP) at LAA - This is both kinds of GPP plays! It’s both someone who is kind of bad but with amazing upside who could give you a negative score or 40 DKP and also someone who won’t be owned at all due to price. And sure, there are some batters on this Angels team that will give him fits, but you can’t deny his upside, and you can’t deny no one will be on him. No Thanks Brett Anderson (8000, LHP) at BAL - Brett Anderson isn’t nearly as bad as Marco Estrada, so I don’t expect to have much, if any, interest in Baltimore today. He also is hilariously overpriced for someone who doesn’t strike people out. So yeah. No thanks. Ross Stripling (9100, RHP) at STL - Stripling is a fine pitcher. He limits baserunners, generally. He keeps the ball on the ground, for the most part. But he doesn’t seem to strike that many people out when he’s starting. And, when he’s 300 less than Aaron Nola, you really have no reason to play him. No reason at all. Batters Stacking Opportunities (in no particular order) Mets vs Kyle Gibson (RHP, MIN) - I think this may be the first time I’ve gotten to use the Mets as a stack. They have played a lot of games against a lot of good pitchers so far, so it’s nice to see them have such a good record, and to get a chance against Kyle Gibson, who is not good. In his first, he couldn’t make it out of the 4th inning, surrendering 5 ER on 8 hits and 2 BB and only 2 K. Oh boy. He is also a normal splits pitcher, and the Mets have plenty of LH power. How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 9 Chalk Level (1-10): 4 Preferred Stack: Full Preferred Players: Conforto (OF - 4300), Cano (2B - 3900), Alonso (1B - 4100), Nimmo (OF - 3900), McNeil (3B/OF - 4000), Ramos (C - 3800), Rosario (SS - 4000). Dodgers vs Dakota Hudson (RHP, @STL) - As I wrote in my preview, Hudson profiles as an extreme ground ball pitcher. He had a perplexing first start, though, where his sinking stuff wasn’t working. He wound up going only 4.1 innings, giving up 3 HR and 3 ER on 7 hits. He still struck out 6, making his effort serviceable. But this is a Dodgers team that’s been hitting lights out. And Hudson probably won’t make it 5 innings, even if he pitches well. How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 8 Chalk Level (1-10): 8 Preferred Stack: Full Preferred Players: Start at the top and work your way down Astros vs Jonathan Loaisiga (RHP, NYY) - Loaisiga, apart from having a name that’s impossible for a dyslexic to get right, is someone pitching on a limited count that has trouble finding the plate. Against an Astros team that is very patient at the plate, I don’t expect this to go too well for him. The one big negative I have here is the Yankees have, far and away, the best bullpen in baseball. So even if the get to the SP, it’s not like they have dessert up next. How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 6 Chalk Level (1-10): 7 Preferred Stack: Full or Mini Preferred Players: Start with Brantley (OF - 4000) first, given the SPs splits, then start at the top and work your way down Royals vs Marco Gonzales (LHP, SEA) - If you are 70+ years old and a voter for the BBWAA, you probably have 3-0 Marco Gonzalez as your front runner for the Cy Young this season. But let’s be real here - He’s had 2 games of incredible run support where he could have easily lost and 1 game where he struck out 3 in 8.1 IP but managed to have a lot of balls find a lot of fielders. Let’s see how this extreme splits pitcher does against the lefty mashing Royals How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 7 Chalk Level (1-10): 4 Preferred Stack: Full or Mini Preferred Players: Whit (2B/OF - 4400), Mondesi (SS - 4800), Soler (OF - 3900), Schwindel (1B - 3800), Owings (2B/3B - 3800), Maldonado (C - 2900) Rockies vs Max Fried (LHP, ATL) - Oh man. I love the Mets, but this stack takes the cake. If you read my analysis from yesterday, I linked an awesome article about how different pitches are affected by Coors Field. Long story short, sliders good, curveballs and changeups bad. Well Fried is a 3 pitch pitcher, a 4 seamer he throws 60% of the time. It has a slight sink to it, but that will be muted by Coors Field as well. He then has a curveball he throws 30% of the time. It’s a massive, beautiful, sweeping curve that won’t work at Coors. His 3rd pitch is a changeup he throws the rest of the time (10% or so). Uh oh. I hope he can live off of 1 pitch. And I hope he doesn’t mind that Arenado and Story are 2 of the best hitters against LHP in the MLB. How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 10 Chalk Level (1-10): 10 Preferred Stack: Full Preferred Players: Start with Story (SS - 5100) and Arenado (3B - 5300), who are both underpriced, and then work your way from the top. Blackmon is a great way to separate yourself, and he does fine against LHP. Desmond (OF - 4300) and Reynolds (1B - 4200) also destroy LHP Braves vs German Marquez (RHP, @COL) - If you pay attention to a lot of baseball/DFS analysts, people just don’t grasp how significant splits are. Not just hitter splits, but a bunch of other splits too. For example, you can see if someone is better at home or away, or in the first half or 2nd half. We can see that Marquez is someone who can be crushed by LHB and is really bad at home. Oh boy do I have some bad news for Marquez when he looks at this lineup and where he is right now. How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 8 Chalk Level (1-10): 10 Preferred Stack: Full or Mini - LHP preferred Preferred Players: Freeman (1B - 5100), Inciarte (OF - 4300), Markakis (OF - 4000), Albies (2B - 4700) then anyone else. Everyone is way too cheap for COL Dbacks vs Mike Minor (LHP, TEX) - As I have noted several times now, Mike Minor is not a good pitcher. Sure he had an inexplicable incredible game against the Astros last time up, getting almost 30 DKP on 7 IP. But before that, on opening day, he had -0.3 DKP against the Cubs, giving up 6 ER in 4.2 IP. I would expect more of the Cubs performance against this Dbacks team that can really destroy LHB as well. How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 8 Chalk Level (1-10): 5 Preferred Stack: Full or Mini Preferred Players: Jones (OF - 4000), Marte (2B/OF - 4200), Flores (1B/2B - 4300), Walker (1B - 4200), Ahmed (SS - 4000), Murphy (C - 3400), Peralta (OF - 4300) Padres vs Derek Holland (LHP, @SF) - Derek Holland is another bad major league pitcher who has had a couple decent games to start off the year. That doesn’t mean I’m going to fall to recency bias, though. I know who Holland is. And I can also this Padres lineup and see how absolutely disgusting they are against LHP. Like, one of the best in the game. And no one is on them. Good for us! Also look at how cheap they are. Double bonus! How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 9 Chalk Level (1-10): 8 Preferred Stack: Full Preferred Players: I would prioritize people thusly - Machado (3B - 4400), Reyes (OF - 4100), Myers (OF - 4300), Renfroe (OF - 4300), Tatis (SS - 4000), Hedges (C - 3700), then anyone else Brewers vs Matt Harvey (6000, RHP) - Matt Harvey is one of the worst pitchers in baseball now and we should jump to stack against him anytime we can, especially with LHB. Period. Sometimes it is that simple. How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 10 Chalk Level (1-10): 10 Preferred Stack: Full - LHB preferred Preferred Players: Yelich (OF - 5300), Shaw (1B/3B - 4200), Moustakas (2B/3B - 4200), Grandal (C - 4200), Thames (1B/OF - 4300), then whoever else. But those are the most important plays One-Off Batters Paul DeJong (SS - 3900) - Like with Mancini yesterday, when you have a reverse splits pitcher going against a hitter with extreme reverse splits, and it lines up, you have a stew goin’ baby!!! That’s DeJong today. He is going to have a very good today. I also love Goldie (1B - 4600), but SS is a much thinner position and DeJong is so cheap for a 3 hitter. HR CALL OF THE SLATE: Michael Conforto Ahh. it’s 3am. Plenty of time to get started on an 11 game slate for the NBA where everyone is going to be resting. Sigh. Best of luck today all!!!
Hello, everyone!! bathrobeDFS is here with your Daily MLB Analysis. First, I will go over any weather concerns. Then, we will take a look at the Vegas lines. Next, I will take a look at Pitchers. Then I will look at the Hitters. All of this will be discussed as someone who plays on DraftKings. If you have any additional questions or want to see guaranteed updates in regards to breaking news- I provide additional updates, information, and stats on my twitter @bathrobeDFS. Feel free to throw me a follow cause it’s much easier and more timely to provide updates over that medium. I also have a Venmo and Patreon for those that would like to donate I also strongly suggest joining us on Flick. It’s a live chat app that allows me, and a wonderful group of people, to deal with news as it happens, talk about the slate, share lineups, and break things down in a way I simply can’t on any other medium. It is also invite only, so there are no trolls and only good, helpful people talking all different sports, all day, every day.. If you want to join us there, Download the Flick App and send me a message so I can get you an invite. That’s it! Free and easy! With that being said, let’s get into it! Early Two Game Slate Game Notes (SPs, Vegas Lines, Weather) Rays vs White Sox - 210pm
Carlos Rodon, LHP - 1-1, 11.1 IP, 1.59 ERA, 0.62 WHIP, 2 BB, 15 K
Vegas Lines: 7.5, TB -141
Weather: Partly Cloudy. Warm. Temps around 60. Winds light.
Projected Lineups (L/S refers to Handedness of the Batter // Splits - EN = Extreme Normal, N = Normal, 0 = No splits, R = Reverse, ER = Extreme Reverse, RHB = Switch Hitter better as a RHB. LHB = Switch Hitter better as a LHB. // Pitcher information is about pitching not how he hits.) Tampa Bay Rays
Name
DK Position
Price
L/S
Splits
Yandy Diaz
1B/3B
3600
R
R
Tommy Pham
OF
5100
R
0
Daniel Robertson
2B/3B
3800
R
N
Avisail Garcia
OF
4300
R
N
Mike Zunino
C
3900
R
ER
Kevin Kiermaier
OF
4200
L
EN
Guillermo Heredia
OF
3300
R
EN
WIlly Adames
SS
3300
R
R
Christian Arroyo
3B
3400
R
0
Blake Snell
SP
10900
L
0
Chicago White Sox
Name
DK Position
Price
L/S
Splits
Leury Garcia
OF
3500
S
0
Tim Anderson
SS
3700
R
N
Jose Abreu
1B
4200
R
0
Welington Castillo
C
3300
R
EN
Yoan Moncada
3B
4500
S
LHB
Eloy Jimenez
OF
4600
R
?
