Before every Bills’ game I spend some time, probably too much time, digging into how the Bills roster stacks up against their opponent’s. While doing this I specifically look at 5 matchups; Bills’ Pass Offense vs. Opponent’s Pass Defense, Bills’ Rush Offense vs. Opponent’s Rush Defense, Bills’ Pass Defense vs. Opponent’s Pass Offense, Bills’ Rush Defense vs. Opponent’s Rush Offense, Bills’ Special Teams vs. Opponent’s Special Teams. After doing all of this I try to come up with reasons “Why We Will Lose” and “Why We Will Win” ultimately leading to a prediction. Below I present 2020’s 18th iteration of this analysis for the Bills upcoming home game against the Ravens. Included is a scale to rank the advantage in each matchup from 👏👏👏👏👏 (Massive Advantage) to 👏 (Minimal Advantage).
NOTE: If you have followed this series all season long be prepared, these playoff posts are very long and highly detailed. If this is your first time reading, I hope you enjoy and can find the time to finish the whole thing.
Bills’ Passing Offense vs. Ravens’ Passing Defense
After yet another great performance throwing the ball the Buffalo Bills are proving that they can beat anyone and everyone through the air. In their past 4 games the Bills have played the #11 (DEN), #18 (NWE), #6 (MIA), and #8 (IND) pass defenses, according to Football Outsiders Pass Defense DVOA, and have gone 108/153 (70.6%) for 1415 yards and a 12:2 TD:INT Ratio (Josh Allen’s stats here). Making the Bills recent run of success more impressive is that they have been successful against starkly different schemes, with tangible evidence the past two weeks. The Dolphins, who predominately run man coverage, were shredded for 388 passing yards, 124 of which came while targeting First Team All-Pro CB Xavien Howard. The Bills followed up this performance with Josh Allen picking apart the Colt’s Zone First Scheme for a Playoff leading passer rating of 121.6 (His regular season Passer Rating was 107.2). All of this leads to the following conclusion, with the way the Bills are playing right now there does not seem to be any specific scheme, team, or player that is capable of stopping the Bills’ passing attack.
Against the Ravens the Bills will need to find a way to beat Press Man Coverage. With one of the most physically gifted set of DBs in the NFL, headlined by Marcus Peters and Marlon Humphrey, the Ravens are particularly adept at this scheme. Their top two corners have both earned All-Pro honors at least once in their career primarily due to their physicality, but it is their ball skills which put them over the top. In 164 combined games Peters and Humphrey have 42 INTs, 20 FF, 11 FR, and 9 Defensive TDs. With the growing expectation that the Bills will primarily run 10 personnel (1RB, 4WR) the Ravens will likely spend the majority of Saturday in their Nickel package meaning that Jimmy Smith will join the previously mentioned CBs on the field. This sets up likely man matchups of Peters on Diggs, Smith on Brown, Humphrey in the Slot covering Beasley, and one of the two safeties (Chuck Clark, DeShon Elliott) on Gabe Davis. In this alignment the Ravens would be forced to choose between blitzing the safety not covering Davis or having that player shade deep over the top to Diggs side of the field. At the end of the day this will be a game of 1-on-1 matchups with the winner determined by which side can consistently beat the other.
The Ravens’ Press Man is able to excel because of their skill in the secondary but where it becomes one of the most dangerous schemes in the NFL is their proficiency and consistency in rushing the passer. For the 3rd straight season the Ravens lead the NFL in Blitz %, this year blitzing 44.1% of the time (Dolphins are 2nd at 40.6%). This facilitated an environment where the Ravens were able to pressure opposing QBs on 24.0% of their drop backs (NFL-11) and sack those QBs 39 times (NFL-14). The Press Man and Pass Rush work in concert by reducing the ability for offenses to complete quick short passes which then allows the pass rush more time to disrupt the QB. The Ravens will send anywhere from 5-8 players at the QB with the players primarily running up field being Patrick Queen (MLB) and Matt Judon (OLB) but when forced into Nickel concepts the Ravens will not hesitate to send either safety. All of this allowed the 2019 Ravens to put constant pressure on Josh Allen during their game last season ultimately resulting in 5 sacks for a loss (6 total) with 4 of them occurring with 5+ blitzers (#1, #2, #3, #4). It is however important to note that the Buffalo Bills offense from 2019 looks absolutely nothing like they do in 2020, in fact it is remarkable how drastically different they truly look.
This matchup comes down to the Bills receivers being able to beat whichever DB is lined up in front of them. If the Bills can accomplish this, then it will allow Allen to get rid of the ball before the Ravens pass rush is able to get to him. If the reverse were to occur it will create an environment where multiple blindside forced fumbles and/or interceptions may occur which would be incredibly difficult for the Bills to recover from. While on paper this matchup may be extremely close the reality is that the Bills simply have to many weapons that excel at beating man coverage for the Ravens to consistently stop. Stefon Diggs is widely regarded as one of the best receivers against man coverage in the entire NFL while the quickness of Cole Beasley provides for the ability to continuously beat man coverage in the intermediate range. Couple this with the Ravens struggles in covering TEs and RBs while still considering that the Ravens will need to find a way to contend with Gabe Davis and John Brown and the Bills, surprisingly, have a massive advantage here.
EDGE: Bills 👏 👏 👏 👏
Bills’ Rushing Offense vs. Ravens’ Rushing Defense
With Zack Moss going down with a season ending injury Wildcard weekend most Bills’ fans have spent this week wondering who RB2 will be behind Devin Singletary. Up until Thursday afternoon it was very clearly a three-horse race between T.J. Yeldon, Antonio Williams, and Devonta Freeman but via a statement from Sean McDermott we now know the winner of that race. T.J. Yeldon will suit up on Saturday night and be the RB2 behind Devin Singletary. McDermott also did make it very clear that this did not preclude the Bills from activating Antonio Williams for the Ravens game. Regardless of if it is one or two backs behind Singletary we can say with a fair degree of certainty that he will be the Bellcow back moving forward for Buffalo, meaning you can expect him to see north of 75% of the offensive snaps. One concern with that is in games where Singletary has exceeded 60% of offensive snaps (6) in 2020 he has a Y/A of 3.6 and in all other games he has a Y/A of 5.1. Let me make this abundantly clear, and see all of my previous posts for proof, I believe that the majority of the issues running the ball in 2020 are due to the blocking up front and not the RBs carrying the ball however, this stark contrast in Y/A should be a concern moving forward for a Bills’ team who at times will need to show they can move the ball on the ground if they want to continue winning football games.
This section now lends itself to a breakdown of the backups to Singletary on Saturday, one we know, and one is a maybe. With that in mind we start with T.J. Yeldon who has demonstrated the ability to be a competent runner of the football throughout his career with an acceptable 4.1 Y/A. Yeldon possesses exceptional agility for a player that is 6’1” 225lb and at times in his career has been one of the more dangerous receiving options in the NFL coming out of the backfield. The main knock Bills’ fans have on Yeldon is his fumbling where he has lost the ball 7 times on 677 career touches (1 per 97), for context Singletary has 5 on 374 (1 per 75). Next to discuss is the new darling of Bills Mafia, undrafted rookie Antonio Williams. One of the bigger unknowns on the Bills’ roster, Williams busted onto the scene against Miami with 83 all-purpose yards on 13 touches for 2 TDs in just one half. Out of UNC the 5’11” 215lb RB, who looks and plays much bigger, possesses exceptional lateral quickness and does not shy away from contact making him a dangerous player once he gets to the second level. Also, while it is highly improbable, we see him Saturday, I would be remised to not mention the signing of 2-time Pro Bowler Devonta Freeman who just a few years back was considered one of the best RBs in the game. Freeman suffered a groin injury in 2018 which required surgery which has since deprived him of some of the quickness that made him one of the biggest home run threats in the league. Still, Freeman provides a veteran presence with gas left in the tank, at just 28, he could be an integral part of the Bills’ Playoff push. All these players may play a factor if the Bills continue to advance in the playoffs, but Bills Mafia should fully expect T.J. Yeldon to do so on Saturday night.
If and when the Bills do run the ball, they will be doing so against a team which ranks 26th in the NFL (The Bills rank 24th) in Y/A against at 4.6. The Ravens also rank 27th in both 20+ A (1 per 32) and 40+ A (1 per 127) which is indicative of their blitz dependent defense. When the Ravens defense aligns with the proper gap they typically bring the ball carrier down in the backfield as the team has combined for 71 TFLs but when they miss ball carriers tend to pick up chunk yardage leaving their secondary to clean up free runners. This of course assumes the ball carrier can bypass the Ravens’ 3-4 alignment which is championed by one of the deeper DLs in all of football. On the right side is, long time Broncos DE, Derek Wolfe who typically lines up somewhere from the B to C gap and is one of the better run stuffers at the position. In the middle is the behemoth known as Brandon Williams who specializes as a NT, a dying position in the NFL that Williams still excels at. Lastly left of Williams is Calais Campbell who while listed as a DE plays more like a DT because of the blitz packages which the Ravens use. Campbell may be 34 and towards the end of his career but this exceptionally physical and athletic lineman will threaten Bills LG Ike Boettger all night.
The last group of players to cover for the Ravens is one of the most athletically gifted groups in the entire NFL, the Ravens LBs. Strength, Speed, Quickness, you name it, the 6 primary LBs on this team have it all. They are headlined by 21-year-old MLB Patrick Queen who ran a blazing 4.5 at the rookie combine in 2020. About as promising as they come Queen lead the Ravens in Tackles and TFLs and will challenge Josh Allen on any QB Draws the Bills may attempt. Next to him is either Pass Rush specialist Matt Judon or Pass Coverage specialist Tyus Bowser. Judon earned his second straight Pro Bowl selection because of his propensity to pressure the QB with his 4th straight season of 6+ sacks from the OLB position. Bowser, not nearly the pass rusher Judon is, instead has 3 INTs this season and an astounding 42.2 passer rating against (On just 15 targets). There are other players of note like ILB L.J. Fort, long time vet Pernell McPhee, or even the highly sought after Yannick Ngakoue but all you really need to know is that regardless of pass or run this unit has the ability to get into the backfield or chase down players that get outside of it.
EDGE: Ravens 👏 👏
Bills’ Passing Defense vs. Ravens’ Passing Offense
Against the Colts the Bills’ struggled at times against the pass with the most damage coming from the Colts’ TEs and the 6’4” rookie WR Michael Pittman. In isolation Phillip Rivers 300+ pass yard day implies that the secondary struggled covering their responsibilities, in reality the issue lay elsewhere. Rivers finished the 2020 season with a Time-to-Throw of just 2.52s (NFL-6) which he continued into the playoffs making it difficult for the Bills to get any pressure on the Indy QB. In fact, it was so difficult that the Bills had only 1 QB hit the entire game. This is the same team that in their last 6 games, post their Bye Week, was averaging 5.5 QB Hits per game. With the Bills running the Palms Scheme they are highly dependent on either pressure or extended Time-to-Throw in order to get into their secondary transitions, neither of those happened on Saturday which is why the Colts were so successful through the air.
Against the Ravens the Bills should be able to get more players in the vicinity of Lamar Jackson than they did Rivers. Of the 41 players with more than 128 pass attempts in 2020 Lamar ranked 38th in Time-To-Throw holding onto the ball for an average of 2.98 seconds. This was a primary reason that Lamar was sacked 29 times (NFL-13) and fumbled the ball 10 times. Obviously, the challenge here is that while teams can occasionally get pressure on Lamar, and even bring him down, the counter of his rushing ability poses a bigger threat (More on that in the rushing section). Credit is still due to Lamar and his OL who lost 2019 All-Pro LT Ronnie Stanley to an ankle injury just 6 games into the season and had to flip their RT, Orlando Brown Jr., over to LT and plug and play from there. While the main threat of Lamar is undoubtedly his legs, he did finish 2020 with 2757 passing yards, 26 Passing TDs, and just 9 INTs by utilizing his receiving weapons to the best of their abilities.
At receiver the Ravens don’t have one imposing weapon, but they do have a slew of good options. First and foremost of these options is 2019 1st round draft pick Marquise “Hollywood” Brown who some tried to drop the “Bust” tag on in the middle of the season after he had a 4-game stretch where he caught just 6 balls for 55 yards and 1 TD. In opposition to that ideal try taking those 4 games out of the season and then pacing it to 16 games, when doing that Browns’ season would be 65 catches for 892 yards and 9 TDs, a solid season for any NFL player. He also answered the bell Wildcard weekend raking in 7 catches for 109 yards against a stout Tennessee secondary. Outside of him the only other receivers of note are Willie Snead, a vet who built his name in New Orleans and is a solid option at WR, Devin Duvernay, a lightning quick 2020 3rd round draft pick, and Miles Boykin, their big bodied WR who has a knack for bodying opposing defenders. But by far their most dangerous weapon in the passing game is not a WR but instead their TE, one of the best in the league, Mark Andrews. Andrews is a walking Tonka Truck that is built the same way as Dawson Knox with better hands and a more complete set of receiving skills. This is Lamar’s check down option which is a primary reason he shared the team lead in receptions (58) and finished second in receiving yards (701) meaning he should be the Bills’ biggest concern in the air on Saturday night.
For the Bills to dominate this battle they will need to get pressure on Lamar while simultaneously maintaining contain to avoid him escaping the pocket. Assuming they can accomplish this, which is a tall order, they will need to avoid letting all 3 of the Ravens primary receivers beat them deep and put a big body, say Tremaine Edmunds, on Mark Andrews. RBs have yet to prove a consistent threat for the Ravens through the air in 2020 accounting for just 15.8% of targets and 18.3% of catches but are something to monitor Saturday night as the Bills try to contain Lamar while putting a spy in the middle to avoid a big run. Buffalo must win this matchup, and should, if they have any chance of winning this game. A takeaway or two through the air wouldn’t hurt either.
EDGE: Bills 👏 👏 👏
Bills’ Rushing Defense vs. Ravens’ Rushing Offense
The Bills had no answers against the Colts run game Wildcard weekend giving up the most rushing yards they have since the Cardinals game on November 15, 2020. Most of Buffalo’s success came when the Colts most powerful back, Jonathan Taylor, was running the ball holding him to just 3.7 Y/A but they had issues with the quicker players. Nyheim Hines only rushed the ball 6 times but accounted for 75 yards on carries of 4, 1, 29, 3, 33, and 5. This stat line should worry a Bills’ fan base that is hoping the Bills can beat a team stacked with shifty players and advance to their first AFC Championship Game since 1993.
The Ravens offense is built off an option scheme the likes of which the NFL has never seen. This offense can execute everything and anything on the ground and it all starts with QB Lamar Jackson. On option plays the QB will generally key off one defender and read which “option” said player chooses to defend. An example, a designed handoff to the right side of the line except all linemen wash down to the left and leave the defensive end unblocked. When this occurs it forces the defensive end to choose between scraping down to the RB taking the supposed handoff or to maintain contain on the QB (See example here). Lamar Jackson is an expert at reading such defenders and even in the rare event where he keeps the ball when he should hand it off, he has the athleticism to beat the defender to the edge. When handing the ball off he primarily will be handing it to Gus Edwards or J.K. Dobbins. Gus the Bus is bigger than Melvin Gordon but plays with the speed of Alvin Kamara which has allowed him to maintain a Y/A of 5.0+ in each of his first 3 seasons. J.K. Dobbins is the smaller, faster, and quicker of the two which makes for a good change of pace from Edwards. This three headed monster has created for the Ravens one of the best rushing attacks in NFL history which continues to defy the mantra that the NFL is just a passing league.
The second part of the Ravens that make them so deadly running the football is their offensive line. At the two guard spots are Bradley Bozeman (LG) and Ben Powers (RG) who each possess incredible strength which allows them control defenders at the time of the snap. Neither is exceptionally gifted at pulling or blocking in the open field but their strength couples nicely with the athleticism of the Ravens backfield. Between them is Center Patrick Mekari who took the starting Job from Matt Skura midway through the season after snapping issues forced him to the bench. Mekari is a big bruiser like his guards Bozeman and Powers which gives the Ravens just south of half a ton of Man in the middle of their line. At RT is veteran D.J. Fluker who was chosen 11th overall by the San Diego Chargers in 2013. Fluker now on his 4th team in 8 seasons is a competent RT crushing the scales at nearly 350lb but is dealing with a nagging knee injury which is something to monitor. Last is LT Orlando Brown who was laughed at for only putting up 14 on the bench press at his combine three years ago and has quieted the doubters by being named to his 2nd straight Pro Bowl. In all this is an above average OL built perfectly for a Lamar Jackson lead offense.
Buffalo will need to slow down the Ravens run game if they have any chance of winning on Saturday and this may be an odd thing to read, but the Bills defense actually lends itself to do just that. There has been discussion all week on Reddit, Twitter, and everywhere else of who will play the spy for the Bills against the Ravens and while they assuredly will occasionally spy, with Edmunds, Milano, or Poyer, the Bills’ Palms Scheme is actually proficient at slowing down mobile QBs. In this scheme the Bills will have multiple defenders zoned in the middle of the field, effectively playing a coverage spy on Lamar while also holding an advantage on the outside via their tradeoff concepts. In the event Lamar does break outside the pocket the Bills defense allows the boundary guarding CB to step forward to Lamar while the safety over the top takes the receiver. This is how the Bills defense is built and while an incredibly difficult scheme to run it is one the Bills have mastered. Don’t take this description of the Bills’ defense to say they will nullify Lamar Jackson but realize that the Bills have the tools to somewhat contain him, that is assuming they play a perfect game.
EDGE: Ravens 👏 👏 👏 👏
Bills’ Special Teams vs. Ravens’ Special Teams
Throughout 2020 the Bills’ average starting field position was their own 30.7-yard line (NFL-6). Against the Colts their average starting field position was their own 15.4-yard line. The Bills would obviously go on to win this game, but field position has proved to be an indicator of success in 2020 as each team finishing within the Top-8 made the playoffs. This leads to a defense of one of the Bills most polarizing players, Andre Roberts, who has been integral to the Bills’ success in this measure and the insinuation that he was a major contributing factor in the Bills’ field position issues Wildcard weekend is not backed up by any tangible evidence. In the first half of the Colts’ game the Bills’ average starting field position was the 7.8-yard line primarily because of an exceptional Colts’ ST unit and the bend, don’t break, style of the Bills’ defense. How did each of the Colts’ first 6 drives end? Punt downed at the Bills’ 3, Magical kickoff dies on the Bills’ 15, Punt fair catch at the Bills’ 11, Kickoff returned by Roberts’ to the 12 with a 6 yard penalty bringing it back to the Bills’ 6, Colt’s Turnover on Downs at the Bills’ 4, Colts kneel before halftime. For the Bills’ this game was an aberration, and one I have confidence they will clean up against the Ravens, mainly because I have confidence in Andre Roberts.
Outside of the return game the Special Teams group for Buffalo continues to be one of the best in the NFL. Corey Bojorquez rightfully received a vote to the All-Pro team, and it could be argued he deserved more. Bojo punted 4 times Wildcard Weekend averaging 47.0 Y/P with a Net Y/P of 43.5. These numbers would have been significantly higher had he not purposely drilled in I20 punt which only required a 29-yard kick. At kicker is another player who arguably deserved some All-Pro consideration, rookie Tyler Bass. This kid has been on complete fire the past 10 weeks going 42/43 on XPs and 18/19 on FGs with his only miss coming from 61 yards out. I was personally skeptical on Bass coming into the season, but my goodness, this kid is a stud. There is one more player on the Bills’ Special Teams that got an All-Pro vote, Tyler Matakevich. A guru at the position the man nicknamed “Dirty Red” is around the ball carrier on every kick and tossing people around on every return. Bills’ fans know more than most that Special Teams players can have a huge impact on a team and the Bills’ have a ton of great ones.
The Ravens also have one of the better Special Teams units in the NFL. For most of the season Devin Duvernay handled KR while James Proche took care of PR however, in recent weeks Duvernay has taken control of both. Averaging 11.5 Y/PR and 27.5 Y/KR, with a 93-yard return for a TD, Duvernay is a dynamic rookie with open field speed that few can match. Just like the Colts game this will likely effect the Bills’ short kick strategy meaning a lot of touchbacks when the Bills kick off. Punting for the Ravens is the 38-year old veteran Sam Koch who the Ravens have under contract until he is 40. Koch had his lowest Y/P (44.5) in a decade but finished 8th in the NFL with a Net Y/P of 42.8, a difference of just 1.7. Koch rarely allows players to return the ball and when they do, they are averaging just 4.8 Y/R. Last is the best to ever do it, Kicker Justin Tucker. Tucker has a 90.7 FG% in the regular season throughout his career with a career long of 61. As automatic as they come if you see Tucker on the field there is basically no tradition Bills’ fans can do that would make him miss.
EDGE: Bills 👏
Why We Will Lose
The Ravens have steadily improved the entire season and are peaking at the perfect time. Improving their odds of advancing is that the Ravens’ strengths matchup well against the Bills’ weaknesses. On defense the Ravens excel against the pass and have been able to put pressure on every QB they have played in 2020. That pressure should be extra concerning for a Bills’ team that has seen their star QB struggle at holding onto the football, now realize that the Ravens had a combined 25 forced fumbles in the regular season and start panicking. In reality the Ravens only weakness on defense is against the run which is something that they shouldn’t particularly care about when playing a Bills team who has struggled running the ball and should find a more difficult go of things after losing their RB2.
On offense the Ravens continue to be one of the best running teams in history. Whether it be Gus Edwards, J.K. Dobbins, or Lamar Jackson doesn’t matter because whoever has the ball will be able to effectively move it on the ground. This means consistent yardage with the occasional big run sprinkled in. That continuous success ultimately will keep the ball out of the hands of Buffalo’s offense while putting up points for Baltimore which is a typical strategy against a Bills team that has struggled against the run in 2020. Making matters worse is the Bills’ can’t just bail out to stop the run because if they did attempt this Lamar Jackson, the 2019 MVP, has shown the ability to make big plays through the air and will do so against this Bills’ team. The Ravens offense is built to beat a team like Buffalo, as is their defense, which is a recipe for a Baltimore victory.
Why We Will Win
The 2019 Bills lost to the Ravens 24-17. The 2020 Bills are a significantly improved version of that team with an MVP caliber QB. The Bills offense had no answer for the Ravens pressure last season which is a primary reason they went out and got a receiver that could specifically help with handling that scheme. That receiver is your first team All-Pro WR, Stefon Diggs, who has dominated every single player that has tried to guard him this season. You factor him in with Buffalo’s other 3 options at the position and the Bills suddenly have the ability to put up points against a Ravens’ defense that is one of the best in the NFL.
On defense the Bills may not have had the same success in 2020 that they did in 2019 but they have continually improved all season long. This game comes down to the Bills’ ability to contain Lamar Jackson and a healthy Matt Milano makes that slightly easier. Dark horse candidate to have big game is A.J. Epenesa who the Bills coaching staff has surely coached up to not do to much and instead do his 1/11th. And that is just what every single Bills’ player must do, their 1/11th, do that and you won’t stop Lamar Jackson, but you can reduce the damage he inflicts. If Buffalo accomplishes that your Bills will be heading to their first AFC Championship game in nearly 30 years.
Prediction: Bills 27 – Ravens 24
This is going to be a close game whichever way you slice it. On paper the Ravens seem to have the matchups but in reality, the Bills seem to have the ability to win them. Because this will be so close this game likely comes down to which team makes fewer mistakes, inclusive of turnovers. With the way the Bills are playing right now you must trust Josh Allen more than Lamar Jackson to hold onto the ball. At the end of the night though this will be a battle of heavyweights with the last one standing being one game away from Super Bowl Sunday.