Yonder Alonso
1B
3700
L
N
Jose Rondon
2B/SS
3300
R
0
Adam Engel
OF
3100
R
0
Carlos Rodon
SP
6200
L
R
Analysis Well, this game gives us the clear #1 pitcher on a 2 game slate with reigning Cy Young winner Blake Snell starting for the Rays. He is someone you can play every time he takes the mound and, especially in a limited slate like this, the question of what you should do is going to be one of game theory. There is no reputable source that will tell you anything other than that Snell is, far and away, the best play here. Everyone else will know that too. And he’s not priced in a way that makes finding bats impossible, meaning he is going to be 80% owned in some places. So what do you do?? Well, you have 3 options. I often talk about this in regards to the NBA, but the same thing really does apply to SPs in MLB. You can either:
Play him with the field and hope he pitches a normal game and crushes it. This would mean finding a way to separate yourself elsewhere, either by not stacking, taking an unpopular stack (like the Pirates), or taking the lowest owned pitcher (I would assume that is Taillon) to pair with him.
Fade him and try to find value at other places. This would mean taking a chance on Taillon and Rodon and making a point of stacking the White Sox, to further distinguish yourself from the field. Especially on a 2 game slate like this, if a pitcher is overwhelming chalk and you don’t plan on playing him, it makes sense to stack against him as added leverage against the field. I mean, you’re not playing him means, generally, you think points can be had. So find them and have them.
You just put together the best lineup you can and who gives a shit about ownership projections. Because you win a tournament by having the highest score, not by being the cutest or having the lowest owned player.
I think Rodon is also a good play. When you take a look at the projected TB lineup, they lead off with a reverse platoon RHB, already putting them at a disadvantage. While I totally think you can take a mini stack (or one-offs) with Pham (especially), Robertson, and Garcia, I think Rodon will have his way with the rest of the lineup. I will add 2 things here: It is a perfectly viable strategy to play a pitcher AND batters against him when the slate gets this small. While I don’t advise it on larger slates, it is perfectly viable when the options are so thin. If you want to play Rodon AND Pham you absolutely 100% can. Second, If you play Snell and Taillon, I totally think it’s possible to expand the mini stack to a normal sized one by adding Heredia and Adames. Pirates vs Cubs - 220pm
Jon Lester, LHP - 1-0, 12.0 IP, 3.00 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 5 BB, 10 K
Vegas Info: N/A
Weather: Partly Cloudy and Warm. Temps around 60. Light winds blowing out.
Projected Lineups (L/S refers to Handedness of the Batter // Splits - EN = Extreme Normal, N = Normal, 0 = No splits, R = Reverse, ER = Extreme Reverse, RHB = Switch Hitter better as a RHB. LHB = Switch Hitter better as a LHB. // Pitcher information is about pitching not how he hits.) Pittsburgh Pirates
Name
DK Position
Price
L/S
Splits
Kevin Newman
2B/SS
3400
R
?
Starling Marte
OF
4700
R
R
Francisco Cervelli
C
3500
R
0
Josh Bell
1B
4100
S
LHB
Jung-Ho Kang
3B/SS
4300
R
ER
Melky Cabrera
OF
3500
S
0
Pablo Reyes
2B/OF
3500
R
?
Erik Gonzalez
SS
3400
R
ER
Jameson Taillon
SP
8800
R
N
Chicago Cubs
Name
DK Position
Price
L/S
Splits
Ben Zobrist
2B/OF
3500
S
0
Kris Bryant
3B/OF
5000
R
EN
Anthony Rizzo
1B
5000
L
N
Javier Baez
SS
5300
R
EN
Kyle Schwarber
OF
4900
L
N
Willson Contreras
C
4300
R
EN
Daniel Descalso
2B
3700
L
0
Jon Lester
SP
7600
L
ER
Jason Heyward
OF
3900
L
0
Analysis I have been talking up Taillon since the very first time I talked about the Pirates. This kid is a legit ace-caliber pitcher. While he hasn’t had one of his ace-caliber starts this year, he did show marked improvement between the two starts, and I expect more improvement going into this game. I also think he will be the lowest owned due to both his price and the matchup with the Cubs. Which is scary, sure. But they are not the Red Sox or Yankees, and they can be had. Especially by someone like Taillon who can get strikeouts, has great control, and can keep the ball on the ground. If you wanna go with what I assume is the most chalky stack on this small slate, I would prioritize the LHB on the Cubs so Zobrist/Descalso, Rizzo, Schwarber and, if you hate yourself, Heyward. He had his best game of the year already. Now I can ignore him for a few months while he eats up ownership and puts up a bunch of 0s or 3s. I will also add that I’ve made it a point in taking some bats against Lester. He is an OK pitcher now, sure, but he is vastly overrated by the field both for his name and cause of the team he is on. I expect he will be the 2nd most popular pitcher on the slate by far. He is also someone who shows EXTREME reverse splits, meaning we can actually give a bump to Lester since he will be seeing 9 righties, including the pitcher. Still, I will take a chance on some Pirates bats considering the prices and where I expect the field will be. I would just start at the top and try to fit in whoever you can. Ultimately this whole slate will come down to who you choose at pitcher, and that will come down, in part, to your philosophy. Today’s Slate Game Notes (SPs, Vegas Lines, Weather) Athletics vs Orioles
Marco Estrada, RHP - 0-0, 16.1 IP, 2.76 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 4 BB, 7 K
Andrew Cashner, RHP - 1-1, 10.0 IP, 5.40 ERA, 1.70 WHIP, 7 BB, 6 K
Vegas Info: 9, OAK -136
Weather: Mostly Cloudy and Warm. Temps in the 70s. Winds blowing out at 8mph.
Weather: Partly Cloudy. Temps in the mid 70s. Winds blowing out at 4mph.
Pitchers Great Pitchers Masahiro Tanaka (8700, RHP) at HOU - This price is insulting for someone with the consistency that Tanaka has. I know that the Astros are one of the most dangerous offenses in the league, but I also know that I don’t give a shit when a pitcher is as good as Tanaka (or, as we will see on the other side of the game, Verlander). As I have noted every time I have talked about Tanaka - what beats him is himself. He has the stuff, when it’s on and he can control it, to beat any team in the league, any day, and make them look like little leaguers. It really is filthy. If he stuff is working today, he will get more than 1 K per inning, not allow a walk, and keep the runs down, even if some hits get through. Justin Verlander (10400, RHP) vs NYY - Verlander is coming off a bad start in Texas, which is awesome. It lowered his price 1100 bucks, and 600 under where it started on Opening Day. That means we get cheap Verlander! Plus, people who don’t understand how baseball works will look at his log, see one bad game, and get off him, thereby lowering what should be astronomical ownership. Or they will see the Yankees and get worried. But it’s Verlander. If you play this slate out 100 times, he will get 25 DKP against the Yanks more often than he doesn’t. Don’t be foolish. Don’t overthink it. Even Cy Young pitchers have a bad start sometimes (except deGrom). And while he may have one again, odds are he won’t. So get on him at way, way too cheap a price. Hyun-Jin Ryu (9600, LHP) at STL - I like Ryu a lot. I think he’s a great pitcher, for sure. I just don’t think there’s any way in hell I am paying 9600 when Verlander is 800 more. That’s just stupid. That being said, stupid wins a LOT of tourneys. So if you do MME, make sure you are taking some lineups with Ryu instead of Verlander (or even paired with, if you like some cheap stacks). That being said, Ryu is an extreme reverse splits pitcher who will be going against a lineup almost full of RHB, which is a huge boost for him. Great Spots Eric Lauer (7500, LHP) at SF - On opening day, I strongly recommended Lauer when he was 5600. I explained how he matches up really well against this poor Giants team. As a reverse splits lefty, he really is set to avoid almost every main problem he could face, which is how he got 6 IP with 4 hits allowed, 0 runs, 1 BB, 3 Ks and 20.5 DKP. While he’s almost 2k more expensive now, he’s still a good play, and I still expect him to put up around the same 20 DKP or so in this matchup. Granted, that puts him under several other pitchers on this slate, but I will still have my shares of Lauer tonight. GPP Plays Julio Teheran (5800, RHP) at COL - If you want a real cheap GPP play, boy have a got one for you. If you like getting deep into analysis, I strongly recommend reading this article about pitch type and how they are affected by Coors Field. If you don’t want to read the whole thing, basically, the 2 pitches that see the least change in effectiveness are the slider and the 4 seam fastball. Well, he throws his 4 seamer 42% of the time and his slider 22% of the time as it is. In Coors, I am sure he will take out the Curveball, that you can’t use there, and increase his slider usage. That will be good for him, as his slider evoked a 22.9% swinging strike rate and a .143 batting average against. Coors Field effects different pitchers differently. Some pitchers can deal with it. At 5800 and no ownership, I have no problem taking a chance on Teheran. Kyle Freeland (6200, LHP) vs ATL - Oh man am I going to get shit for this. I am putting both pitchers in the Coors Field game in the GPP section. But the fact is Freeland is as an effective pitcher in Coors Field as he is outside of it. If you read the article I just posted in the Teheran section, you will see that 4 seamers and Sliders are the way to go. Well Freeland throws his 4 seamer about 40% of the time and his slider about 30% of the time. And, again, that is taking into account that he may change this rate in and out of Coors. I look at Freeland’s logs, as well. Game 1 of the season against the Marlins - priced at 9000, he gets 25.4 DKP. Game 2 against the Rays - price falls 1100 to 7900, he gets 22.3 DKP. Now his price falls again to 6200. How much you wanna bet he still gets 20 DKP? Jhoulys Chacin (8100, RHP) at LAA - Chacin profiles very much like Teheran - a pitcher that can get a lot of Ks, can get absolute murder on RHB, but has a lot of trouble against LHB. The difference between the 2 is that Chacin throws his slider 45% of the time, and it is NASTY, which makes him REALLY nasty to RHB. But extra vulnerable to LHB. Still, this lineup is mostly Rs with only a couple of really good LHB we would have to worry about. While he is pretty expensive, I also expect him go get 20 or so DKP. Also, the Coors Field effect here is named Mike Trout, who will get a HR regardless of how nasty his slider is and how many feet off the plate it breaks. No Thanks Marco Estrada (7300, RHP) at BAL - Marco Estrada is a bad pitcher that doesn’t strike people out and gives up a ton of HR. But Baltimore is awful. There is ONE bat on the O’s that I almost consider a lock, but, otherwise, I don’t want anything from him or the other O’s bats. Batters Stacking Opportunities (in no particular order) Athletics vs Andrew Cashner (OAK) - There are very few sure things in life - death, taxes, and stacking against O’s pitchers. Andrew Cashner is their ace, but is the most hittable. He may have thrown 100 but, when you don’t have great control and the ball doesn’t move, it doesn’t matter how fast you throw in the bigs. People will catch up to it and make you pay. And that has been the story of Cashner’s career. How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 9 Chalk Level (1-10): 6 Preferred Stack: Full Preferred Players: Piscotty (OF - 4700) and Davis (OF - 5200) are my favorite plays here, but you can start at the top and work your way down against Cashner Phillies vs Anibal Sanchez (WAS) - Anibal Sanchez is the 5th starter for the Nats, but he really doesn’t deserve that job. He had a 2nd wind year last season with the Braves, but it was smoke and mirrors. In his first start against this same Phillies team, he got 4 IP and gave up 4 hits, 4 ER, 4 walks and 3 Ks and it would have been worse if he hadn’t been hit by a comebacker and taken out. I will also note that he is a reverse splits pitcher, and the wind will be blowing out How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 9 Chalk Level (1-10): 6 Preferred Stack: Full Preferred Players: Start with Rhys Hoskins (1B - 4700) and then go to the top and work your way down. Nationals vs Vincent Velasquez (RHP, @PHI) - Velasquez was a pitcher with a lot of promise when he came up for the Phils. He has always managed to keep his K totals high, but he never was able to find the control you need to make it to the next level in the big leagues. Because of that, he is prone to leaving the ball out over the plate, or missing it altogether. I should also note Vince has only gotten to pitch one inning so far this year, as he has been the long man in the bullpen (since the Phillies didn’t need 5 starters until now.) So, yeah, not a ringing endorsement if I do say so myself. How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 8 Chalk Level (1-10): 4 Preferred Stack: Full Preferred Players: Eaton (OF - 4000), Soto (OF - 4800), Rendon (3B - 4200), Gomes (C - 3500), Robles (OF - 4000), then take your pick if you wanna fit someone else. Dodgers vs Miles Mikolas (RHP, @STL) - If you have been following my MLB articles since the beginning of the season, or beforehand when I did the previews, let me first say thank you!. I really do value you taking the time to read the work I put out. I hope you enjoy reading my stuff as much as I enjoy writing it for you. Second, I have been on a quest to stack each and every time I can against Mikolas. I have been harping on it since the preseason and nothing is going to change here. When you are an extreme, EXTREME control pitcher that doesn’t strike people out, and you are getting lucky, eventually that luck runs out. And, as I often say, if you are not absolutely perfect, you aren’t going to be functional. It is way, way more profitable to bet against someone being perfect then to bet on them being flawless. And we have seen that so far against a potent Milwaukee and a not-so-potent Pirates offenses. How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 10 Chalk Level (1-10): 5 Preferred Stack: Full Preferred Players: Everyone and their grandmas if they become available on DK tomorrow for some reason. I would find it hard not to lock in Bellinger (1B - 4900) and Muncy (1B/3B - 4300). Especially Muncy at that price, and while everyone else will be looking to Colorado. Royals vs King Felix (RHP, SEA) - Felix had a great first start for him, and he struck out only 4 in 5.1 IP. He wound up not walking anyone, which was nice. But he still gave up 7 hits and 3 runs (1 ER). I just don’t think Felix has it anyone. You know I’ve talked about how he has fallen off the cliff and, while it’s possible he figured out how to not be a power pitcher in the offseason, the odds are he is going to keep getting smashed most of the time. Even though this isn’t the best Royals team, they still have some great pieces we can take a chance on. Especially LHB How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 6 Chalk Level (1-10): 3 Preferred Stack: Mini Preferred Players Whit (2B/OF - 4500), Mondesi (SS - 4800), O’Hearn (1B - 3900) or Duda (1B - 4100), Soler (OF - 3900) Mariners vs Homer Bailey (RHP, @KC) - Homer Bailey won’t have a job for long. Well, I mean, I’m sure he’ll have a job, it just won’t be a pitcher for a major league baseball team. There is a reason he is priced that low. And even that is far too high for him. He is a trainwreck of a horrorshow and I wouldn’t be surprised if his first start of the year is, by far, his best one. How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 8 Chalk Level (1-10): 8 Preferred Stack: Full Preferred Players: Start with Bruce (OF - 4200) then go back to the top and work your way down Braves vs Kyle Freeland (LHP, @COL) - Given how Kyle Freeland pitches, there are very few Braves I am interested in playing. Anyone listed here is also a fantastic one-off play as well. How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 9 Chalk Level (1-10): 10 Preferred Stack: Full or Mini - Only these Players: Preferred Players: Donaldson (3B - 5000), Acuna (OF - 5500), Albies (2B - 5200), Camargo (3B/OF - 4500), Flowers (C - 4100). If those 5 don’t all play, I will not play a 5 man stack from ATL. Padres vs Madison Bumgarner (LHP, @SF) - MadBum has looked OK in his first 2 starts, but still not like the dominant Cy Young pitcher he had been a couple of years ago before injury and age. On Opening Day, he pitched well against this Padres team, going 7 IP, striking out 9, walking 1, giving up 5 hits, including 1 HR, and 2 ER. in his next start, he threw a ball away that resulted in an error, or else he would have surrendered upwards of 5 ER, which would have tanked his stats. But that’s how baseball works. If you don’t pay attention, you don’t realize that he still gave up 5 runs, including a massive HR, and 2 walks and only 4 K in 6 IP. While I can understand not wanting to stack against MadBum like I will, I certainly won’t pay almost 10k for him and I advise you not to either. How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 7 Chalk Level (1-10): 2 Preferred Stack: Full or Mini Preferred Players: Machado (3B - 4200), Renfroe (OF - 3900), Franmil Reyes (OF - 3900), Tatis (SS - 3900), Myers (OF - 4200) Brewers vs Trevor Cahill (RHP, @LAA) - Cahill is a mediocre pitcher. I mean he’s hit or miss really. It depends on the lineup. If he is going a lineup that has, say, a fuckload of LHB that can mash HRs at a ridiculous clip, he’s probably going to have a really, really bad day. Oh look, here come the Brewers who now get to use Thames at DH!! Poor, poor Trevor Cahill. How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 10 Chalk Level (1-10): 5 Preferred Stack: Full - LHB Preferred Preferred Players: Yelich (OF - 5300), Shaw (1B/3B - 4200), Moustakas (2B/3B - 4400), Eric Thames (1B/OF - 4300), Grandal (C - 4200) One-Off Batters Trey Mancini (1B/OF - 4200) - While the fact he’s been swinging a hot bat is a positive, I would want some shares of Mancini regardless. Estrada is a severe reverse splits pitcher, meaning he is WAY worse against RHB. Trey Mancini is a reverse splits hitter, meaning he is better against RHP. While you can also take your chance with Nunez (1B - 4100), I think Trey Mancini is close to a slam dunk today. I will be building my lineups 5/2/1 or 4/3/1 to make sure I have the ability to fit Mancini in as a one-off, no matter what. The dual-position eligibility is a huge bonus as well. Altuve (2B - 4700) and Aledmys Diaz (2B/SS - 3600) - While I only Altuve in my current projected Astros lineup for tomorrow, if they are smart and play Diaz as well, I will have them both. This is a question of an extreme reverse splits pitcher going against reverse splits righties. That’s like 2 waves meeting each other and making the amplitude bigger, even though the wavelength stays the same. PHYSICS, BITCHES. Carpenter (3B - 4200) - When a lefty has as severe reverse splits as Ryu, you bet I am going to try to get a share or two of Carpenter in there. I know Carpenter is an extreme normal splits hitter, so this doesn’t line up nearly as well as the other one offs I have listed so far, but it’s still cheap and worth a chance, especially since no one else is going to play him a L/L matchup, but he’s still leading off. Blackmon (OF - 5200) and Dahl (OF - 5100)- The one thing with Teheran is he already has a huge problem getting LHB out. I think he should be able to work through the many, many RHB in this lineup, but these 2 LHB should give him extra trouble. Teheran likes to use the 2-seamer and the change against LHB since the slider breaks in and would generally be less effective. Unfortunately, changeups and 2 seamers are 2 of the pitches that do much worse in Coors so I expect him to struggle against these 2. They will either walk every time they are up or hit HRs. Renfroe and Reyes - Both of these dudes hit LHP like they were future hall of famers. Seriously. If every pitcher the Padres went against was a southpaw, these dudes would be all-stars. So don’t ignore them just because it’s 75% of a MadBum pitching against them. Even if you don’t want to go to a mini stack of Padres, get some Renfroe and Reyes in there. Especially with Mancini, these 3 are reason enough to leave space for a one-off in your lineups today. Oh nelly. Bour (1B - 4100) - With Chacin an extreme splits pitcher and Bour an extreme splits hitter, lining up against each other, I predict great things for Bour today. Even if you don’t wanna pay up for Trout, or go to the rest of this lineup (which I don’t really recommend), Bour looks super sweet today. HR CALL OF THE SLATE: There are so many. Franmil Reyes Ok. That is a full MLB day. Without an NBA slate to worry about, I got to get a little deeper in, though still not nearly as deep as I wanted, given that I had to write about the 14 gamer until 230 pm and then finally get some sleep. Anyway, best of luck today everyone!! I am almost finished with my website. The article will still be free, and posted here, for as long as I am working for myself. If you took down a GPP thanks to my help, feel free to send me a DM here or an @ on twitter to be added to the site’s hall of fame! The site will have a membership that will provide, as far as I am concerned, what will be the best projections in MLB (and eventually NBA). I will work on them with my stat guy until they are perfect. We are going to account for things other people ignore because they are too much work. It’s going to be amazing. I am also going to be doing a daily video that will be a Q and A as well as a way for me to go deeper into everything, and discuss more of who I love or hate and why, since I can’t mention everyone due to Reddit’s character limits. As it stands now, I am almost at 30k and the limit is 40k and it was half a slate. God I love baseball.
2018 r/baseball Power Rankings -- Week 4: Astros / Marlins Dethroned, Mets, Phillies and Padres Mash, Phight, and Prey, Cubs and Brewers Collapse and Brood, Twins Tackle Top 10
Have you been Around the Horn today? Hey Sportsfans--it's time for Week 4 of baseball's Power Rankings--the unusual events described in this chronicle occurred in April, 2018, in baseball. Everyone agreed that considering their somewhat extraordinary character, they were out of place there. For its ordinariness is what strikes one first about the subreddit of baseball, which is merely a medium-sized American subreddit on the website Reddit, headquarters of cat pictures and reaction gifs. The subreddit itself, let us us admit, is ugly. It has a smug, placid air and you need time to discover what it is that makes it different from so many sports message boards in other parts of the internet. How to conjure up a picture, for instance, of a message board with strict posting rules, without any username icons or profiles, where you never hear enough about Ohtani or Mike Trout--a thoroughly negative place, in short? I digress. Every voter has their own style / system and the only voting instructions are these:
"To an extent determined individually, you must take into account how strong a team is likely to be going forward. You must, to some degree, give weight to the events and games of the previous week."