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Rams fan here

I hope you guys keep this same energy.

Biggest Over and Underperformers of the 2020 NFL Season

Overperformer: Miami Dolphins (O/U 6 wins, actual 10-5)

The Dolphins are the story of the season, having essentially put a rebuild in motion in record time. Miami, which was projected to go winless just last season, finished its 2019 campaign strong by denying New England a first round bye, took a quarterback in Tua, then handed him the reins in Week 8. Flores's no name defense is one of the top units in the league, with Xavien Howard leading the league in interceptions, and they control their own playoff destiny -- Win at Buffalo and they're in. It's a lot earlier than anyone expected them to be in contention, even if they have the lowest ceiling of the AFC's five ten-win teams entering Week 17.

Underperformer: Dallas Cowboys (O/U 9.5 wins, actual 6-9)

You can't totally blame Dallas for their woes given Dak Prescott's season-ending injury. The team has taken its sweet time finding its groove under Andy Dalton, looking totally lost without Dak putting up record numbers on offense in the first several weeks. Mike McCarthy has also made some puzzling decisions, such as the fake punt against Washington where a receiver ran twenty yards behind the line of scrimmage on a 4th and long deep within their own territory. Despite all that, they still have a chance to win a historically terrible NFC East with a win vs the Giants and a Philadelphia win against a quarterback-challenged Washington Football Team.

Overperformer: Justin Herbert (Chargers O/U 7.5 wins, actual 6-9)

Don't get me wrong. The Chargers' season is terrible and Anthony Lynn deserves to be fired. But Herbert was been the biggest surprise of the 2020 NFL draft, being third off the board, and he is the reason this team has six wins. He was outplaying first overall pick Joe Burrow even before the latter's season-ending injury, passing Andrew Luck's total touchdown record, and looks damn comfortable doing it. He was thrown right into the fire, without first team reps in Week 2, and took the defending champion Chiefs to overtime. Outside of a 45-0 dismantling by the Patriots on special teams, Herbert and his Chargers have only lost one game by more than 1 score. Denver and Las Vegas better watch out - there are two incredible signal callers in the AFC West now.

Underperformer: New England Patriots (O/U 9.5 wins, actual 6-9)

New England lost its star quarterback of twenty years this season and it looked like its offense regressed by forty. Former MVP Cam Newton has twice as many picks as he does passing touchdowns and he only has ten interceptions. It's not unusual to tune in to a Patriots game and see a statline of less than 75 yards passing. It's a testament that Bill Belichick has dragged this roster to a 6-9 record, but the Patriots' reign of terror in the AFC East - 19 consecutive winning seasons, 11 consecutive division titles, 8 consecutive AFC championship appearances - is over, and a 38-9 pantsing by Josh Allen and crew on Monday confirmed it.