TRANSPARENCY: this link will show you who voted each team where and has added neat statistics! Week 4 Featured Voter:kcman011 representing the Rangers. Please look in thread for a glance into their voting methodology. If something is a little messed up, feel free to pester me let me know. Total Votes: 29 of 30. So close.
#
Team
Δ
Comment
Record
1
Red Sox
+1
I burned my face watching this team they're so hot. Always good to beat the Yankees, then sweep the O's (Monday's game is PPD). The team is still hampered with injuries and question marks concerning the pen. Porcello i looking good, and so is Sale. Hopefully PomPom comes back and is like he was last season. Hopefully Price comes back and is like he was in his first two starts, or like he was in his prime. The Halos are also off to a hot start. Now we will see what this team is really capable of.
13-2
2
Astros
-1
10-6
3
Angels
+3
The Angels could not have asked for a better road trip, going 6-0, and now they finish off the month with 9 of their next 12 games at home. This has been as fun of an Angels team as any that I've seen. Andrew Heaney looked solid in his 2018 debut against the Royals and his return to the rotation is certainly welcomed. The health of the pitching staff is probably the largest determinant into whether this great start to the season can turn them into contenders for the division.
13-3
4
D-Backs
+1
The Diamondbacks had another great week, winning road series against the Giants and the Dodgers. It wasn't all good news, though, as Taijuan Walker left his outing after two innings with forearm tightness. With Shelby Miller out until at least June recovering from Tommy John surgery, the Diamondbacks don't have the depth to replace Walker in the rotation, so we wait with bated breath to hear the results from today's MRI.
11-4
5
Mets
+5
Amen
12-2
6
Indians
+2
The Tribe are coming off a rain-shortened 4-1 week where their bats finally came alive. If their offense can be even half as good as their pitching, watch out.
8-6
7
Yankees
-3
Time to be positive: Gleyber Torres is batting about .400 at AAA, Stanton is batting .353/.389/.529 over the last 4 games, Tyler Austin is the hottest hitter on our roster in more ways than one, and there's nothing I love more than drawing conclusions from small sample sizes. Still, with all of the "the sky is falling" mentality from Yanks fans over the last two weeks, I feel I should be positive, because I still feel we're a playoff team.
7-7
8
Cubs
-5
The Cubs lost a series to the Pirates and split with the Braves. The obvious highlight of the week is the Cubs' 9-run 8th inning comeback created mostly by terrible Braves pitching and decent Cubs patience at the plate. The team has now hit every record of .500 along the way; hopefully it's a trend that is discontinued soon. Javy Baez had one of the best hitting weeks of his career. The starting pitching still looks shaky. The bats are hot and cold. Rainouts aren't fun.
7-7
9
Nationals
-2
Ok, silver lining tinfoil hat time: The Nationals usually have the division locked up by August and coast to the playoffs where they bounce early due to complacency. A competitive NL East and a slow start will actually be really good for us because we'll still probably make the playoffs but now we'll have to fight for it down the stretch.
7-9
10
Twins
+1
Once again, we only got to play 4 games with week. We went 3-1, taking two from the Astros and "sweeping" our one-game against the White Sox. This team has talent, Joe Mauer is batting over .400, Jose Berrios is a stud who everyone should pause to watch when possible, and optimism reigns despite our lack of games. We've got two games in Puerto Rico against the Indians, if we win them we're winning the Central, if we lose them the season is over.
https://i.imgur.com/7F5NgLn.jpg (courtesy of LATWENTYTWO) Seriously though, it's only April. Props to the Dbacks for opening up a lead in the division, but the Dodgers have struggled out of the gate in the past, before picking up the pace. But I'm ready for them to start doing that. Starting next week at San Diego, then the almost-equally-struggling Nats at home.
5-9
13
Blue Jays
0
The Jays have gone 2-0-1 in completed series this year (boo rainouts, although the Jays were winning the Cleveland series 1-0). To put this into perspective, the Jays did not win 2 series in 2017 until May 7th. The Jays are headed home for a 3 game reunion with their 2015 ALCS rivals Kansas City, and then headed to the Bronx for a 4 game set with the Yankees, a rematch of the opening day series, and the one they failed to win so far
9-5
14
Pirates
+2
The Pirates finally played a "good" team and acquitted themselves well, taking 2 of 3 from the Cubs and then winning a series in Miami. The offense slowed down this weekend against a pair of soft-tossers— which is the Pirates' weakness— but the bullpen is starting to solidfy with Josh Smoker and (presumably) Dovydas Neverauskas banished to Indianapolis. Losing Josh Harrison until June will hurt as much as a fastball to the hand, but the Pirates do have some capable backups in Adam Frazier, Sean Rodriguez and BASEBALL GOD Max Moroff. This week its 3 against an Arenado-less Rockies, and then 4 against cross-state rival Philadelphia.
11-4
15
Braves
+4
So. OK. Listen. Saturday. Not great. But let's move past it. Things are still going pretty well, yeah? Ozzie Albies has turned into a switch-hitting Jose Altuve at age 21. That's what I'm taking from Saturday. You should too.
8-6
16
Phillies
+5
Getting back on track is one thing, but sweeping the whole week is just more than an addition to it. Nice job.
9-5
17
Rockies
-2
The padres aimed at actual good baseball players. The Rockies aimed at actually winning games.
first I want to apologize in case my rankings look a little odd, I've been vacationing in Europe and there's only so many 1 am games I can catch. That said, the Brewers are continuing to underperform. Josh Hader and Matt Albers are the only two I feel confident in the bullpen and most of the bench is dealing with some injury
8-8
20
Giants
-3
The good news is the Giants have plenty of hot bats in the outfield. The bad news is they're all in Sacramento's outfield. As Pence, Jackson, and McCutchen continue to scuffle at the plate, Austin Slater and the new and improved Mac Williamson are putting up MLB The Show numbers in AAA. Can't wait to see them get called up and hit .200 because they get half a dozen at-bats every week. Oh, what happened with the Giants this week? Uh, let's see... Cueto's coming back from injury, and the team just lost 3 out of 4 to the Padres. Wait, these are my 2017 notes... Here we go, 2018! "Cueto's coming back from injury, and the team just lost 3 out of 4 to the Padres." Huh. The G-Men will try to step on snek 3 times this week, before heading to Los Angeles of Anaheim to get destroyed by Troutani. It's too damn early in the season for me to be this snarky.
6-9
21
Athletics
+1
After being shut out by the Dodgers in our first game this week, we went on to obliterate them 16-6 the next night. 16 runs?? That's preposterous for this A's team. We scored 14 runs again this weekend against the M's but only won a game thanks to a well pitched Manaea outing. Oh, and Matt Chapman is tied for first in WAR. The Oakland Mattletics chug on, certain of mediocrity and little else
6-10
22
Rangers
-2
Bartolo Colon went 7 shutout innings, Ronald Guzman and Isiah Kiner-Falefa both got their first big league homers, Joey Gallo is continuing to mash, and the Rangers won back to back games in extra innings in the defending World Series Champions' house. This season will be a struggle, especially with mounting injuries, but the last 2 games were so much fun, and it will be very interesting to see how well the call-ups play and improve throughout the season.
6-11
23
Padres
+5
Won both our series's against division opponents this week. Feels good man.
7-10
24
Black Face Birds
-1
Pitching's still bad, offense is still bad, team is still bad. "How bad is the pitching?" you may ask? Well, Dylan Bundy is currently listed as being worth 1.1 fWAR. O's starting pitching has been worth 0.6 and the pitching staff on the whole is at 0.9 fWAR. "How bad is the hitting?" you may ask? 13 players have at least 20 PAs on the team. Four of them have a wOBA above .280.
5-11
25
White Sox
+1
Three of the Sox's four games with the Twins were postponed this weekend due to rain and snow. Earlier in the week, the Sox dropped two of three to the Rays in a series where every game was decided by just one run. Matt Davidson has gotten off to a fast start hitting five home runs in the team's first 12 games.
4-8
26
Tigers
-2
The Tigers are taking a bold new strategy to avoid 100 losses this season. You can't lose a game if you don't play the game, right??? That said, I prefer coaching, playing, and watching baseball since this is mid-April, but Mother Nature decided that winter was shifted two months later this time around. Boo! This week: 3 vs. BAL, 4 vs. KCR. I don't know what the Vegas odds are for two of those games being postponed.
4-9
27
Rays
-2
Despite the team’s tough April schedule, the pitching has looked terrible. Bullpen arms Chirinos, Yarborough, Romo and Alvarado and Snell & Faria in the rotation have been the bright spots this week. Everyone else has struggled mightily. Offensively, everyone has been getting on base but are having a tough time converting those baserunners into runs.
3-12
28
Royals
-1
At least the Royals kept Ohtani in the yard. And they did not lose on Sunday, so that was a positive. Brandon Maurer was sacrificed to the bullpen gods, with his bloated corpse, and ERA, sent to Omaha. Hopefully, this appeases the baseball gods, and lets the Royals score more than three runs a game. Maybe then, the Royals can do better than 0 for the season when the opposition scores.
3-10
29
Marlins
+1
Last week: 0-3 against the Mets, 1-2 against the Pirates. Spin: Not a good week for the Fish as a unit, but at least Justin Bour has more home runs than Shohei Ohtani! Fornow,atleast. Despite requesting a trade in the offseason, J.T. Realmuto is committed to giving his all when he finally makes his return from the DL, which could happen as early as this coming week. It feels too soon for reunions with Stanton and Yelich, but here they come anyway! Up next: 2 @ NYY, 4 @ MIL.
4-11
30
Reds
-1
This is absolutely miserable. The Reds are last in the NL in both runs scored and runs allowed, the latter by a ridiculous margin. The only player on this team who has consistently been decent is... Homer Bailey? That can't be right. The Reds have 4 of the 13 worst NL hitters by wRC+. I've always been hesitant to board the 'Fire Price' train, especially since it's only April 16th, but it's clear that something needs to change. This could be John Farrell's team by the end of the month.
bathrobeDFS - Daily Analysis for April 7th, 2019 (MLB)
Hello, everyone!! bathrobeDFS is here with your Daily MLB Analysis. First, I will go over any weather concerns. Then, we will take a look at the Vegas lines. Next, I will take a look at Pitchers. Then I will look at the Hitters. All of this will be discussed as someone who plays on DraftKings. If you have any additional questions or want to see guaranteed updates in regards to breaking news- I provide additional updates, information, and stats on my twitter @bathrobeDFS. Feel free to throw me a follow cause it’s much easier and more timely to provide updates over that medium. I also have a Venmo and Patreon for those that would like to donate I also strongly suggest joining us on Flick. It’s a live chat app that allows me, and a wonderful group of people, to deal with news as it happens, talk about the slate, share lineups, and break things down in a way I simply can’t on any other medium. It is also invite only, so there are no trolls and only good, helpful people talking all different sports, all day, every day.. If you want to join us there, Download the Flick App and send me a message so I can get you an invite. That’s it! Free and easy! With that being said, let’s get into it! Main Slate Game Notes (SPs, Vegas Lines, Weather) Twins vs Phillies - 105pm
Jose Berrios, RHP - 1-0, 14.7 IP, 1.84 ERA, 0.68 WHIP, 1 BB, 14 K
Matt Strahm, LHP - 0-1, 2.2 IP, 16.88 ERA, 4.12 WHIP, 3 BB, 2 K
Adam Wainwright, RHP - 0-0, 4.0 IP, 9.00 ERA, 2.00 WHIP, 4 BB, 3 K
Vegas Line: 9, Pick Em
Weather: Partly Cloudy and Hot. Temps around 80 by the end of the game. Winds blowing out at 13mph. Nice boost to hitters.
Pitchers Great Pitchers (w/ Ownership Projections) Jose Berrios (10100, RHP) at PHI - Berrios is an amazing pitcher. Even last game, when he looked about as bad as he could, he still got you 7 IP with 7 H, 0 BB and 3 ER. While you don’t want to pay 10k for that, it also isn’t bad enough it will eliminate you from cashing (like a negative score from an ace would). I would expect him to have a better time of it in much better weather, going against a Phillies team that has some strikeouts in it. This would get even better if the Phillies play a “Sunday lineup” where they rest a couple of their big stars. Max Scherzer (11900, RHP) at NYM - Remember like 4 days ago when one of the aces was 10400 and I said “soon they will be 12k-13k and we will fondly look back on those halcyon days”? Well that came a lot faster than I thought. While you can play Scherzer any time he pitches, playing him means you either have to punt a pitcher, or play some weak ass bats. It’s going to take some real value to open up tomorrow morning when the lineups come out for us to put together a really fantastic lineup with Scherzer without punting. Still, he’s one of the best pitchers in the game, consistently, and you have to pay a premium for premium quality. Zack Wheeler (9000, RHP) vs WAS - I will keep fighting for how good Zack Wheeler is. He was the 2nd best pitcher in baseball after the all star break last season. He has incredible talent and, against a Nats lineup without, at least, Trea, I expect him to far exceed his previous outing, There’s a reason this game has an O/U of 6.5. There aren’t going to be a ton of runs score. You can get a great pitcher for pretty cheap, especially considering he’s the 6th most expensive SP on this slate and the odds are pretty good he’s not the 6th highest scoring. Mike Clevinger (9900, RHP) vs TOR - This might be one of the last times this season we can get Clevinger under 10k. It’s not MUCH under 10k, sure. But technically correct is the best type of correct after all. In my preview, I talked about how he is a dominant pitcher that strikes out a ton of people. Well in 7 IP in his first start, he only gave up 1 hit and struck out 12. Hot damn. He might have the highest score on the slate when all is said and done, and he’s 2k cheaper than Scherzer. Brad Peacock (8800, RHP) vs OAK - While he didn’t show it in his first start, Peacock is a dominant, high strikeout pitcher. While this is a powerful As lineup, it also strikes out the 2nd least in the MLB this season. I’m sure that’s going to slightly lower his upside but then you realize that he only got 5 K in 6.2 IP last start and he still got you 26 DKP. Peacock may not be the safest of the great pitchers, but he has just as high a ceiling, at the cheapest price. Good Pitchers Marcus Stroman (7100, RHP) at CLE - I am not prepared to put Stroman in the Great tier, but he sure has looked it so far. Even with a relatively poor outing last game against the O’s, he pitched around not having his best stuff and still managed to put his team in a position to win. So far he has been putting up about a K an inning, and he gets to take on a floundering Indians offense. At this price, I will take a chance he gets you the 20 DKP you would be really happy with, knowing he really has the upside for 30 DKP. Something you really won’t find in a lot of people at this price. Chris Archer (9300, RHP) vs CIN - I will start this off by saying that Archer would be a much, much better play if he was cheaper. On this slate, there are a lot of other plays that could really hit, and Archer is priced more than a LOT of them. Sure he had a great first start against STL, giving up only 2 hits, with 3 BB in 5 IP striking out 8. But I can get 20 DKP from someone priced 7k. Still, that being said, Archer is a good pitcher against a poor lineup that has some strikeouts in it. So if you want to go there, or make sure you get some in your MME, I am all for it. I just think there’s better options for the price. Great Spots Domingo German (9400, RHP) at BAL - In my Preview, I talked about how German is a high strikeout pitcher that has a hard time keeping people off base otherwise. He gives up a bunch of walks, especially, inflating his WHIP. We saw this exact thing in his first start when he went 5 IP and walked 5, striking out 7, but only giving up 1 hit and 0 ER. While this may pose a larger issue against more seasoned lineups, he should have no problem with a poor Orioles team that isn’t exactly lighting the world on fire. He’s expensive, but he has incredible upside. If he could not walk everyone, we could see him get 7 IP and 10+ K here. Sean Newcomb (8700, LHP) vs MIA - I don’t like Newcomb that much. I WILL like him in the future, but he just isn’t there yet. If you read my article on the 1st, when he got his first start of the year, I talked about how he just gives up too many walks and hits. He gets Ks, sure, but he can’t get out of his own way, and he has a ton of trouble finding his control. Well, against the Cubs that day, it took Newcomb 91 pitches to get through 4 IP. He walked 4, gave up 4 hits, and struck out only 3. He somehow didn’t allow a run, though. And that was against the Cubs. If he could find slightly more control, imagine what he could do against this Marlins team?? GPP Plays Brad Keller (7200, RHP) at DET - Keller is someone who will strikeout less than 9 per 9, but he has incredible ground ball stuff. He showed that on both opening day and in his last start when he induced 10 ground ball outs with 5 Ks. The difference was, in his 2nd start, he couldn’t find his control and he walked 4 batters, which, as is often the case, led to runs. If he can work the strike zone and keep his pitches down in the zone again, he could have another 25+ DKP day against a decent-but-not-great Tigers squad. It’s not the safest play by any means, but it is certainly worth a GPP chance given the price, and what playing him will open up (even though he is more expensive than Stroman somehow). Caleb Smith (7900, LHP) at ATL - The Braves are a good offense. I can’t deny that. But Caleb Smith is a really good pitcher. If you watched his start against the Mets (which I did), you saw someone with just easy strike out stuff that is murder on LHB and isn’t too much easier against RHB when his breaking stuff is on. This will help to somewhat neutralize Freeman and Markakis, and it pushes McCann and Inciarte out of the lineup. While there are some cheaper folks I like a little better, he is still a hell of a GPP play with incredible K upside no one else will be on. Matthew Strahm (6400, LHP) at STL - I was all over Strahm in his first start. If you go back and read, you can see why. Dude was dominant coming up, has killer stuff, and was in a fantastic matchup. Of course, the first start is always a tough one and he got flamed. I mean 5 ER in 2.2 IP with 3 BB and 8 Hits. It was HORRIBLE. But, that being said, I will go right back there today as a GPP play. Nothing I wrote last time is any less true, he just had a horrible go of it last time. I will bet on him living up to his talent level a little more. I mean, when someone that was 9200 is 6400 the next start, there is some ability to really get yourself over the field in GPPs by riding the wave of recency bias. No Thanks Kyle Hendricks (7000, RHP) at MIL - Hendricks is a great real-life pitcher, but he doesn’t strike anyone out. While we may be able to use him on other, smaller slates, we don’t want to go there on a slate with this many games, even at this price, especially against a tough Brewers offense. Batters Stacking Opportunities (in no particular order) Yankees vs David Hess (RHP, @BAL) - I don’t really care that the Blue Jays made David Hess look like a Cy Young winner his last time out. They did that against a lot of bad pitchers to start the season off. Last year Hess had a WHIP of 1.38 and a H9 of 1.9 with a K/9 of 6. He should get eaten up here. How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 9 Chalk Level (1-10): 9 Preferred Stack: Full Preferred Players: After Judge (OF - 5600), start at the top and work your way down. Twins vs Zach Eflin (RHP, @PHI) - Zach Eflin is a very underrated pitcher. He showed what he could do to a righty heavy lineup last game against the Nats when he struck out 9 in 5 IP, giving up 0 runs. The problem is the Twins are projected to have 5 lefties tomorrow, some of which can do real damage. While I expect Eflin to be relatively popular at this price, the smarter play is to take the LHB against him in a smaller stack. How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 8 Chalk Level (1-10): 4 Preferred Stack: Mini - LHB Preferred Players: Kepler (OF - 4200), Polanco (SS - 4000), Rosario (OF - 4300), Marwin Gonzalez (3B - 4100), Castro (C - 3400) Royals vs Tyson Ross (RHP, @DET) - The last time Tyson Ross was in the AL, he was a member of the Texas Rangers in 2017 where he was so horrible at the beginning of the year, he only got 10 starts before they pulled him altogether. He had a 6.18 FIP and 1.837 WHIP. His BB/9 was 6.8. While last season he got that down, it was down to 3.7 which is still awful. And pitching in SD and STL are going to be a lot different than moving back to the AL. It’s also worth noting that his bread and butter is his slider, which makes him devastating to RHB, but also makes him an extreme splits pitcher, giving up a BA/OPS of .176/.565 to RHB and .294/848 to LHB last season. And that was a good year. If you play RHB, you are counting on some bullpen runs. How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 10 Chalk Level (1-10): 8 Preferred Stack: Full or Mini - LHP ONLY Preferred Players: Mondesi (SS - 4600), O'Hearn (1B - 3700)... Gordon (OF - 3500), Hamilton (OF - 3900). Check the lineup in the morning and play all the LHB Pirates vs Anthony DeSclafani (RHP, CIN) - Regardless of him relative success against the Brewers in his first start, I find it exceedingly hard to trust DeSclafani. After missing his age 27 season, he came back in 2018 with 21 GS, putting up a 4.83 FIP with a 1.287 WHIP. He gave up a 9.2 H/9, 1.9 H9 (holy SHIT), 2.3 BB/9, and a decent 8.5 K/9, though that was far an away his career high, and almost a full K over his career average. I mean, he gave up 24 HR and 30 BB. That is insane. Now, let’s get even crazier- his OPS to RHB was .676. That means that, against LHB his OPS was a stunning .917. 