Overperformer: The Texans' draft picks (Houston O/U 8 wins, actual 4-11)

The Dolphins are in playoff contention and may walk into the off-season with the third overall pick in the NFL draft. How? Bill O'Brien, that's how. The former Texan dictator sent Miami two first round picks for the rights to sign Laremy Tunsil to a back-breaking deal, before he was fired after starting 0-4. Houston is 4-11, worse than all of the NFC East, JJ Watt is ripping into his teammates for not playing hard enough, and unlike every other team, their fans have no high draft picks for consolation. Thanks BoB.

Underperformer: Drew Lock (Denver O/U 7.5 wins, actual 5-10)

Lock had much hype going into the off-season by going 4-1 as a starter on a team that finished 7-9 last year, but he hasn't proven that he is the QB1 Elway is looking for. Yes, Denver had that terrible game where a practice squad WR started at QB, and Brett Rypien did come in relief of Lock early in the season, but in a division where Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert are some of the league's best signal callers, and Derek Carr is a plenty serviceable quarterback, there isn't much hope this Denver offense can come anywhere close to the heights it reached with Manning under center.

Overperformer: Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay O/U 9 wins, actual 12-3)

Aaron Rodgers is back in MVP form and the Packers are looking like Super Bowl favorites. Rodgers rediscovered the fun in football during the off-season, one in which his front office traded up to select his potential replacement. He has 44 touchdowns to just 5 picks, and Green Bay looks to be in position to make sure the road to the Super Bowl in the NFC will run through snowy Lambeau Field. And why is that so important? In a crucial test of their defense against Tennessee, who have a snowplow named Derrick Henry at running back, the Packers dismantled the Titans at home, holding the league's previously top ranked offense to 14 points, all while Rodgers locked up his case for league MVP by throwing for four touchdowns.

Underperformer: Bruce Arians (Tampa O/U 9.5 wins, actual 10-5)

Even if the Bucs lose to the Falcons this week, Bruce Arians and Tom Brady will still surpass their betting odds and return this franchise to the postseason for the first time since 2007. But Arians and Brady have constantly squabbled over the course of the season, and it's clear Arians is no Belichick. The Tampa OL cannot give the 43 year old Brady the time he needs to execute all the dropbacks in Arians's vertical scheme, and it's limited this Buccaneers offense against blitz heavy teams like the Saints and Giants. When it's working, it's beautiful, like this week's 47-7 spanking of the Lions, but Arians needs to adjust his game plan against better teams, as proven in back to back losses against the Rams and Chiefs.

Overperformer: Kyle Shanahan (SF O/U 10.5, actual 6-9)

The Niners are out of the playoffs following a Super Bowl run. How is Shanahan overperforming? He has his squad competing despite a historical bout of injury luck, losing QB Jimmy Garoppolo, D Linemen Nick Bosa and Solomon Thomas to season ending injuries, and RB Raheem Mostert and TE George Kittle were out significant playing time throughout the season. On top of that, COVID regulations made the Niners homeless, sending them to Arizona to close the regular season. But the Niners are competitive week in and week out, having embarrassed Kyler Murray and the Cardinals at their own home despite Robbie Gould missing three field goals.

Underperformer: Jared Goff (Rams O/U 8.5 wins, actual 9-6)

The Rams' running game is having a rebound year after cutting Todd Gurley, with breakout stars Cam Akers and Darrell Henderson. Sean McVay's new D coordinator has the Rams defense rolling as a top 10 unit. But Jared Goff has now lost two straight, leads the league in turnovers since the 2019 season, and they would probably be out of the playoffs if they hadn't been scheduled to play the NFC East this year and swept them. Goff looked especially poor in a 23-20 loss to the previously winless Jets, and actual human beings are now debating whether John Wolford, a man without any NFL starts to his name and is the backup on the depth chart for a reason, might be the better quarterback anyway after Goff broke his thumb in a demoralizing loss to the Seahawks that threatens to knock them out of the postseason entirely.

Overperformer: Josh Allen (Buffalo O/U 9 wins, actual 12-3)

The Bills are division champions for the first time in 25 years, and Allen has emerged as a dark horse MVP candidate in his third year. He has legitimately matured as a signal caller, having been drafted with all the talent in the world locked behind some raw mechanics. Credit to the Buffalo staff, who have managed to perform the rare feat of fixing a quarterback's accuracy longer after most deemed feasible, and have surrounded him with the weapons he needs to succeed. Stefon Diggs was a plug-and-play fit into OC Brian Daboll's offense, while Cole Beasley is quietly having a monster year. If they can give him a true running game, this Buffalo team will be an AFC playoff contender for years to come.

Underperformer: Adam Gase (Jets O/U 6.5 wins, actual 2-13)

Adam Gase has been bailed out from being remembered as part of an exclusive group of coaches who led a winless campaign, but he remains a terrible head coach who no team should ever want. The Jets squad he fielded had Sam Darnold regressing in his third year, and he steadfastly refused to make adjustments to make his team's life easier. And he had the audacity to make his fans suffer thirteen straight losses without even giving them the number one overall pick, which would have gifted them one of the most talented quarterbacks to ever come out of college.

Overperformer: Cleveland Browns (O/U 8.5 wins, actual 10-5)

While the Browns have technically not clinched a playoff berth yet in a historically deep AFC wild card scramble, Kevin Stefanski has his Browns rolling and playing spectacular ball, including in a game-of-the-year candidate 47-42 loss at Baltimore, and they are in control of their own playoff destiny. Their loss to the Jets last week was demoralizing, but Baker Mayfield also had no receivers after they were ruled out because of contract tracing protocols. This weekend, the Browns are in a win-and-in scenario against a Steelers team with nothing to play for, so barring another COVID-related debacle or a very Browns-esque collapse, they are playoff-bound for the first time since 2002.

Underperformer: Nick Foles (Chicago O/U 8 wins, actual 8-7)

Chicago remains in control of their playoff destiny with a win-and-in scenario at Soldier Field this weekend, but it's tough to argue Nick Foles hasn't underperformed this season. He was brought in to light a fire under Trubisky's bum, which, while it has certainly happened the last few weeks and has brought rumors of a contract extension for the latter, might also have been come from Mitch playing against some terrible defenses. More concerningly for Foles, he was named starter and led the Bears to the cusp of playoff elimination after losing six straight amidst a 5-1 start, playing such poor ball that head coach Matt Nagy surrendered playcalling duties to his offensive coordinator. He twice threw for no touchdowns in a six-week span before he lost his job to Trubisky after an injury.

NFL Power Rankings heading into the final three weeks of the 2020 season:

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As crazy as this sounds, we are only three weeks away from the NFL playoffs and the picture is starting to manifest itself. In this breakdown I’m ranking all 32 teams and I use different tiers to describe how I feel about them. While there are plenty of statistics to support the cases I want to make for them, I tried to limit those to a smaller degree, because at this point of the season it’s all about what I have learned from studying them every week and what my eyes tell me.
Here we go:

Top-tier:

These are the four truly complete teams. You can find concerns if you nit-pick, but I don’t think there is an obvious weakness for any of them at this stage. The top three arguably have the three best quarterbacks in the NFL, while the other two have elite offensive play-callers and top five defenses. Football is all about matchups, so they could have a bad draw, but in general I think they are all winning at least one playoff game and have a legitimate shot to go the distance.

1. Kansas City Chiefs (12-1)
You can find those little flaws if you are looking for them, but to me the Chiefs are still clearly the number one team in the league. They can lack some urgency at times and we have seen them let teams hang around for multiple weeks now, with no multiple-score wins since their week ten bye. However, even when they are down in games, you know at some point they will turn it on and make a run, like scoring 30 straight in 18 minutes last week at Miami. And if you give Patrick Mahomes the ball at the end of the game, whether you’re up or down, they will finish the job. Kansas City still number one in point differential for the season (+9.4) and until last week they were tied with Pittsburgh for number one in turnover margin (now +8). I think there’s about two teams in each conference that could make for exciting matchups against them, but I don’t think anybody is beating the Chiefs on a neutral field – and the playoffs will probably go through Arrowhead.

2. Green Bay Packers (10-3)
Aaron Rodgers is my choice MVP right now. He has been absolutely phenomenal, with only one blemish to his record and that was the only time the Packers really didn’t show up, back in week six at Tampa Bay. The chemistry between Rodgers and Davante Adams is unbelievable, but that running back duo is phenomenal as well and the offensive line has been one of the most consistent ones in all of football. Plus, Matt LaFleur has turned himself into one of the top offensive play-callers in the game. Defensively, my one big issue was their interior front, which has been vulnerable to the run game, and that’s the one area you can still question, but since Dalvin Cook had that monster game against them, they have held opponents to under 100 yards rushing on average over these past six weeks. You can argue that the Saints are a little more complete in terms of NFC opponents, but the difference in quarterback play is substantial and they are becoming a better all-around squad.

3. Buffalo Bills (10-3)
Where are the people who told me Josh Allen will absolutely not be an MVP candidate at the end of the season? After Mahomes and Rodgers there is no quarterback who you can tell me has clearly been better than him. While the run game hasn’t been very consistent, I like the combination of Moss & Singletary, while Allen is a major factor in that area as well, and Brian Daboll understands when he is in matchups where he can utilize it. Their defense has really come along as well, after they had some issues early on – especially defending the run, holding opponents to just 18.7 points since their bye three weeks ago – and I believe that has something to do with Sean McDermott getting more involved in the defensive game-planning. They do a tremendous job of taking away staples of the opposing team’s passing game and over this three-game stretch since their bye they have given up just under 70 yards rushing on average.

4. New Orleans Saints (10-3)
This is actually the one team with a real question mark potentially, because we just don’t know for sure where Drew Brees is in his recovery and he hasn’t been great this season either way. However, assuming he is fine for their playoff run and they can win at least one more game to hold on to the division title, they are a very complete team that wins at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. Sean Peyton is as good an offensive game-designer and team motivator as we have in the league and while that loss in Philadelphia last Sunday is obviously on our minds, let’s not forget that they had won nine straight before that. Now, you can argue that they have faced some clearly inferior teams, but they have won close and they have blown teams out. Since their week six bye, this past Sunday was their first time of not reaching 100 rushing yards (over 150 on average), while their defense has been phenomenal. What it really comes down to is that until their trip to Philly, their quarterbacks had not been sacked more than the opposing team’s since their early bye and they were recording 2.5 more sacks on a weekly basis. However, they are still the most penalized team in the league (843 yards)

Contenders:

These are all very good teams that have shown the ability to beat anybody in this tier or the one above it, but I don’t quite put them on that same elite level as the top four, because there is one clear weakness with them. Whether it may be a specific part like the pass-rush or skill-position talent, not having a schematic advantage in most weeks (at least on one side of the ball) or even team chemistry.

5. Los Angeles Rams (9-4)
The only way you can make this team look bad is if you can mostly take away the run game, the boots and screens that mask Jared Goff, because we have seen that if you force him to be a drop-back passer and read the field, there are some issues. But just go back two weeks ago, when they played in Arizona – Sean McVay finds ways to move the pocket and he has become more diverse this season with his run schemes, rather than being a zone-only run team. The Rams have two of the most underrated receivers in the league, I like how they have used much more 12 personnel this season and making rookie Cam Akers their featured back is already paying big dividends. The star of the show however has been the defense, holding opponents to a league-low 4.6 yards per play and just 31 plays of 20+ yards. They have the best defensive lineman and the top corner in all of football, but it really has been the lesser-known commodities that have made the difference for them. Darious Williams as a phenomenal across Jalen Ramsey, rookie Jordan Fuller is a ball magnet and former first-round pick Leonard Floyd is turning his career around in L.A.

6. Seattle Seahawks (9-4)
The Russell Wilson MVP run has completely disappeared when you look at the Vegas odds, but he is still having an excellent season, as he is on pace to complete 70 percent of his passes for the first time in his career and he has already reached a personal best 36 passing TDs. We have seen the turnovers ramp up and Seattle’s four losses have come in the games he has given it away multiple times, because they didn’t have much room for error because of their defense. The reason I have them this high is because they have seen more balance from them offensively, with an average of 124.6 rushing yards since their week six bye, and their defense has really made some strides. I know the two New York teams are in there, but since they got lit up by Josh Allen back in week nine, they have held opponents to just 16.2 points, without those major mess-ups and coming together as a unit. They are top ten in sacks (36) and make their opponents one-dimensional, holding them to just 3.9 yards per carry.

7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-5)
When I was referencing team chemistry in the intro for this tier, this is the squad that primarily made me mention it. Tampa Bay beat the Panthers and Raiders by over 20 points since then, but most of that came in the fourth quarter until which those games had been very pretty competitive, so their last truly complete performance came against the Packers all the way back in week six. They have questions about their offensive identity (no matter how much Bruce Arians is puffing his chest out after last week’s win), they have gone away from the run game in their losses and when they go really shotgun-heavy, their O-line has not looked the same in those one-on-ones. Their defense has shown moments of dominance, with a very dangerous pass-rush (second-highest pressure percentage at 27.8%) and two linebackers that can really fly around, but their corners have gotten torched at times and the really good offensive play-callers have been able to take advantage of some of the tendencies they have shown.

8. Baltimore Ravens (8-5)
So many people said the Ravens were dead three weeks ago – they had the biggest COVID outbreak in the league, Lamar Jackson was getting criticized by the media and the defense was getting banged up. Now all of a sudden they are on track for a Wildcard spot, if they can just win out with a pretty soft schedule ahead and all they need is for one of the three other contenders in the AFC to lose at least one game. Things have not come as easy for Lamar as they did in his MVP season, but the real issue for this time is a lack of play-making outside the numbers and not enough creativity in the drop-back pass game altogether. They have gotten back to punching people in the mouth with the run game and I’m glad to see them make rookie J.K. Dobbins their top option out of the backfield. We have seen defenses give them trouble when they crowd the middle of the field, but if they can evolve a little bit in their perimeter passing attack and open up the field, they can create a lot of problems. Baltimore’s defense just gave up 42 points, but when that group is healthy, they have the potential to be a top-five unit, with an elite secondary.

9, Pittsburgh Steelers (11-2)
This is obviously a lot lower than where they would have been two weeks ago, when they were still the only undefeated team in the league and other than Kansas City, you probably couldn’t have put anybody else above them. However, they have now lost back-to-back games – in fairness those two teams will likely go to the playoffs – and their offense has been highly concerning. Over the second half of their season, they have reached 100 rushing yards just once and average just 54.3 yards on the ground over that stretch, plus through the air everybody is all over the quick game and the Steelers rarely attack beyond the sticks, other than trying to draw some pass interference calls on shots outside the numbers. With that being said, while drops have been a major issue recently, they have a dynamic receiving corp and while they have lost a couple of pieces to injury, their defense is still number one in points allowed, sacks (45) and pressure percentage (33.5%) , takeaways (25) and therefore also turnover differential (+11).

10. Cleveland Browns (9-4)
If the Browns at least win two of their final three games – a two-week trip to face the New York teams and hosting the Steelers, who could have nothing to play for in the season finale – they are pretty much guaranteed to make the playoffs (as long as BAL, MIA, TEN & IND don’t all win out). I know they actually have a point differential of -20 on the season, but those 63 combined points they lost by in blowout fashion against the Ravens and Steelers early on are a major factor in that and if you look at their three matchups before this, they were actually winning big until opposing teams somehow added points late. Cleveland has the number three rushing offense (156.2 yards per game) with the premiere RB duo in the league, but they are still tied for fifth-most plays of 20+ yards (55) and Baker Mayfield arguably just played the two best games of his pro career these last couple of weeks. They can go 22 personnel and pound you with the run, but then also take play-action shots off it and then also create issues from empty sets. And until they had their number one corner Denzel Ward in the lineup, they were at least average in every meaningful statistical category, with a phenomenal D-line.

11. Tennessee Titans (9-4)
I brought this up in my week 14 recap – Derrick Henry has a chance to break the single-season rushing record, if he can average 191 yards on the ground over these last three games, which all feature bottom-five run defenses arguably (DET, GB & HOU). Of course Henry is the heartbeat of the Tennessee offense, but also big plays, as only five teams have recorded more plays of 20+ yards (53), despite also only five teams having thrown the ball less. No team is better at getting chunks off play-action, with A.J. Brown and Corey Davis routinely catching deep crossers and in-breaking routes behind the linebackers. And Ryan Tannehill is having an excellent season in general, while we have seen him execute at a really high level with little time on the clock and make things happen when they needed to put the ball in his hands. The Titans are tied with Green Bay for the fewest turnovers committed in the league at nine – and a third of those came against Cleveland, where they got steamrolled in the first half before ultimately cutting the lead to one touchdown. The defense is concerning part, with a league-low 14 sacks on the season and the highest third-down percentage allowed (52.2%), while they have had some bad performances from their special teams.

12. Indianapolis Colts (9-4)
The Colts surprisingly are just outside the top ten in scoring defense (23.0 points per game), but by far their worst performance came without their best defensive player DeForest Buckner against the Titans a couple of weeks ago, and they are outstanding in second halves, surrendering just 7.8 points on average. Their front-seven if phenomenal and they have guys in the secondary who can take away the ball, while having missed just 62 tackles all season long (second-fewest) and scored four touchdowns themselves (most). What I really like about the Colts is how much they improved in the run game, where they have gone from a surprisingly bad start to now have rookie Jonathan Taylor really becoming their workhorse, averaging 110 yards and six yards per carry over these last three games. And with Philip Rivers taking better care of the ball and delivering big throws on third downs, they have now had their best three-game scoring run (34.7) and they are tied for second in turnover differential on the season at +10. And only two teams have a better difference between their starting drives and the ones of their opponents at +5.

Fringe playoff teams:

None of these teams have a playoff spot secured and if my calculations are correct, only two of them control their own destiny, in terms of making the cut if they win out, regardless of what else happens around the league. And only two of them will ultimately make it most likely. None of these squads blow you away. They all have bad losses on their resume and there are multiple areas that has disappointed at times.

13. Miami Dolphins (8-5)
The Dolphins came a little short from pulling off a comeback against the Chiefs this past Sunday after KC had that big run, and that most likely takes them out of the race for the AFC East, but they still control their own playoff destiny as far as I can tell. The Miami defense has been incredible. They are either first or second in points allowed (18.8), takeaways (25) and third-down percentage (33.1). Their coaching staff does an excellent job of teaching and game-planning for specific matchups. Offensively, injuries have been a story for them pretty much all season long, while the switch to Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback has certainly been in character with the horizontal passing attack from OC Chan Gailey. The big issue for them is the lack of explosive plays – only the Bengals (32) have less than their 34 plays of 20+ yards. And while they do run the ball at an middle-of-the-pack rate, they are averaging a league-low 3.6 yards per carry. That’s why they can’t really control the pace of games but also not be as dynamic scoring to keep up with the high-flying offenses. Still, before their loss to Kansas City on Sunday, they had won seven of their last eight and they are sixth in point differential with +6.5

14. Arizona Cardinals (7-6)
This team is a little tough to figure out where to put. Everybody loved them when they were 6-3, but then then were a Hail Mary against Buffalo away from losing five straight and then they completely dominate the Giants, who were getting hyped up a week ago. In theory, they have one of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the league, they have shown the ability to run the ball effectively, I like some of the things Vance Joseph does schematically on defense and some of their young players on that side of that ball have really come in their own. Unfortunately, Kliff Kingsbury’s offense leaves me wanting to see more, with opposing teams being able to just man up and anticipate passing concepts, while their 13th-ranked scoring defense only looks as good on paper as they do because they have feasted in their matchup versus three NFC East teams and the Jets (10.5 PPG in those matchups). They control their own destiny and could be lucky if their one true remaining test comes against the Rams in week 17, when those guys have nothing to play for potentially, but if they make it, I’m worried about what happens when the really well-coached NFC teams can solely focus on them.

15. Washington Football Team (6-7)
Over their current four-game winning streak (second-longest active one to Kansas City), Washington leads all teams in point differential at +12.5 and the only teams that are actually close are the Saints and Seahawks, who had blowout wins over the QB-less Broncos and winless Jets respectively during that stretch. They have to hope that rookie RB Antonio Gibson can return without much of an issue from his turf toe, because the offense is really all about him and their one stud receiver Terry McLaurin. They are certainly limited in the pass game, with by far their best option at quarterback being somebody who couldn’t even walk properly at the start of the calendar year, who doesn’t really create out of structure anyway. At the same time, they just scored 23 points and won a game without an offensive touchdown this past Sunday. Their defensive line is absolutely loaded with first-round talent and they have no fear of attacking patterns and trying to take away easy yardage against the pass. That’s why they are tied for third-fewest yards allowed per play (5.0) and they are sixth in points allowed despite their bad start to the season (21.2).

16. New England Patriots (6-7)
These Patriots are holding on for dear life here. They are not very talented. Cam Newton has not looked the same since missing time with COVID early on in the season, with more than 180 passing yards just three times on the year, none of their receivers would be more than a WR3 on teams with average pass-catching groups and if we can agree that Miami wasn’t who they are now in the season-opener, the only good defense they have score over 20 points against all season was the Ravens – and they were really banged up coming into that matchup. They still have one of the top secondaries in the league and are incredibly well-coached of course on that side of the ball, but they lack beef on the defensive interior, which has them as a bottom-ten run defense, and they have suffered blowout losses to elite offensive play-callers like Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay. They are once again the least penalized team in the league (just 442 yards against) and they destroyed the Chargers 45-0 just two weeks ago, in large part because their special teams were so amazing and how much better their coaching was, but that’s not enough against great teams.

17. Las Vegas Raiders (7-6)
This might be surprising to some people, but the Raiders are the only team in the league to score on at least half of their offensive drives. We have seen them beat opposing teams up with the run game, with a couple of 200-yard performances already this season, but they have almost gone 2-0 in shootouts against the Chiefs and Derek Carr has had his best season since making a run at the MVP award several years ago. Unfortunately, their defense has really only had a couple of good games. They are one of only three units to allow 30 points per game – and the other two are the Cowboys and Jets. And they also allow opponents to convert exactly half of their third downs (tied for third-highest). In college football-fashion, they have a few quality wins on their resume over the Saints, Chiefs and Browns – but they have fallen off dramatically recently. Over the last three weeks they have now lost by 37 to the Falcons, 17 to the Colts and they needed a miracle touchdown (and a really bad defensive call) to beat the winless Jets.

18. Minnesota Vikings (6-7)
When you look at the numbers from Minnesota’s game against the Bucs, it almost doesn’t make sense that they lost by 12 points – ten first downs more and 18 minutes more time of possession. Their kicker Dan Bailey had a horrible showing, but special teams have been an issue all season long – only making a league-low two third of their FG attempts, untimely muffs and returns suffered. On paper the offense should be one of the best in the league, with a superstar running back, an outstanding receiver duo and Kirk Cousins capable of making big throws with the right pieces around him. Yet, if you take away the season-opener against Green Bay when most of it came in garbage time, they have only scored more than 30 points twice this season and their 22 giveaways are tied for fifth in the league. The defense has shown some improvement from their horrible 1-5 start, but they have nobody on the roster with more than 3.5 sacks at this point and their young corners have been taken advantage of routinely. I could see them win out potentially, but they still need some help to sneak into the playoffs.

Striving to reach .500:

While I believe about half of these teams have the potential to put together complete games and there is potential to good all-around, none of them have been able to actually do it for an extended stretch. For me one side of the ball has clearly held them back for most of the season and only one of them actually still has a chance to earn a winning record, while another one at best could finish a half game below .500 – but still somehow has an outside shot of winning their division.

19. San Francisco 49ers (5-8)
One of the biggest disappointments of this 2020 season has been the 49ers. And it’s not really about their players messing up or anything like that, they have just been unlucky. No other team has put more players on injured reserve than San Francisco and it happened to key pieces. As brilliant as Kyle Shanahan I believe is and as well as that defense has played for the most part, somebody has to deliver the ball in the passing game and at some points those injuries will catch up to you. Nick Mullens has been rough to watch ever since taking over as the starter. They have gone 1-4 over that stretch and they have turned the ball over more than three times per game. Now only the Broncos have turned the ball over more than the Niners (25) on the season. And defensively I know elite quarterbacks like Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers and Josh Allen carved them up, but when you look at the rest of the schedule, it was their offensive turnovers and their special teams in one matchup in particular that has set put their own guys in a bad position.

20. New York Giants (5-8)
Just a week ago it felt like EVERYBODY was jumping on the Giants bandwagon and it’s like everybody has gotten off even quicker. Daniel Jones could not move because of his hamstrings and the Cardinals were able to completely out for the run, while recording eight total sacks once they got Big Blue in obvious passing situations and turnovers setting Arizona up in the red-zone twice. New York still has a top-ten defense in my opinion, where they throw a lot of different looks at opponents and only the Rams have surrendered less plays of 20+ yards (39). Their offense is certainly more troubling to me, but unless Jalen Hurts looks like he did in his first career start going forward, Daniel Jones is the best quarterback in that division and until this past Sunday, the G-Men had gone for over 100 rushing yards in eight games and averaged 148.9 yards over that stretch. They are still the second-worst scoring offense in the league (18.3 points per game), but those numbers are heavily influenced by their 0-5 start. Joe Judge and his coaching staff have these guy on the right track and they have the season-sweep over Washington. So if they can win one more game than the Football Team over these final three weeks, they host a playoff game – but they have a tough finish ahead.

21. Philadelphia Eagles (4-8-1)
I think I would have originally had the Eagles five or six spots lower and in the tier below this one had I put out these rankings a week ago. So I’m glad I didn’t and waited to see what Jalen Hurts looked like in his first career start – and he was awesome. I didn’t understand the Saints’ defensive gameplan, but that team certainly had some juice with the switch under center, whether it’s the defense playing with their hair on fire or people like Alshon Jeffery even making big catches. Once again Philly has suffered a ton of injuries, especially on the O-line, but Hurts’ mobility can help out with that, if Miles Sanders has some space, he can be a dynamic player and all of a sudden Doug Pederson actually had a gameplan. Outside of their trip to Green Bay, the Eagles defense has been playing very well in recent weeks, with a hungry pass-rush and the back-seven aggressively coming upfield and punishing guys for touching the ball. At best, Philly can now finish 7-8-1, but as crazy as that sounds, if they win out, while Washington and the Giants at least lose one other game, the Eagles are your division champs. And what would be more NFC East or 2020 than that.