30 of the 233 PAs by lefties resulted in an XBH. That is really astounding. So, unless he turns it around completely, make sure you don’t play him and you do everything you can to target any and all LHB you can against him until he loses his job. How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 8 Chalk Level (1-10): 4 Preferred Stack: Mini - LHB only Preferred Players: Frazier (2B - 3900), Bell (1B - 3900), Melky (OF - 3800), Shuck (OF - 3400) White Sox vs Wade LeBlanc (LHP, SEA) - Sometimes I will want to go against LeBlanc. Sometimes I will just want go avoid him. This is one of those times I will go against him LeBlanc doesn’t strike anyone out. While he normally is fine at limiting baserunners, against an underrated White Sox offense against LHB, I think we can find a sneaky stack here that a lot of people will not be on How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 9 Chalk Level (1-10): 3 Preferred Stack: Full Preferred Players: Start with Abreu (1B - 4200), Moncada (3B - 4500), and Eloy (OF - 4300), then start at the top and work your way down Mariners vs Ivan Nova (RHP, @CHW) - Some things are just pretty damn simple. Ivan Nova is a terrible pitcher who can’t keep people off the bases and then gives up a ton of HRs. You can stack against him any time he pitches, regardless of who he is playing. How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 8 Chalk Level (1-10): 6 Preferred Stack: Full or Mini - LHB *Preferred Players: Smith (OF - 4200), Bruce (OF - 4100), Narvaez (C - 3400), then start at the top and work down. * Cubs vs Zach Davies (RHP, @MIL) - Zach Davies is another pitcher that we are generally going to stack against every time he pitches, especially when his opponent is a legitimately good offense. He gives up a TON of baserunners and his career best H9 was 1.1. In Miller Park, the ball should be flying here, and the Cubs are one of the best stacks on the slate. How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 9 Chalk Level (1-10): 9 Preferred Stack: Full Preferred Players: Start at the top and work your way down Astros vs Mike Fiers (RHP, OAK) - Man, just when I was getting super tired, things get super easy. Fiers is horrible. He lets a TON of people on base. And he gives up an absolute fuckload of HR. The Astros are the best stack on the slate, as far as I’m concerned. How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 10 Chalk Level (1-10): 10 Preferred Stack: Full *Preferred Players: Start at the top and go down in order. * Padres vs The Ghost of Adam Wainwright (RHP, @STL) - Wainwright is not who he was. He is one of the worst pitchers in baseball right now, and it’s sad to see. In his last start against the Pirates, he only got through 4 IP, giving up 4 hits, 4 ER, 4 walks and, of course, 3 K. for 2.2 DKP and 1 happy bathrobe cause I stacked the Pirates. Tonight I will do the same against Waino with the Padres. How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 10 Chalk Level (1-10): 4 Preferred Stack: Full Preferred Players: Everyone that is breathing for the Padres One-Off Batters Goldschmidt (1B - 4700) - While I do have faith that Strahm rebounds, he is also a LHP going against Goldie, which means Goldie should be 5500 and the fact he’s not means we are going to make some money playing him tonight, even as a one off HR CALL OF THE SLATE: Fernando Tatis, Jr. While I would normally go into both the 3 game afternoon slate and the showdown for tonight, I also have a 14 game slate for the NBA that I have to have done by about 1pm tomorrow, so I have to get to work on that ASAP. Best of luck everyone!!
bathrobeDFS - Daily Analysis for April 13th, 2019 (Early Slate)
Hello, everyone!! bathrobeDFS is here with your Daily MLB Analysis. First, I will go over any weather concerns. Then, we will take a look at the Vegas lines. Next, I will take a look at Pitchers. Then I will look at the Hitters. All of this will be discussed as someone who plays on DraftKings. If you have any additional questions or want to see guaranteed updates in regards to breaking news- I provide additional updates, information, and stats on my twitter @bathrobeDFS. Feel free to throw me a follow cause it’s much easier and more timely to provide updates over that medium. I also have a Venmo and Patreon for those that would like to donate I also strongly suggest joining us on Flick. It’s a live chat app that allows me, and a wonderful group of people, to deal with news as it happens, talk about the slate, share lineups, and break things down in a way I simply can’t on any other medium. It is also invite only, so there are no trolls and only good, helpful people talking all different sports, all day, every day.. If you want to join us there, Download the Flick App and send me a message so I can get you an invite. That’s it! Free and easy! With that being said, let’s get into it! Game Notes (SPs, Vegas Lines, Weather) With the advent of my website, I will be handling this a little differently. It’s MUCH MUCH easier for me to just do all this on a spreadsheet to display on the site, so I am going to do that for baseball. I will be adding more information onto this. This is the simplest rough template I put together. But it will evolve. I will put stats in for batters, etc… It’s gonna be a one stop location for everything you need to know about a lineup This is the google docs link (until the website is launched this weekend Early Slate Pitchers Great Pitchers Jose Berrios (10100, MIN) vs DET - Berrios is a Cy Young caliber pitcher with a world of talent and incredible stuff. He hasn’t had the greatest start to the year, but this is a get right spot against a poor Tigers team that may be without Castellanos tomorrow. I don’t expect him to be exceedingly popular on a small slate, either, given the Snell option, but I think it’ll be worth it to pivot if you want. There aren’t many other pitchers here with his upside, or with as good a matchup. Blake Snell (10900, TB) at TOR - There aren’t MANY here with his upside, but we all know Snell is one of the best pitchers in the game and the reigning Cy Young. You can play him every time he pitches, and, given the fact some of the other aces are 12k, he is way underpriced for his upside. Great Spots Rick Porcello (9100, RHP) vs BAL - Porcello is a hit or miss pitcher, as I say. Someone who we can use against bad teams, given his upside and his skillset, and avoid when he’s going against really good teams. Well, Porcello has a good matchup here against a decent, but not exceptional, Orioles team. I don’t think he’s great, again. And I think he’s grossly overpriced. But I can understand if you want to go there. And, if you MME, I would definitely give exposure to him. Kyle Hendricks (7000, RHP) vs LAA - Normally, I am not a big fan of playing Hendricks. He’s a good pitcher in real life, but not one for fantasy. He doesn’t strike a lot of people out, basically. But, against an Angels team that should be missing Trout and loses the DH, plus given Hendricks’ insanely low price and the lack of other options on this smaller slate, I think you have to, if not consider him, lock him in here tonight. Kyle Freeland (6200, LHP) vs SFG - I know Tyler Austin, Posey, and Longoria are great against LHP, and you can play any of them as one-offs today. But I also know Freeland is a fantastic pitcher in real life, especially away from Coors Field. And the park in SF is about as good as it gets for pitchers. He is grossly underpriced, and I expect Freeland to be the absolute chalk here, and for good reason. I am going to be all over him as well. No Thanks MadBum (9300, LHP) vs COL - I just can’t go there yet. He still doesn’t look right. He’s doing ok, sure, but he’s only doing ok. I have no interest in playing Colorado in this park (though you can ALWAYS play Arenado and Story against any LHP). Either way, I sure as hell have no interest in him at that price when the odds are just as good he gets single digit points as he does 15. And even 15 won’t cut it here. Batters Stacking Opportunities (in no particular order) White Sox vs Sabathia (LHP, @NYY) - Sabathia is like 150 years old and this is his first start this season. He is passable as a starter at best, but he is absolutely not someone we are going to prioritize. Especially not at that price. The White Sox players are underrated, especially Moncada, although he’s worse against LHP. How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 8 Chalk Level (1-10): 4 Preferred Stack: Full Preferred Players: Tim Anderson, Abreu, Castillo, Garcia, Eloy, then whoever else you want. Yankees vs Ivan Nova (RHP, CWS) - Ivan Nova is a passable pitcher. He keeps the ball on the ground, generally. But he doesn’t strike anyone out. So, going against this Yankees team, we can expect quite a few of those balls to get hit out of the park. How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 8 Chalk Level (1-10): 10 Preferred Stack: Full Preferred Players: Always start with Judge, especially with his splits. Then you can just start at the top Red Sox vs Cashner (RHP, BAL) - It’s getting late, given how much work I had to do today on the website and everything so i can keep this real simple. One of the worst pitchers in baseball vs. the best offense. Don’t set caps for this one. How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 10 Chalk Level (1-10): 10 Preferred Stack: Full Preferred Players: Everyone. Start at the top Twins vs Tyson Ross (RHP, DET) - Tyson Ross used to be a good pitcher. He has a nasty slider that, when it works, can be pretty devastating. But it also gives him extreme, extreme splits. If he is going against a Righty heavy lineup, we can pencil him in and low price and ownership. But against this Twins lineup, who I project to have 5 Lefty batters right now, I will be all over them How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 9 Chalk Level (1-10): 5 Preferred Stack: Full or Mini - LHB ONLY Preferred Players: Kepler, Polanco, Rosario, Marwin, Castro, any other LHB Cubs vs Stratton (RHP, LAA) - A pitcher prone to HR going to Wrigley Field with the wind blowing out double digits??? The only problem here is deciding which players to use, or whether to use this stack, the Red Sox, the Yankees and how to fit all of them in. How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 9 Chalk Level (1-10): 9 Preferred Stack: Full Preferred Players: Rizzo then Schwarber then Descalso or Zobrist then Heyward then go back to the top and work back down Rays vs Clay Buchholz (RHP, @TOR) - Thornton is a good pitcher and the Rays smashed him yesterday. The Rays have made a habit of smashing a bunch of good pitchers lately. Well now they get Buchholz who is one of the worst pitchers in the game. I don’t even know if he should be in AAA. GIven how popular the other stacks will be, this will fly under the radar and, honestly, it shouldn’t How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 10 Chalk Level (1-10): 4 Preferred Stack: Full or Mini Preferred Players: Make sure you get Meadows and Pham in there. I also love Lowe and Kiermaier. Then take your pick Pirates vs Anibal Sanchez (RHP, @WAS) - I don’t like stacking the Pirates every day, but they keep going against such horrible pitchers. I don’t know how else to avoid having some exposure to them, especially at these prices. I know a ton of other stacks will be more popular (and they SHOULD be), but not many will be cheap enough to let you take Snell and Berrios if you want. How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 8 Chalk Level (1-10): 3 Preferred Stack: Full or Mini Preferred Players: Jung-Ho Kang is in an amazing spot. As are Marte and Gonzalez. Then take anyone else you from, starting from the top. Nationals vs Archer (RHP, PIT) - I think Archer is going to be pretty damn popular today. But I think the Nats are set up well to get to him. He isn’t going against CIN again, here. This is a team where Eaton, Soto, Rendon and Robles are all in great spots, and not priced nearly high enough. How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 6 Chalk Level (1-10): 4 Preferred Stack: Mini Preferred Players: Eaton, Soto, Rendon, Robles. One-Off Batters Addressed in the course of the article. It’s 4am. Sorry. HR CALL OF THE SLATE: Jung-Ho Kang. **I WILL BE BACK LATER ON TODAY WITH THE REST OF THIS ARTICLE.* I need to sleep and do the NBA and then I’ll finish this up in the early afternoon.
An Open Letter to the Oakland Raiders: Why the Raiders Will Stay in Oakland Raiders fans, sports fans at large, Oakland natives and anyone else who supports the Raider organization to stay in Oakland, the city where the team was born, this is for you. The value of a professional sports team to its community is without parallel. It is priceless. The touchpoints of a pro team are woven into society. The city of Oakland is a special place. It is my native city. A prideful city at the heart of the Bay Area. Oakland is diverse, a town of ingenuity, an historic and culturally rich city and a brilliant future for generations to come. I have held on to the idea the Raiders franchise and the city of Oakland could find a middle ground to maintain their residence where the team was founded near 60 years ago. Some have laughed, some booed, some called me delusional. It’s a long, complicated saga between the team owners and the city leaders. Caught in the middle is the die-hard to the casual fan of all ages, local business owners who greatly benefit from having the Raiders players and employees living in the city limits and the surrounding communities. I’m not naïve to think it is going to be an easy solution. The most impactful things in life rarely are easy. This letter is not about casting blame at the team leadership or the city government. This unfortunate situation is decades in the making. Both sides hold some responsibility to this crisis. No one is innocent. Every business has the right to move to another city or state. It is understood at some point it is more advantageous for the business to cut its losses and move to a better business environment, for the health of the company. I support a business leader’s choice to re-locate. It is usually good business to look out for the employees and the survival of the company. This is no ordinary business, and this is no typical situation. An NFL franchise is a rare earth material. There are only 32. A lot of people beyond the employer is affected. A pro team is a vital asset to its home city. Oaklanders understand this fact. We know what its like to lose a team, to get it back and to potentially lose it again. Insanity. A tragedy of epic proportions. The most impacted is the youth. It tells them, what is important to you doesn’t matter. That the business decision to leave is more important than being supportive to the fans. The players current and former are also caught in the middle. The years of community connection, charitable involvement would go away, like water to vapor. The players and team employees graciously give back to the region in immeasurable ways, donating copious hours to local charities, hospital visits, entrepreneurial programs, physical fitness camps all for local youth groups, veterans support programs, at risk population services, visits to schools, every student will remember for a lifetime, the list goes on! There is a dollar amount on an annualized basis that could be calculated. An economics disciplined person is capable of an estimated financial impact for one year and deduce how many years it will be before the financial impasse between the City and team will be resolved. Regardless the dollar amount the two sides can’t agree on, let’s figure the offset. What is the long-term benefit for an agreeable financial amount to keep the Raiders, versus how many years it would take to compensate the communities affected? For example, the loss of the team means the sphere of philanthropic contributions in per person hours donated to charitable causes and the financial impact (donations, grants, lost commerce revenue) by players, team staff, visiting teams, their fans and our fans during the NFL season. The equation solution is not linear. When all the pros and cons are factored, the long-term benefit to the region at large and for the sports fans far exceeds a big eye-popping number, that likely scares many people to think critically about the overall impact. The harsh reality, without a well-conceived, and equitable solution, the sure loser is all the local businesses, fans and charitable causes benefiting from the team’s residency. For non-sports fans who may not care whether the Raiders stay or leave, the non-monetary impact is worthy of supporting this just cause. Odds are one or more of your loved ones is or will be inspired by a player or team employee whether it be in the sciences, volunteerism or just feeling good because someone took time to listen and share their story. The selfless actions by staff and players is a gift to the local citizenry. What does inspiration for a life-time cost? It is an intangible. Also affected are the part-time stadium workers who do it purely for the love of the team, feeling like part of something much bigger. The team employees either must relocate or be out of a job. If you have been to a Raider game, it’s a spectacle. In the mid/late 90’s I worked for a company based a few blocks from the stadium. For all time I will remember watching the armada of RVs and campers lined up on a Friday evening outside the parking lot awaiting for the gates to open, whether it was a traditional Sunday kickoff of a Monday night national game, the fans are there, days in advance. We live our un-yielding passion for the Silver and Black. The Raiders fans are a legion, we transcend being fans just because football is fun to watch. The fanbase is educated about the team’s legacy. Oakland and neighboring cities will feel the ripple effect. The activities surrounding the team, pre-game and post-game will suffer. Some will go out of business; others will struggle to survive. Their patrons will lose the game day community, where we all despite our broad spectrum of personalities, and lifestyles come together, unified as a Raider Nation. Youth football programs and charitable involvement will falter. It is not all doom and gloom because there is one thing the people of Oakland, the greater region, the Raider fan base can do. Stand united. Save our Oakland Raiders. The following are four points to save the team, keep them home, where they belong:
A vacancy next door opens a legitimate reason for the Raiders to stay. The Golden State Warriors moved to San Francisco, done deal. The Warriors are a Bay Area treasure. The team is a beloved sports franchise for all time. The team’s 40 plus years calling Oakland home runs deep in the city’s history and will always be fondly remembered. Three world championships in five years is legendary, plus one more in the 1970s, makes four titles. The Oracle arena, dubbed “Roaracle”, a fitting name indeed, is now (largely) an abandoned venue, spare the occasional concert or indoor sporting event. Other venues will be excellent replacements, Henry J Kaiser, Fox Theater, not to mention the potential building a new music/arts venue in the future. The adjacent coliseum stadium home to the Raiders and the Athletics (A’s) of major league baseball (MLB) is the only duel sport franchise facility (two different pro sports) in the United States. It is possible both factions, city leaders and the Raiders management have allowed this detail to cloud a solution.
The plain fact, it is a health risk to the athletes. It’s an eyesore to see as a fan and in short, an embarrassment. The Oakland/Alameda county complex facility is aged. A solution is to use the existing footprint, tear down Oracle and the stadium and build two new facilities for the Raiders and A’s. For example, position the two buildings in current parking lots, A and C . The grounds are approximately 120 acres, large enough to accommodate two stadiums. The infrastructure is in part already in place. The local transit system Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) station is adjacent including a footbridge from the station to the stadium grounds. More important is the impact on the immediate neighborhood. Without the games and fans visiting near year-round, the neighborhood will slip into abandon. It is understood the state of California is strict with maintaining natural habitats. The environmental design and architecture industries have come a long way. There isn’t a better time to secure competitive bids to design an improved facility making a world class destination for sports fans and outdoor enthusiasts. A recent “60 Minutes” news program segment highlighted a Dutch architecture firm. Their winning design is an environmentally conscience solution, preserving beach dunes and constructing a community parking structure underground to enhance the experience for beach goers and tourists. Like much of the Netherlands, the land the stadium complex sits on is a natural marsh system, in a tidal zone, meaning at certain times of day is below sea level. Oakland is not only a proud city, it is also a 30 plus year member of the “Tree City USA” program. . A testament to the city’s long-term commitment to urban natural habitats, parks and wilderness areas. A modern design will build much needed green space, and sports/recreation facilities for the surrounding residents. The East Oakland community is long overdue for an urban revival. For long time city residents, it’s an obvious need. Some local leaders rightly foresee a land grab (if the Raiders relocate) by deep pocketed industrialists. The locals will certainly be in a more tenuous situation. Whether the Raiders stay with the current site or choose a different location locally, the neighborhood deserves to use the stadium land space for a new community use, park space, recreation, sky’s the limit. Now it dovetails to the second concept:
The A’s have put forward a beautiful rendering of a new baseball park along the Oakland estuary waterfront . It is a long-neglected part of the city. The waterfront holds a lot of promise for the sky-rocketing real estate prices. Oakland is in effect the central hub of the greater Bay Area based on the transportation (freeways and trains) systems and geographically is in a prime location. When the A’s move to their new facility, it leaves plenty of latitude for the Raiders to stay at the current site as referenced or choose another location, for example, the old Oakland Army Base or in a neighboring city, such as Emeryville, keeping in mind the benefits to build an environmentally compatible facility that will also bring a sustainable revitalization to the local community. During construction of a new facility, the Raiders could play at Cal Berkeley Memorial Stadium or the San Jose State stadium for a season, if construction requires a short-term home. While constructing a new stadium in one of the previously suggested sites or a different location, a simultaneous project to extend a BART line to transport attendees to the stadium and a revitalized neighborhood infrastructure could be developed, a matter of smart planning and logistics.
A well-designed revision of other public transit services and ride-sharing providers will be part of the master plan too. It doesn’t need to be another immovable barrier to the Raiders staying in Oakland. There are numerous sensible locations for the team to build a new home. A move to another state is irrational. The Bay Area is one of the largest and most diverse metropolitan areas in the country. Oakland is one of the most diverse cities by most any measure, it is chromatic. The rival 49ers moved to Silicon Valley, far from its namesake. The Raiders are the closest proximity to all the world-class tourist destinations in San Francisco. By BART or car, Oakland airport and the coliseum complex, is closer for visitors to S.F. than the 49ers home base in Silicon Valley. All the visiting team fans and can still stay in San Francisco and take public transit to the game without much effort. For the football fan, keeping the Raiders in Oakland allows you to bring family, friends or business associates to experience a pro football game (and baseball the same weekend if the time of year is right) and visit all the renowned San Francisco sites. As a bonus, downtown Oakland, Jack London Square and Oakland Chinatown are equally entertaining on a game day or any day. For all those who think Oakland is an unsafe or a dull place, make a visit, see for yourself what it’s like. A dynamic city, great food, electric night life, street festivals, an urban lake and park space are all easy to access. The views from the Oakland Hills is the definition of the “million dollar” view. On any day of the year, the Golden Gate Bridge shrouded in fog or a golden sunshine filled skyline view of downtown San Francisco is second to none. Oakland is beautiful; town pride is splashed across the city.