22. Denver Broncos (5-8)
This is another tricky one. The Broncos started their season 0-3 with really tough games against the Titans, Steelers and Buccaneers. Since then they have gone 5-5 and played some really good football at times – wins over New England and Miami, a crazy comeback against the Chargers and playing the Chiefs close, plus one of those losses came when they didn’t have an actual quarterback on the roster. However, they also got blown their doors blow off by the Chiefs the first time around, the Raiders and the Saints (in that QB-less matchup). The big theme for this squad has been turnovers. They have given the ball away a league-high 29 times and they have forced the second-fewest turnovers (11), which makes their differential of -18 eight worse than any other team in the league. When you don’t convert your third downs offensively (only 37.6%) and allow big plays on defense (53 plays of 20+ yards), that is a problem. However, Drew Lock just played his best game as a pro and he has a lot of young talent around him catching passes, while they have averaged 127 rushing yards a game since their 0-3 start. And the defense has been getting after opposing quarterbacks – 32 sacks since then as well.

23. Chicago Bears (6-7)
I don’t really like talking about the Bears anymore. When they started the season 5-1, I was among many to say they are not nearly as good as their record indicates – they lost six straight. When I put out my rankings of the top ten defenses about a month ago, I said they were the second-best unit in the league – they lay a complete egg and give up 41 points against the Packers and then pull a miracle in the wrong way to give away the Lions game and allow them to score 34. And then when I’m finally ready to fully write them off, they hold one of the hottest quarterbacks in football in Deshaun Watson to seven points and the offense finally wakes up in a get-right matchup against the Texans. I know they have faced poor defenses and he made some bad mistakes at Green Bay, but since Mitch Trubisky was inserted back into the lineup following their bye, they have averaged just over 30 points. And we know that defense can ball. When Akiem Hicks has been in the lineup, they have been elite or close to it in all areas. They could easily win at Minnesota and at Jacksonville and then we don’t know if the Packers have anything to play for when they come to Soldier Field in the season finale. So if that happens and Arizona just loses one game, they are most likely in the playoffs. Crazy.

24. Detroit Lions (5-8)
A 5-8 record is not horrible and if they don’t blow that big lead to Chicago in the season-opener, they are well alive in the hunt for the NFC’s seven seed, with a win over Arizona and a chance to tie season-series with Minnesota. However, they are just looking to finish the year on a high note and make this look like a more desirable head coaching job. There is just nothing that really impresses you about the football team. They are bottom four in run offense and defense – so their opponents can always control the pace of the game. They are tied for the third-most yards per play allowed (6.0) and they have forced the third-fewest takeaways (12) – so there’s a heavy imbalance in big plays made between their defense and the opposing offense. And they are losing all the crucial situations when you compare their percentages with the ones of their opponents – minus 5.2% on third downs, 4.2% on fourth downs and 6.8% in red-zone scoring. Matt Stafford and Matt Prater have had moments of brilliance late in games, but as a team they just brought it enough on a weekly basis.

Already out of it:

The teams in this group have all been eliminated from playoff contention and show multiple issues. A couple of them have top ten quarterbacks this season in my book and I wouldn’t say any of them can’t win with who they have under center, but all five of them field bottom-half defenses and a couple of them just don’t know how to manage and win game at a high rate.

25. Carolina Panthers (4-9)
This might be the best 4-9 team I have ever seen. Of course you can go back and look at times that have gotten hurt – and the Panthers have missed their best player in Christian McCaffrey – but in general they have been pretty healthy. Teddy Bridgewater has played the best football of his career under OC Joe Brady, they have a dangerous receiver trio, some of these young studs on defense have really shown up, like Brian Burns and Jeremy Chinn, and they have hung tough in pretty much every game all season long. They just haven’t been able to actually pull it off, with all but two of their nine losses being by one possession and those couple of matchups with the Bucs were competitive until the fourth quarter too. Matt Rhule has built a foundation in Carolina that will win him a lot of games sooner than rather and when you look at the rest of the NFC South, none of them have a long-term solution at quarterback and they will all face significant cap problems in the future. So bite the bullet here and maybe give it another year, because then this team is ready to take over that division.

26. Houston Texans (4-9)
Man, I feel so bad for Deshaun Watson. That guy is an elite quarterback and with the way Bill O’Brien and the entire organization have conducted business, they probably cost him a chance to go to a Super Bowl potentially during his rookie contract. Hopefully this season is as bad as it’s going to get, because he has been the only real bright spot. The two obvious problems with this team – they can’t run the ball and their defense has been absolutely atrocious. They only have two runs of 20+ yards all season long and if you take their quarterback out of it, they are averaging a miniscule 3.5 yards per carry (would be worst in the league). And their defense is the only one that ranks bottom three in average yards allowed per pass (7.9) and run (5.0), while they are also the only unit with single-digit takeaways (eight) – and six of those came against the Jaguars and Lions. The only two times they have allowed less than 20 points came against Jacksonville in one of their matchups and then at Cleveland in the rain, when the final score was 10-7 for the Browns. So because of that, only the Jets have less time of possession (27:10). When you look at their four wins on the season, it was all about Deshaun – and he almost got them one each over the top two teams in the AFC South, but he never touched the ball against the Titans and a bad snap from the opposing two-yard line cost them the Colts game.

27. Los Angeles Chargers (4-9)
I can’t remember the last time I’ve seen a team with worse coaching than this one. When it comes to a lack of adjustments being made, disgusting time management, the amount of big leads this time has surrendered and so many other things. It has just been a joke. And I feel bad for the players, because Justin Herbert is having a phenomenal rookie season, most likely setting new marks in all the major categories, Keenan Allen has been incredible and Joey Bosa has been terrorizing opposing backfields when healthy. Yet, the only reason they lost last week is because they faced another team that has no freaking idea of how to win a game late and Matt Ryan gifted them a chance to pull it off in the end. When you look at total yards, explosive plays all kinds of statistics, it almost makes no sense. The craziest number I can bring up for this team is that if you take out their embarrassing 45-0 debacle against the Patriots, they have scored just 1.5 less than their opponents – and they are 4-9. I’m so annoyed that Herbert’s rookie season will be kind of forgotten because of how bad the team was, but I just hope they put a competent coaching staff around him and they can finally break this curse they have been under as a franchise.

28. Atlanta Falcons (4-9)
I just talked about how the Falcons should have won that Chargers game last week – they had the ball twice in scoring range over the last four minutes and they blew it. Just like they did when they held a 15-point lead until five minutes left against the Cowboys in week two or when Todd Gurley fell into the end-zone when you were basically guaranteed a win if your kicker can just hit a 20-yard field goal at the end. Interim head coach Raheem Morris gave them some life in the middle of the season, but they disqualified themselves from any outside shot of somehow being in the playoff conversation with these last two losses, after they had a 43-6 blowout win over the Raiders. The defense has shown a lot of improvement since their 0-5 start, but the defense has not been able to get stops when they really needed it for the most part. And while the offense has a lot of firepower in theory, but Julio Jones has been banged up all season long, they are 25th in rushing offense and they have not scored enough points when they were put in those situations. Atlanta is one of only two teams in the league – to go along with the Jets – to not convert more than half of their red-zone trips into touchdowns.

29. Dallas Cowboys (4-9)
Don’t let their 30-7 win over the Bengals fool you – this is not a good team. The Cowboys were 2-7 coming out of their bye week and then when pulled off the upset over the Vikings, everybody was like “Could they still win the NFC East?”, which is more an indictment on that division than where they were as a team. They went on to get embarrassed (again) on Thanksgiving by Washington and then Baltimore ran for almost 300 yards on them over the following two weeks. They have allowed the most points all season long (400) and they have allowed four different teams to go for over 200 rushing yards this season. That doesn’t mix well with turning the ball over at the third-highest rate league-wide (24 total) and your defense allowing opponents to convert half of their third-down attempts. Andy Dalton has played fairly well when available, but Zeke has been a major disappointment, the O-line has been devastated with injuries and I think I have said enough about their defense.

Final tier in the comments!

If you enjoyed this breakdown, I would really appreciate if you could visit the original piece - https://halilsrealfootballtalk.com/2020/12/17/nfl-power-rankings-heading-into-the-final-three-weeks-of-the-2020-season/
And make sure to check out my detailed recap of every game from the NFL's week 14 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tra31Htw-Ps

You can find all my social media linked there as well!

[CBSSports-4k] Super Bowl 2021:Buccaneers vs Chiefs Free REddit

Reflection on the season and Super Bowl!

Official r/NFL Week 0 Power Rankings

It’s that time again, nfl. 32 representatives. 32 teams. 32 rankings. The 11th Annual NFL Official Power Rankings are back! Each team ranker creates their own unique power ranking from top to bottom. All lists are then combined into one and posted here, updated on a weekly basis. Thank you to the readers, discussion starters, and supporters. Here’s Week 0’s list, 24/32 reporting. Let the arguments begin!

#	Team	Record	Comment
1.	Chiefs	12-4	The Chiefs are reigning Super Bowl champions. The sentence still feels like a fever dream even now to most Chiefs fans, but it is the current reality. Patrick Mahomes, the demi-god of Kansas City, is back with a half a billion-dollar contract and is as hungry as ever for more championships. After an offseason of Brett Veach handing out millions of dollars in extensions, the Andy Reid led Chiefs are favorites to win the whole thing again in a Covid-19 filled season. Let the high flying year commence.
2.	Ravens	14-2	Ravens: Expectations are high, schedule is easy on paper, and aside from an unproven linebacker and WR corps the Ravens seem to have improved everywhere from last year. Most teams have, though, and sadly games aren't played on paper. Can Baltimore keep it up when after losing ET3 and Marshall Yanda? Will they crap the bed against the Browns early in the season again? How are the wide receivers? No idea, but this blurb is just here to serve as a welcome to the clusterfuck that is the first few weeks of the regular season.
3.	49ers	13-3	The Super Bowl Runner up 49ers enter the new year with few notable losses, hoping that roster stability will continue the team's recent success.
4.	Saints	13-3	Not since Nicholas Flamel has someone come as close to alchemy as Mickey Loomis. With one of the most consistent creative coaches in Sean Payton, if Brees holds it together for one more year New Orleans is on track to be as competitive as ever.
5.	Seahawks	11-5	Jadeveon wasn't here to stay, hopefully Jamal is. He'll be paired with Pete Carroll, heavily upgrading from his last coach pairing of Gase/Gregg Williams. Unlike his refusal to let Russell Wilson play a real first quarter of football, Pete is a proven defensive mind and Jamal has never had work ethic issues. It'll be tough to crab walk out of the bucket that is the NFC WEST.
6.	Packers	13-3	Another year in a West Coast offense could pay dividends for Rodgers, who woke up one morning in April to see Favre's reflection staring back at him. Love could be the long term answer for the Pack, who are already one of the most happily-spoiled QB teams in history. If not, LaFleur likely will be coaching somewhere warmer.
7.	Cowboys	8-8	The Cowboys overhauled their two greatest issues this off-season: Kicker and coaching staff. There were some key departures in guys like Robert Quinn, Byron Jones, and Fredbeard the Conqueror, but they at least have a plan that's good on paper to address all that. If it all works out, the sky's the limit.
8.	Buccaneers	7-9	This will either be yet another example of Arians' track record with first year quarterbacks, or another ring for Tompa Brady's Gauntlet. There isn't time for anything in between.
9.	Titans	9-7	The run to the AFC Championship game by the Titans was unexpected to most of the league and not reflective of where the team was to start the 2019-2020 season. After making the switch at QB to Tannehill a different Titans team emerged and finished the year with a 9-4 record after week 7. Going into 2020 the Titans have signed Tannehill and Henry to long term contracts, keeping the core offense together and made some high upside signings on defense with Clowney and Beasley to try and boost the defensive line pressure. The key, as it always is for the Titans, will be if the QB can stay healthy throughout the year. The Titans have not had 1 QB start all 16 games since 2011, when Matt Hasselbeck lead the Titans to a... 9-7 record.
10.	Vikings	10-6	The Vikings had a whirlwind of an offseason, headlined by trading away Stefon Diggs, trading for Yannick Ngakoue, promoting Gary Kubiak to offensive coordinator and selecting a record 15 players in the 2020 NFL draft. With seven 2020 pro bowlers on the roster, the Vikings have the top-end talent to make some noise in the playoffs, but to get there in the first place they'll need to overcome some massive holes in the trenches and all the question marks surrounding the callow cornerbacks and receivers.
11.	Bills	10-6	Without fans in the stands, Bills games will look and sound different than ever before. BillsMafia will still don their zubaz, they will still crack their Labatts, and many may still break their tables, but now from the comfort and (relative) safety of their homes. In Cheektowaga there will be driveway dizzy-bats. In Amherst fans will go through the flip-cup table they’ve erected on their lawns. And in the city proper, Bills fans will have their speakers ready to blast the Shout Song after a score, all in the hopes that Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills can deliver the city a much-needed championship. Will Allen take that final step forward and help carry this loaded roster to the promised land? Or will the Bills return to the ways of mediocrity? Either way, BillsMafia was born ready.
12.	Steelers	8-8	The Steelers enter the 2020 Beer Bug season looking down the barrel of a completely loaded Ravens team. The Black and Gold find themselves very much in the underdog's position. In a preaseason of unknowns and little evidence to go on, could Pittsburgh strike WR gold again with Chase Claypool? There's quite a bit of hype there and the Steelers need people to step up and take pressure off of Smith-Schuster.
13.	Patriots	12-4	Its a whole new world.
14.	Eagles	9-7	The Eagles entered the off-season needing to address both their secondary and receiving corp, both of which were at or near worst in the NFL last year. Major upgrades were made across both units, and the Eagles fanbase is hopeful this year won't be a repeat of last, especially with the NFC East in dismal shape. Everything is predicated on Carson Wentz now, who needs a healthy year to detract naysayers.
15.	Texans	10-6	BoB the GM continues to perplex. The Watson contract is great, and ties down the best QB the Texans have ever had for the foreseeable future. But, he traded our best WR for basically peanuts. There are all kinds of rumors swirling around about why this happened, but the end product is that the Texans are unequivocally worse off without Nuk. For all jokes about the GM/Head Coach/Imperator perpetuo of the Texans, the team is better than most give it credit for. Time will tell how big the Hopkins trade will impact the team.
16.	Rams	9-7	Over the offseason, the Rams lost Todd Gurley, Brandin Cooks, Aqib Talib, Dante Fowler, Cory Littleton, Clay Matthews, Greg Zuerlein, DC Wade Phillips, and ST John Fassel. They do have a shiny new stadium and amazing new logo, which should offset these losses. Super Bowl or bust. #hornsup
17.	Colts	7-9	If one can possibly compartmentalize, then 2020 would offer an optimistic outlook for Colts fans. A trade for one of the best players in the league and getting whatever's left in Rivers' tank signals a move of the proverbial chips to the pot. There are so many 'if's at this point, it would be fruitless to discuss them further. We'll take this week by week in what will surely be the most surreal NFL season of all.
18.	Falcons	7-9	The Falcons enter the season with a veteran loaded coaching staff, the oldest roster in the NFL, and one of the few teams without opt outs. If consistency means more in 2020's unique season, then Atlanta might have fallen backwards into the keys of success. With leadership at key positions across the board it's hard not to be hopeful.
19.	Cardinals	5-10-1	Excitement and expectations are higher than they've been in quite awhile for the Cardinals. Kyler Murray will be looking to make a leap after winning rookie of the year honors and has a lot more help this season after the team magically acquired DeAndre Hopkins and managed to dump David Johnson's terrible contract at the same time. They'll get an immediate test as they face the reigning NFC champions this weekend.
20.	Broncos	7-9	Uh, football? I think?
21.	Raiders	7-9	Raiders fans are always optimistic at this time of year, and we are ready to be hurt once again.
22.	Browns	6-10	NFL season sneaked up on us.
23.	Bears	8-8	Chicago looks to bounce back from an underwhelming team defensive performance that "only" ranked fifth by PPG in 2019. Their expectations are higher than ever, as the defense also has the job of playing so well that the general populace forgets what Trubisky is capable of.
24.	Chargers	5-11	Fresh off of their Hard Knocks appearance, the Chargers will feature a brand new offense with a promising rookie QB in the wings and a defense that looks to improve with new additions like Linval Joseph and CHJ. As they get set to take on Joe Burrow and the Bengals in Week 1, the biggest question looms large: How long will this season actually last? Will we actually get to answer any questions this year about the post-Rivers era Chargers?
25.	Lions	3-12-1	The Detroit Lions have made a science of keeping the emotional roller coaster chugging along. From the injury plagued 2019 season with Stafford missing half the season with an injury, and Kenny Golladay still leading the NFL in TD's... to signing AD and Stafford vowing for an MVP race. If the Lions can avoid injury, there's reason to believe in a playoff appearance and even a win. One thing is certain, the offense is going to be a force to be reckoned with.
26.	Dolphins	5-11	There's high hopes floating around the Dolphins as they enter year 2 of a multi-year rebuild. Will those hopes come tumbling down as they often do, or will Flores unleash Fitzmagic and show some improvement in a squad that vastly outperformed what people thought of them last year.
27.	Giants	4-12	It can be a slippery slope trying to emulate Bill Belichick. Rookie HC Joe Judge, though, seems to have taken command of this Giants team while still having fun and caring about the players. While nothing earns fan adoration quite like winning football games, most Giants fan would agree this year that seeing second-year passer Danny Dimes take strides forward is enough to get excited about. The G-Men face a tough schedule all year, but week 1 may prove to be especially daunting. The Steelers were a defensive monster in 2019 that dragged Mason Rudolph and Duck Hodges kicking and screaming to an 8-8 record. With Big Ben back at the helm, Monday night will prove to be a serious challenge for a Giants team with new faces on both sides of the ball.
28.	Jets	7-9	Sending Jamal Adams to Seattle is a big emotional blow for Jets fans, but the price can't be ignored and certainly puts the team in position to put young talent around Sam Darnold. As long as he can keep his tongue in his mouth, Darnold should have an opportunity to prove a lot about the Jets future in 2020.
29.	Panthers	5-11	The odds are stacked against Carolina, especially with first year NFL coach Matt Rhule coming from the NCAA. Stranger things have happened in the NFC South, and for better or for worse, starting QB Teddy Bridgewater could be the deciding factor.
30.	Bengals	2-14	The Bengals may start the season near the bottom of most power rankings, but where they finish will depend on how league ready Joe Burrow is. By most accounts he has been very sharp in practice, but without a proper pre-season we won't really know how ready he is until the games start. But for now, optimism is very high in Cincinnati.
31.	Washington FT	3-13	After a smooth and mostly quiet off-season with very little fuss or drama, The Red- I mean Football Team will finally take the field. With a new coach, Head Coach having named their starting quarterback, Quarterback and their number two draft choice, Defensive End we’re ready to see what Football Team looks like.
32.	Jaguars	6-10	During the offseason, the Jacksonville Jaguars made so many moves, this blurbist was unable to keep up with all of the roster changes. At the very least, there's only 12 players left from the nearly Super Bowl squad. This might be rough.

Game Matchups Preview #11: Bills vs. Chargers

NFL Super Bowl LV: Patrick Mahomes Prop Bets and Odds

(OC) Indianapolis Colts Top 5: Quarterbacks (2021 Update)

Last offseason I delved into who were the top 5 players at each position in Indianapolis (not Baltimore) Colts history. I made a list for each position group which I'll add as links at the end of this article. Each offseason I'll try to update the lists that I feel need to change. As I mentioned last year this list is purely my opinion as a die hard fan since the early Manning days, and if you think I have no clue what I'm talking about, please feel free to let me know.
Fun fact, out of the 26 QBs to start a game for the Indy Colts there are only 8 players that have a winning record. Three of them are Colts legends Josh Freeman, Gary Hogeboom, and Craig Erickson.

5. Jacoby Brissett (2020 #4)

https://preview.redd.it/xf2z4mv04pc61.jpg?width=1000&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5c2d53490adf64d76d126573c9418ba29524cd0f

Years	Record	Playoffs	Comp %	Yards	TDs	INTs	Y/A	Rating
2017-	11-19	0-0	59.5	6,059	31	13	6.5	84.2

How He Got Here

The Colts had their franchise QB in Andrew Luck, but leading up to the 2017 season it was revealed during the preseason Luck had a shoulder injury which would eventually lead to him missing the entire 2017 season. This left the Colts scrambling as they knew QB Scott Tolzien was not the answer at QB, so 8 days before the start of the season the new GM Chris Ballard traded 1st round bust Phillip Dorsett for 3rd string QB for the Patriots Jacoby Brissett. Brissett had looked at least competent spot starting for the suspended Tom Brady and hurt Jimmy Garoppolo in 2016, so he was the best option the Colts had available so close to the beginning of the season.

Colts Career

Bringing in a new QB for a team 8 days before the start of the season and asking him to play is like asking a train engineer to launch a rocket to the moon, so Tolzien started week 1 for Colts. He continued to not impress going into week 2, and was replaced for Brissett. Brissett was an improvement, but it was clear he was overwhelmed by the change of scenery and the rest of the Colts roster and staff was not talented enough to make up for it. He finished with competent numbers: 3,098 yards, 13 TDs, 7 INTs, 58.8% completion rate, 6.6 Y/A, but was merely a game manager for a bad team as the Colts finished 4-12.
Andrew Luck was ready to return in 2018 and the Colts were willing to give Brissett the benefit of the doubt and kept him on as the backup. The Colts saw a major resurgence with Luck and an incredible draft and free agent class by Chris Ballard, leading to their first playoff appearance since 2015, eventually losing to the Patrick Mahomes led Chiefs. The Colts were looking to improve going into 2019, but a now too familiar announcement led up to the season when it was revealed a calf injury was going to cause Andrew Luck to retire 2 weeks before the start of the regular season. The spotlight was once again shown on Jacoby Brissett, who was asked to take over Luck's team. Fortunately this time Brissett was able to get all the first team reps in the preseason leading up to week 1 and was much more familiar with the system.
That familiarity paid off as Brissett led the Colts to a 5-2 start, including wins over playoff teams like the Texans and Titans along with the eventual Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs. Brissett was not putting up All-Pro numbers, but had clearly improved from 2017 and was still not making game losing mistakes. Through week 9 he had 190 YPG, 11 TDs, and 6 INTs, and and the eye test had shown he was a good leader and could occasionally make big plays when needed. However, after a knee sprain in week 10 he was clearly not the same player. His injury either hampered his physical abilities or his confidence but his poor play for the rest of the season allowed the Colts to fall to 7-9, including an embarrassing 34-7 loss to the Saints that I made the trip over to New Orleans for and watched as Brissett sailed the ball over every receiver's head. Brissett was the backup to Philip Rivers in 2020, occasionally coming in for QB draw plays, and while he is still beloved in the locker room, he will likely be moving on via free agency to a team that wants to give him more opportunities to play. The consensus among Colts fans though is that we would love to keep him around not only because he's a solid backup, but because of his leadership and cultural impact.

My Favorite Highlight

https://youtu.be/Q1bFNE0CGXY?t=287

Legacy

I believe I'm with the majority of Colts fans in that when I see Jacoby Brissett I see somewhat of a tragic figure. He got thrown to the wolves in 2017 and did the best he could, but was basically set up to fail. It's honestly not too much of a stretch to say his play through week 9 of 2019 was the best QB play by an Indy Colts QB not named Manning, Luck, or Harbaugh. You could tell he was well-liked by both fans and teammates, especially through the first half of 2019, but his limitations as a player were clear. Colts fans have been spoiled in the 21st century by 2 all-time great QBs, so any deviation from that, especially when it's not by a QB we drafted #1 overall, will be seen as a major failure. I think people came down a little too hard on Jacoby by the end of 2019, and that he's still a solid pro capable of being the QB on a winning team in the right situation. However, he showed in the 2nd half of 2019 that situation is probably not in Indy going forward. He is still beloved in the locker room and by fans as of 2020, as he was the Colts' Man of the Year award nominee.

4. Philip Rivers (2020 Not Listed)

https://preview.redd.it/t0jfknq14pc61.jpg?width=900&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=31b6e8ea65de03d01fef3acab1f80efb269bf4b5

Years	Record	Playoffs	Comp %	Yards	TDs	INTs	Y/A	Rating
2020	11-5	0-1	68	4169	24	11	7.7	97.0

How He Got Here

The Colts were still searching for answers at the QB position after the sudden retirement of Andrew Luck and the uneven play of Jacoby Brissett in the 2019 season. The Colts roster was too solid to tank for a high pick, so they likely needed to search for a QB either via trade or free agency. After 16 years with the San Diego/Los Angeles Chargers, multiple Pro Bowls, multiple playoff runs, and 224 straight starts, Philip Rivers had a down year with the Chargers going 5-11, so they decided to let him go. Rivers thought he still had something left in the tank, so he went with the relatively known option of hooking up with his former OC (Frank Reich) and QB Coach (Nick Sirianni) in Indy in a tumultuous offseason for a pretty solid $25 million, 1-year deal.

Colts Career

Rivers got off to a rocky start in 2020, going 3-2 with 4 TDs and 5 INTs. Many fans were worried we were getting the washed up looking 2019 Phil Rivers and were stuck in another year of mediocracy. Fortunately by leading a furious comeback against Cincinnati in Week 6, Rivers finally started to click with the offense. Bolstered by one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, Rivers looked a lot more like the 2018 Pro Bowler than the 2019 player nearly out of the league. Unfortunately, in the 2020 signature win against the Green Bay Packers, Rivers sustained a toe injury that would remove whatever small amount of mobility he had left. However, if there's one thing Philip Rivers doesn't do, it's miss football games. That dude is a nearly literal iron man, and continued his NFL starting streak of 240 games (Tied for 3rd best all-time) for all 16 games of the 2020 season. Rivers provided a steady hand and worked well within the offense to help guide the Colts to the playoffs via a 2020 playoff first, a #7 Wild Card spot. Rivers and the Colts played well against a white hot Buffalo Bills team, but it wasn't enough to overcome what turned out to be a legit Super Bowl contender. Rivers, content with his pile of accolades and children, decided to retire from the NFL (with the potential rehab from his toe injury likely playing a large role in that decision).