Las Vegas is an amazing city. It is the entertainment capital of the world. My Dad lives in Vegas. When I visit it is always as great time. Las Vegas does not need the Raiders. Vegas has so much to offer, a glittering oasis in the middle of a vast desert, it is like no other city in the world. Their new stadium is going to be an excellent facility for Super Bowls, NCAA championships in football, basketball, exhibition matches for Latin and European football clubs, highlight national televised major sports events, (think Yankees vs. Red Sox, or Lakers vs. Celtics), all-star games, MMA, soccer, motorsports, the list goes on. The stadium will be a draw no matter what or who’s name is emblazoned on the marquee. Some cities may not like the idea Vegas be a de facto home for the Super Bowl or All-Star contests, consider the alternative. Would Dallas or Miami prefer to lose their football teams to save the occasional Super Bowl host city duties? I don’t think so. The championship games could continue to rotate to other cities. Vegas is an excellent location. The story of the Las Vegas Golden Knights is a sports story for the ages. The fans are passionate about their hockey team. They were forged in the desert oasis.
I doubt there’s a Knights fan that is OK with the team deciding to move. Some may scoff at the proposition. It’s happened before, Seattle Pilots (MLB) moved to Milwaukee re-named the Brewers after one season, Kansas City Scouts (NHL) moved to Denver after two seasons, L.A. Chargers moved to San Diego, after their inaugural season (now relocated back to L.A. after 50 plus seasons). Regardless, fan to fan understand the catastrophic loss to Oakland. Understand, it already happened to us once. Now the team and city can’t come together to prevent it happening to us again, yet. Vegas, you don’t need the Raiders. You have world class music, theater, dining, hotels, shopping, gaming and are primed to be the undisputed “big game” city the world over. We Raider fans will happily visit, spend our tourist dollars to see our elite players in pro bowl games, Super Bowl games, the occasional marquee showdown against a division rival (similar to NFL games played in Mexico City and London), and be in solidarity to your Golden Knights being home grown for decades to come.
The alternate if the Raiders leadership won’t make amends with Oakland and save our team, for the fans, for the community there is always a buyer. An NFL franchise has a line out the door and around the corner for buyers. The Bay Area is home to 18 “Fortune 500” companies. Tech giants, Alphabet (Google), Intel, Facebook, and Oracle (the former Warriors arena name sponsor) and thriving tech companies like Pandora (headquartered in Oakland), corporate titans, Wells Fargo and Chevron all call the Bay Area home. The tech world has proved its ability to succeed in professional sports, “shark”, Mark Cuban (Dallas Mavericks), Steve Ballmer (Los Angeles Clippers) and Paul Allen’s family (Seahawks).
There are also scores of local investors with deep pocketbooks living off the news wire radar. Professional athletes are a natural fit as well, Michael Jordan, Mario Lemieux, Venus and Serena Williams all have financial interest in pro franchises. Athletes locally raised or with Bay Area ties will make up an excellent ownership team, Rickey Henderson, Marshawn Lynch, Gary Payton, C.C. Sabathia, Tiger Woods, Ken Dorsey, Natalie Coughlin, and Langston Walker to name a few. Include entertainers, Sheila E, Carlos Santana, Todd Shaw (AKA Too Short), Billie Joe Armstrong, Mr. Jackson (AKA Ice Cube), James Hetfield, the incomparable women of En Vogue, lest we forget Mr. Burrell (Hammer don’t hurt’em). The pool of prominent citizens is deep and abundant. And some pretty stratospheric A-list entertainers too, Tom Hanks, a long time Oakland ambassador, Jessica Alba, and Guy Fieri. The star power is evidence Raider Nation is one of the brightest in all pro sports fandom. Let’s put the word out, get the stars aligned to shine above the Oakland skies. If there isn’t a viable ownership group, making the Raiders a community owned franchise like the Green Bay Packers is a strong option. The fans/investors proved championship caliber football can be achieved by a team without a private ownership group. The Raiders are well suited for such an enterprise. Oakland, if it were an island to itself is populous enough to qualify as an NFL city. According to the US Census, the city’s population is larger than Cleveland, New Orleans, Buffalo and Green Bay. Reality, NFL cities include the surrounding metro area, which makes sense. The home cities for all pro sports franchises draw fan bases from the greater region. Considering the region, where the Raiders live, it’s in the top 10 metro areas by population, making Oakland an ideal location for an NFl team. The Raiders also have a long-standing natural rivalry in pro sports, the Bay Area, and the Southern California region is balanced, two NFL teams in each metropolis. Moving the Raiders would upset that historic balance. Any of the above ideas are the beginning of sensible options to achieve the greater goal. Integrating any one with another idea, for example a new stadium for the team and say, community ownership is very possible. For example, a third-party investor group building and owning a stadium with rights to use for other events beyond NFL schedules is a solve with respect to Oakland city leaders unwilling to budge on local government financing. The Raiders fans, particularly the local fans have been lulled into a state of lethargy. All the years of the Davis family threatening to move the team to various cities and squabbling with the city. Lawsuits are thrown around. It’s become a situation of one ups-man-ship. Oakland leadership is no better by suing the team and the NFL. A business being sued elicits a not so friendly attitude to reconciliation. Let bygones be bygones. We the Raider fans, Raider Nation have been loyal, passionate fans from all walks of life, ethnicities, geographic backgrounds, we come together on game days knowing the opposing team brings their “A” game because the legend of the Raiders means something across the league. The mystique of the Raiders is because of Oakland, the pirate logo, the “Black Hole”, the tailgating before the games. These characteristics known around the world could not have happened anywhere except Oakland. No other place can replicate how the history of the Oakland Raiders has contributed to the popularity and community bonding our team brings. The same can be said of the Philadelphia Eagles or the Chicago Bears, no one could fathom these storied teams moving. The fans would not allow it, neither will we. The Raiders are worth making a grand last effort to keep the team in our hometown. We show our commitment to a team that bluntly put out a sub-par product, possibly on purpose. Maybe a nefarious attempt to make a future re-location not so bothersome to the locals. Such is speculation yet, not out of the realm of reason. The cumulative record of the Raiders over the last 10 years would make a lot of fans change loyalty. Not Raider Nation. We support the Silver and Black because we know the legacy of the team, we know there are going to be brighter days ahead, because we band together to stand up for what’s right. We believe in the ebbs and flows, and we are smart enough to recognize once a championship team, the heights of success are absolutely, achievable. The Raiders franchise belongs in Oakland. NFL teams are a rarity. Ranking the value of pro football teams, the Raiders are a comfortable, #18 out of #32. An estimated value near $2,000,000,000 . Billion with a “B”. Interestingly the same report notes the debt to value of the Raiders is tied at the second highest of all NFL teams at 33%, in a tie with Atlanta. Only the L.A. Rams is a higher debt to value, understandably because the owner is building a brand-new world-class stadium that will rival any pro sports arena the world over. Considering this information, does the Davis family really need to wreck a community? $2B will buy their family interest in another franchise or a mountain top castle if that’s what excites their wants. To Mr. Davis, you may or may not be aware, your actions are reviled by most of the Raider Nation. It doesn’t have to go down that way. By selling or working diligently to preserving the Oakland Raiders, your reputation will be exalted in the hearts and minds of Raiders fans. Many fans have and will disparage your decision to move our team however consider all the good will a change of heart will make on tens of thousands of people, families, children, people you will never meet. We will be thankful you chose to keep our Raiders in Oakland. To all the Raiders fans and sports fans at large who support keeping the Raiders in Oakland share your stories, what going to a pro sports event means to you. How the Raiders family, players, employees have impacted your life for the better or why the Raiders staying home matters to you? When we stand united for a worthy cause, a civil, well organized and impassioned citizenry can make the impossible possible. Respectfully- An Oakland Raiders fan
Yankees vs. Red Sox ALDS Schedule. Both Games 1 and 2 will be played in Boston this week, before the series shifts to New York. Friday, October 5 at Boston: 7:30 p.m. ET Yankees vs. Red Sox odds: 2018 MLB picks, predictions, best bets for April 11 Our advanced computer model simulated Wednesday's Yankees-Red Sox game 10,000 times Yankees betting favorites vs. Red Sox in Friday series opener The New York Yankees visit the Boston Red Sox in the final series of the regular season for these rivals, with the sportsbooks siding ... Yankees vs. Red Sox odds, Vegas line: Model on 10-4 roll locks in MLB picks for July 1 Our advanced computer model simulated Sunday's Red Sox-Yankees game 10,000 times New York Yankees Odds, MLB Postseason Lines 2021 Yankees World Series Betting There are currently no lines available for this sport. Either there are no odds open to bet on, or the sport is not in season at this time. The best rivalry in baseball is Red Sox vs. Yankees, but it doesn’t figure to be much of a rivalry this year with the Yankees a powerhouse and the Red Sox one of the AL’s worst teams.They open a series at Yankee Stadium on Friday with the Yanks as heavy favorites on the MLB odds.. Red Sox vs Yankees – MLB Odds & Picks How to Bet Red Sox at Yankees MLB Odds & TV Info Career vs. Yankees: 11-9 with 3.71 ERA in 25 starts, including 1-1 with a 11.45 ERA (14 ER, 11 IP) in three starts in 2019. New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox: By the Numbers. The Yankees are 17-11 in Tanaka’s starts. The Red Sox are 16-12 behind Porcello. The Yankees lead the season series 12-5 with the O/U at 9-8. The New York Yankees (29-21) and host Boston Red Sox (19-32) open a three-game series Friday at Fenway Park at 7:30 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Yankees-Red Sox MLB betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.. Thursday: The Yankees completed a three-game home sweep of the Toronto Blue Jays with a 10-7 victory, winning their eighth in a row. Opening Odds Analysis. Early action on New York has moved the Yankees up to -200 favorites after opening at -180. The Red Sox are now going off at +170 at home while the total has remained steady at 10.5 runs. Boston is 0-7 against the Yankees this season with all seven of those games having been played in New York. Starting Pitchers Analysis Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Monday ... The MLB odds at YouWager have New York at -160 with a total of 10 and it’s ... DRF, Vegas Insider, VSiN, StatFox, Don Best, Doc's Sports and ...
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