My Favorite Highlights

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HDMr58USLww
or
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MRvwhyAmLIs
or
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nu6A9inxiUE

Legacy

Many people were skeptical of paying a seemingly washed-up QB that much money, even if it was a one-year deal. However, Colts fans all needed to remember to trust the binder™. Slightly older Colts fans may not have liked Rivers much for his constant antagonism and knocking the Colts out of the playoffs in the 2007 and 2008 seasons, but we quickly learned to love his quirky nature once he was on our team. Philip Rivers on the Colts will likely be a fun trivia question as the years go by, as Rivers will always be remembered as a Charger first, but Philip Rivers' Colts year was a great swan song for a Hall of Fame level career.

3. Jim Harbaugh

https://preview.redd.it/byasecl24pc61.jpg?width=1910&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=452b00c5721b46d1a1132e2cc095d3d049448dfd

Years	Record	Playoffs	Comp %	Yards	TDs	INTs	Y/A	Rating
1994-97	20-26	2-2	60.7	8,705	49	26	7.1	86.6

How He Got Here

The Colts had come out of the Eric Dickerson/Jeff George era looking like an absolute dumpster fire. The Colts had been in Indy for 10 years and Indy was still very much a basketball town. The only signature player the Indy Colts had was Eric Dickerson, and he had a very sour exit in 1992 after 2 bad years. The Indianapolis Colts were still in the woods, searching for the player that could give their franchise hope that they would be treated as a legitimate threat in the NFL and generate significant interest from the fanbase. That hope came from an unlikely source in Jim Harbaugh. Harbaugh had led the Chicago Bears to 2 playoff appearances in the late Mike Ditka-era, but his play had fallen off and by 1994 he looked somewhat washed. The desperate Colts made a surprisingly wise decision in not drafting QBs Heath Schuler or Trent Dilfer. Instead they drafted future Hall of Fame RB Marshall Faulk to replace Eric Dickerson (this is the "Who the hell is Mel Kiper?" draft) and signing Jim Harbaugh.

Colts Career

Harbaugh didn't come out guns blazing in 1994 as he traded starting duties with Green Bay castoff Don Majkowski. Harbaugh put up decent numbers but the Colts finished 4-5 in games Harbaugh started, 8-8 overall. Harbaugh entered the 1995 season as no sure thing, the Colts actually traded their 1996 first round pick for young Tampa QB Craig Erickson in another baffling trade for an unproven QB. Erickson and Harbaugh competed for the starting position in training camp and Erickson was selected as the starter by head coach Ted Marchibroda.
Erickson played poorly the first 2 weeks, being replaced and outplayed by Harbaugh in both games. By week 3 Harbaugh was the full time starter and didn't look back. Harbaugh was showing that he meshed well with new Offensive Coordinator Lindy Infante as Harbaugh put up some of the most efficient passing numbers of any QB in the NFL in 1995: 2,575 yards, 17 TDs, 5 INTs, 63.7% completion rate, and a league leading passer rating of 100.7 (ahead of guys like Brett Favre, Troy Aikman, Steve Young, and Dan Marino). Even more importantly he was a becoming the tough effective leader to energize the entire team, leading the Colts to 4 game winning drives that season, including one over the 1994 Super Bowl champion 49ers. The Colts were just outside of the playoffs going into week 17, but Harbaugh led the Colts to a win over the Drew Bledsoe led Patriots in the RCA Dome to sneak the Colts into the playoffs at 9-7. Harbaugh earned his first Pro Bowl appearance along with NFL Comeback Player of the Year.
The Colts were going into the playoffs as 5.5 point underdogs against the San Diego Chargers, a team they had just lost to in week 16. However, thanks to 3 TDs from Harbaugh and an out-of-nowhere 147 yard, 2 TD performance from rookie FB Zach Crockett, the Colts overcame the odds. They were heading into a gauntlet of Arrowhead stadium against the best defense in the league and a Marcus Allen led 13-3 Kansas City Chiefs. In an ugly game where the wind chill was -15oF, luck worked in the Colts favor. Harbaugh didn't throw well, but picked up several key 1st down with his legs. He had 1 INT and 3 fumbles, but fortunately lost 0. Chiefs QB Steve Bono had 3 INTs and K Lin Elliot went 0/3 on field goals in a season where he made 80%. Colts K Cary Blanchard made 1/3, and that was enough to upset the heavily-favored Chiefs 10-7. Harbaugh's most defining moment as the Colts QB would come in the AFC Championship against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Harbaugh's cinderella story continued on against Bill Cowher and Neil O'Donnell's Steelers. The Colts and Steelers traded scores throughout the game. With 8 minutes left in the 4th quarter, Harbaugh threw a dime to WR Floyd Turner for a 47 yard touchdown to put the Colts up 16-13. Unfortunately the Colts couldn't run out enough clock on their next drive and the Steelers rushed down the field for the go-ahead score to put them up 20-16. Harbaugh wasn't done yet. With 88 seconds needing 84 yards, Harbaugh willed the Colts down the field to the Steelers' 29-yard line for a hail mary shot with 5 seconds left. Harbaugh tossed up a prayer that was very nearly caught by Colts WR Aaron Bailey, but he couldn't come up with it. The Cinderella story was over, but it was a defining moment for the Colts franchise. The 1995 Colts were within a hair of making the Super Bowl, and that 1995 playoff run led by Harbaugh created a real fanbase for them.
Harbaugh's stats regressed some in 1996, but he still led the Colts to a 9-7 record and the playoffs, this time getting whooped by the Steelers in the wild card. In 1997 his stats improved some but the wheels fell off of the team as they started off 0-10, eventually falling to 3-13. Fortunately their record would net them the #1 pick in the 1998 draft. After it was clear the Colts were using the pick on QB they traded Harbaugh to the Ravens.

My Favorite Highlight

https://youtu.be/FT4vF24WanE?t=155

Legacy

“A lot of people use (the word) ‘culture,’ but the attitude, everybody was team-first, from the front office, together with the coaches, together with the ownership, together with the players, the equipment staff, the training staff, I mean it felt like we were family.” - Jim Harbaugh on 1995
I don't think enough can be said about the effect of Harbaugh and that 1995 team had on the Colts. He gave us our first source of pride in the Colts and set the tone for the franchise to not be the laughingstock of the league. He paved the way for the decades of excellence that came after. Harbaugh will never be a HoF QB, but his effect on the Colts is severely underrated.
For more details on the 1995 Cinderella season, read this IndyStar article: https://www.indystar.com/story/sports/nfl/colts/2016/01/21/1995-indianapolis-colts-jim-harbaugh-aaron-bailey-afc-championship-game-ted-marchibroda/78291676/

2. Andrew Luck

https://preview.redd.it/rcxlvdb34pc61.jpg?width=1800&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a6d281a8d9618713767fc95b094c4fd098f19e69

Years	Record	Playoffs	Comp %	Yards	TDs	INTs	Y/A	Rating
2012-18	53.33	4-4	60.8	23,671	171	83	7.2	89.5

How He Got Here

After a serious neck injury to franchise stalwart Peyton Manning, the Colts went from perennial playoff contender to nearly winless in 2011. It was unknown if Manning would ever be the same QB again, so the Colts opted to release their most valuable player and use their #1 pick in 2012 on a QB. There was some debate on possibly drafting the Heisman winner out of Baylor, Robert Griffin III, but new GM Ryan Grigson made no doubt in the fact that he was drafting Andrew Luck. Son of former Oilers QB Oliver Luck, Andrew Luck blossomed under head coach Jim Harbaugh to revitalize the Stanford football program while also graduating with a bachelor's degree in architectural design. Luck was hailed by nearly every scout as a can't miss prospect, having nearly every physical tool you want from a QB along with a clear handle on the mental and intangible aspects of the game.

Colts Career

Expectations for Luck were high going into 2012, but not so for the team overall. Many experts put the Colts at or near the bottom of all power rankings. Not only had the team lost Peyton Manning that year, but also many key pieces from the Manning era such as Pierre Garçon, Joseph Addai, Dallas Clark, Jeff Saturday, and Gary Brackett. To make matters worse, new head coach Chuck Pagano was diagnosed with leukemia and missed weeks 5-16. However, despite all odds, Luck led the Colts to an 11-5 record. Interim Head Coach Bruce Arians proved to be a diamond in the rough by helping Luck turn a 2-14 team that lost multiple starters into a playoff team. Luck's stats weren't always pretty: 23 TDs, 18 INTs, 54.1% completion rate, and a 76.5 rating, but he could clearly make plays happen with an absurd 7 game winning drives. The miracles came to an end with a shellacking by the eventual Super Bowl champion Baltimore Ravens in the playoffs, but this season proved Luck would be no bust, he was a force to be reckoned with.
Luck continued to grow in 2013 and 2014, improving in every category to crescendo in 2014 with a league-leading 40 TDs, 16 INTs, 61.7% completion rate, and a 96.5 rating. In 2013 he led the Colts to his first playoff victory in spectacular fashion. After being down 38-10 early in the 3rd quarter to the Alex Smith led Chiefs, Luck led a furious and unbelievable comeback 45-44 victory. Any Colts fan could tell you after seeing all the comeback victories Luck had led to never count him out, and he cemented that in this game. In 2014 Luck led the Colts past their old god of Peyton Manning in Denver in the divisional round, but were given a thorough ass-whooping in the AFC Championship by the soon-to-be Super Bowl champions New England Patriots in what is now infamously known as the "Deflategate Game."
Andrew Luck was a very physical player and was known to take many hits, sometimes making spectacular plays through those hits. However, that punishment started to pile up and wasn't helped by GM Ryan Grigson's poor draft classes and inability to build a competent offensive line to block for Luck. This culminated in the injury plagued 2015 and 2016 seasons. Luck only played 7 games in 2015 and severely regressed in every statistical category, clearly hampered by various injuries such as a lacerated kidney. Luck's stats improved in 2016, but the team did not as they finished 8-8, partially due to an astounding 7% sack of Luck. Either some of Luck's good fortune had finally run out or the team and culture built by GM Grigson had completely failed to support their superstar QB. Owner Jim Irsay bet on Luck and fired Grigson after 2016.
Hopes were high heading into 2017, but unfortunately an unknown snowboarding accident aggravated a previous shoulder injury for Luck. News was very slow to come out, but fans were shocked to find out he would likely miss the entire season 8 days before week 1. New GM Chris Ballard made a quick trade for Jacoby Brissett, but fans were worried after 3 years of being hampered by injuries Luck may never be the same player.
In 2018 we believed those doubts were proven wrong. Luck had an incredibly resurgent season, leading the new look Colts back into the playoffs for the first time since 2014 with a 10-6 record. Luck's numbers were back to form: 39 TDs, 15 INTs, and career bests of 67.3% completion rate and 98.7 rating. Fans were pleased to finally see Luck playing behind a solid offensive line that prevented which prevented him from being sacked for 5 weeks and giving him a career low 2.7% sack rate. Luck led the Colts to a Wild Card win over the Deshaun Watson's Texans, but were stopped in the cold in Arrowhead against Patrick Mahomes' Chiefs. However, hopes were high leading into 2019 that the structure given by GM Chris Ballard would protect Luck and allow him to lead us to our Super Bowl.
Sadly that did not work out as Luck appeared to have a calf injury leading up to the 2019 season. Fans held out hope he would be ready to go for the start of the season, but after the years of rehabbing Luck had finally had enough. 2 weeks before the season opener during a preseason game against the Chicago Bears it was leaked that Luck planned to retire. Fortunately his backup Jacoby Brissett was put in a better position to take his place as opposed to 2017, but the sudden and unexplained retirement of their franchise QB right before the season led to some fans to boo Luck as he left the field at Lucas Oil Stadium for the last time.

My Favorite Highlights

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=teNLH0p6WHs
or
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zBHhO2yWRMo
or
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0MJvGs4biAA

Legacy

Andrew Luck will forever be one of the greatest "what if?" stories in American sports history. Unlike many "what if?" stories, we got to see what we could have had with Luck. What the Colts had in Luck from 2012-14 along with 2018 was nothing short of incredible and it was clear he was improving to potentially become one of the greatest QBs in NFL history. Instead he's a tragic story where fans will forever be left to wonder what could have been with Andrew Luck. Would Luck have brought the Colts back to the Super Bowl if he he didn't play the majority of his career under the poor management of GM Ryan Grigson and HC Chuck Pagano? All we do know is that his sack rate under Grigson was 5.5%, and in one year on GM Chris Ballard's team it was 2.7%, coincidentally also one of his best statistical seasons. Peyton Manning's sack rate for his career? Tied for the NFL record with Dan Marino at 3.13%. Maybe if Luck had been better protected and coached better to avoid hits he could have made it up there with Manning, but as fans he'll forever be a "what if?" Luck seems like a smart and content man who's just starting a family, so I doubt he will ever return for any team. Even if he did we'll forever be robbed of what the best version of Andrew Luck could have been. However, in his short time here, he delivered enough incredible moments to give us hope and make us love the team. I, along with hopefully many other fans, will forever love Andrew Luck for his time with the Colts and am grateful for a helluva run.

1.Peyton Manning

https://preview.redd.it/9e2kmob44pc61.jpg?width=800&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7b6caa22028dfb2dee910a743d6b01c101e048cd

Years	Record	Playoffs	Comp %	Yards	TDs	INTs	Y/A	Rating
1998-11	141-67	9-10	64.9	54,828	399	198	7.6	94.9

How He Got Here

The Indianapolis Colts under Jim Harbaugh had finally established themselves as a legitimate team, but the Colts knew Harbaugh wasn't the long-term answer at QB. He was 35 going into the 1998 season and had just led the Colts to a 3-13 season, bad enough for the #1 overall pick. There was some debate about drafting Heisman finalist out of Washington, Ryan Leaf, but new GM Bill Polian made no doubt in the fact that he was drafting Peyton Manning. Leaf had some incredible athletic abilities, but there were some doubts raised about his ability to handle the mental aspects of the game. He also basically made the decision for the Colts when he skipped their draft interview, a passive-aggressive declaration he wouldn't play for the Colts. Peyton Manning, son of former Saints QB Archie Manning, was also a Heisman finalist out of Tennessee. No scout doubted Manning's ability to become a franchise QB in the NFL, but some wondered about his potential ceiling due to a complete lack of running ability and some arm strength concerns. However, he was clearly one of the most mature and mentally ready players to ever come out of college for any position.
"I'll leave you with this thought. If you take me, I promise you we will win a championship. If you don't, I promise I'll come back and kick your ass" -Peyton Manning to Colts GM Bill Polian on the day before the 1998 draft

Colts Career

The 1998 Colts were still a pretty bad team overall, and the rookie Manning was not enough to overcome that. He had one of the best statistical rookie seasons ever: 3,739 yards, 26 TDs, 28 INTs, 6.5 Y/A, and a 56.7% completion rate, setting records for yards, TDs, and INTs (yards and TDs are currently held by Andrew Luck and Baker Mayfield respectively). However, the deficiencies of the team and Manning's record number of interceptions helped give the Colts a 3-13 record, including a week 5 win over Ryan Leaf's San Diego Chargers.
Fortunately Manning helped lead one of the biggest turnarounds in NFL history in 1999, turning the 3-13 Colts in 1998 into the 13-3 Colts in 1999. People weren't exactly ready to give up on Manning after 1998, but 1999 was critical for showing Manning could improve and be at the helm of a winning team. Partially this was helped by sending Hall of Fame RB Marshall Faulk to St. Louis in exchange for the draft pick to select Hall of Fame RB Edgerrin James, who had a phenomenal rookie year. The Colts ended up losing to the Tennessee Titans in the playoffs, who had just completed the Music City Miracle the week before and would come within an ass hair of winning the Super Bowl against the Greatest Show on Turf St. Louis Rams.
Manning was up and down from 2000 to 2002, still posting good stats but missing the playoffs in 2001 ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-oSFYxDGKy8 ) and having first round exits in 2000 and 2002. Whispers started turning into legitimate arguments about how Peyton Manning was a good stats, dome team, regular season QB that just didn't have it in the playoffs. In 2003 Manning started his absurd streak of 12+ win seasons (7 years) and picked up his first MVP award, the first (and still only) Indy Colt to win it. He also got his first playoff wins in 2003, but was quickly put to shame in a 4 INT performance in the AFC Championship against the Patriots, now known by Colts fans as "The Ty Law Game."
The 2004 season is well known by Colts fans for cementing Manning among the all time greats. Manning was white hot all year, throwing for 4,557 yards 49 TDs, 10 INTs, and a 121.1 rating while only getting sacked 13 times. The 49 TDs was a record, which has since been broken by Tom Brady and Manning again while a member of the Broncos. Manning won MVP for the 2nd year in a row, but once again disappointed in the playoffs with a 0 TD, 1 INT performance against the Patriots in the divisional round, losing 20-3. Those arguments of Manning's postseason jitters were starting to feel more and more like reality for Colts fans. They knew they had their franchise QB, but his inability to perform in the playoffs continued to be baffling.
2005 was supposed to be the season that changed all that. Manning's numbers came back to earth somewhat, but he still posted a very efficient performance (104.1 rating) for a much improved overall team. GM Bill Polian had proved his days building the "Four Falls over Buffalo" Bills dynasty was no fluke, he now had a team with the #2 scoring offense and the #2 scoring defense. This was the year to break the Manning postseason curse. Unfortunately in one of the most upsetting games of my life, the Colts could not break that curse against the Steelers in the divisional round. Manning played relatively well: 58% completion rate, 290 yards, and 1 TD with no INTs, but watching the game the Colts struggled to maintain momentum and get stops against the rookie Ben Roethlisberger. Despite the inconsistent play, the Colts still had a shot. Steelers HoF RB Jerome Bettis attempted to ice the game with a goal line carry, but fumbled for the first time all year. With the entire Steelers offense stuffing the line, Colts CB Nick Harper was free to pick up the ball with a nearly open field ahead of him. Normally Nick Harper is one of the faster players on the field, however, as every Colts fan knows, Harper had been stabbed in the leg by his wife in a "supposedly accidental" altercation the night before. This possibly allowed the falling down Ben Roethlisberger to catch Harper by his shoe strings, preventing the nearly sure thing TD by Harper to put the Colts ahead. Instead Manning led the Colts into basically chip shot field goal position for one of the most accurate kickers in NFL history (Mike "Idiot Kicker" Vanderjagt) to tie the game. We all know what happened next. It was a shocking loss to say the least, and it was hard to blame it all on Manning, but it still felt like there was some sort of mystical VooDoo curse hanging over Manning and our franchise.
If the Colts couldn't win it all in 2005 it felt like they never would. 2006 wasn't looking like anything special compared to the past few seasons, especially considering the defense regressed from #2 in scoring in 2005 to #23 in 2006. Manning was still putting up great numbers, but those were starting to feel like an exercise in futility. Fortunately the Colts caught fire at the right time, with oft-injured All-Pro Safety Bob Sanders getting healthy towards the end of the season and the trade deadline addition of Buccaneers DT "Booger" McFarland. That momentum pushed them to an AFC Championship, where Manning would match up against the source of his ultimate playoff failures, Tom Brady and the New England Patriots. Fortunately, this time it was in the RCA Dome, not Foxborogh, MA. Manning and the Colts started off cold, being down 21-3 at one point after a Manning pick-6, but the Colts rallied behind some incredibly orchestrated drives by Manning to finally get the monkey off his back. On a last second drive, Manning drove the Colts down the field to put them ahead 38-34 with 1 minute to go. A Marlin Jackson interception of Tom Brady sealed it, Manning and the Colts were going to the Super Bowl for the first time in Indy history. Manning played well in the Super Bowl, winning the MVP against the league-best Chicago Bears defense.
Manning continued his solid play in 2007 and 2008, including his 3rd MVP in 2008. Both seasons ended with heartbreaking first round playoff exits to the San Diego Chargers, 2008's being the "Sproles and Scifres Game." 2008 also showed the first signs of physical weakness from Manning, having a knee surgery before the season that led to a slow start for the Colts. That was not the case in 2009, as Manning led the Colts to start the season 14-0. In a decision that's still derided today, new head coach Jim Caldwell decided to effectively bench Manning along with many other starters rather than go for the perfect season to prevent any injuries. Many had seen the Patriots in 2007 nearly complete the perfect season, but fall in heartbreaking fashion in the Super Bowl against a less talented Giants team. Caldwell, like many others, decided that any rust from not playing for nearly a month was worth the decreased risk of injury to his stars. That decision nearly backfired in spectacular fashion as the Colts were behind the New York Jets (a team they effectively let into the playoffs by letting them win in week 16) in the AFC Championship game until Manning led a furious comeback. It all ended poorly in the Super Bowl however as Manning threw a pick-6 to Tracy Porter that still haunts my dreams to Tracy Porter, allowing the Colts to lose to Drew Brees and his stupid baby and the New Orleans Saints.
2010 was one of the first signs of weakness from Manning. He had apparently injured his neck on this play in 2006 ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9gjdmww3vgM ) on a hit that would now be extremely illegal. Manning apparently aggravated that injury in the lead up to the 2010 season, and it showed in the stats as he had how lowest rating since 2002 (91.9). For most other QBs a rating of 91.9 is a pretty solid season but for Manning it was a massive fall. This led to a quick playoff exit to the Jets in the first round. In the lead up to the 2011 season, Manning had several surgeries to relieve the pain in his neck which led to him missing the entire season. It was unknown if he would ever be the same QB again, or even play again. Manning's absence showed how incredibly important he was to the franchise, the only major difference between the rosters in 2010 and 2011 is Manning, yet the Colts went 10-6 in 2010 and 2-14 in 2011. This poor record led to the Colts earning the #1 pick in the 2012 draft, which fueled their decision to release Manning and draft a QB in 2012 (Chandler Harnish...and Andrew Luck).

My Favorite Highlights

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DttfyOeU3vw
or
https://youtu.be/al13DoOFp78
or
https://youtu.be/UE4UgMc2QqA?t=581

Legacy

"Fellas, if 18 goes down, we're fucked, and we don't practice fucked." -Offensive Coordinator Tom Moore on why the backup QBs don't get more reps
Nothing to me cements Peyton Manning's role in Indy as much as this quote. Even his first 5 years before he became an all-time great, that was still the best sustained stretch of QB play in Indy Colts history. Once he ascended to another level in 2003, it was clear we needed to put every egg we could find into his basket. Manning was the perfect franchise QB: a steady presence on and off the field, consistent delivery of either incredible numbers or game winning performances (usually both), and he made nearly everyone else on the team a better player. His drive and commitment to team victory made him the guy every franchise needs if they want to field a consistently great team. Peyton had somewhat of an authoritarian leadership style, my way or the highway, but you can do that when you show that you're willing and able to give every ounce of yourself to the team and deliver the kind of results that he can.
I think some people are disappointed in the Manning Era considering how historically great his stats are but he was 1-1 in Super Bowls in 12 years here. Honestly I think that's not too far off for any all-time QB. Drew Brees is 1-0, Brett Favre is 1-1, Aaron Rodgers is 1-0, Fran Tarkenton is 0-3, Jim Kelly is 0-4, Dan Marino is 0-1, all of these guys are all-time great franchise QBs but it's not abnormal for them to only win 1 or lose several. There are some exceptions: Tom Brady (6-3), Joe Montana (4-0), Terry Bradshaw (4-0), and Troy Aikman (3-0), but honestly you could trade any of the former QBs for Terry Bradshaw and they would also probably be 4-0. There's lots of luck in every playing career, and some get luckier than others. The only season I'd say the Colts were "robbed" of a Super Bowl is 2005, otherwise I think Manning's Colts career went about as good as it could have.

2021 Removal: Formerly #5 Jack Trudeau at best was a game manager who handed the ball off to Dickerson and a competent long-term backup. He's not terrible, but wasn't really much more than a placeholder
Honorable Mentions: Matt Hasselbeck (5-3 record, probably our best backup ever) and Dan Orlovsky (just for saving us from a completely defeated season).
Dishonorable Mentions: Jeff George and Kerry Collins (being very bad at QB isn't very uncommon for Indy Colts QBs, but these guys were so bad and toxic they dragged down the abilities of everyone on the team and are actively hated by most fans)
TL;DR:

Jacoby Brissett - Bad situation, flashes of solid play
Philip Rivers - Parachuted in and gave us one solid season
Jim Harbaugh - A short but memorable run
Andrew Luck - Great while it lasted
Peyton Manning - I think he did alright

Other Lists:
Quarterbacks (2020 Edition)
Running Backs
Wide Receivers
Tight Ends
Offensive Linemen
Defensive Linemen
Linebackers
Defensive Backs
Specialists

odds to win super bowl mvp video

Editor’s Note: Tom Brady was named Super Bowl LV MVP. He had +190 odds to win it at DraftKings Sportsbook. On Feb. 7, 2021, the world will tune in for Super Bowl LV at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay, and the betting world will be honed in on the likely candidates for Super Bowl MVP . Super Bowl 55 MVP Odds. This year’s Super Bowl will be on Feb. 7 at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida. There’s still time before kickoff but the action on who will win the NFL Super Bowl MVP trophy is already fast and furious. Check the odds for Super Bowl MVP as of Feb. 4 at legal US online sportsbooks below. Brady, who will be playing in his record 10th Super Bowl, has earned the MVP award in the game a record four times. Favored since odds opened, Mahomes is +110 to win the honor during this year’s game. Brady is the second betting choice at +250. Super Bowl 56 MVP Odds What are the odds on Super Bowl MVP? January 31, 2021, 6:15 AM With a week to go before the big game, the SNY crew takes a look at the early betting odds for Super Bowl MVP. Super Bowl MVP Odds. Patrick Mahomes: +100. Tom Brady: +210. Tyreek Hill: +1200. Travis Kelce: +1300. Leonard Fournette: +2500. Clyde Ewards-Helaire: +2800. Super Bowl MVP is one of the most popular bets for the Super Bowl. Super Bowl 2021 predictions and latest odds – winners, MVP and more. We bring you all the latest Super Bowl predictions and odds ahead of the big game between Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Last year’s Super Bowl MVP is favored to repeat this year, according to the opening odds. Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is a +325 favorite. He is followed by five other quarterbacks in the Green Bay Packers’ Aaron Rodgers, the Buffalo Bills’ Josh Allen, the New Orleans Saints’ Drew Brees, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ Tom Brady, and the Baltimore Ravens’ Lamar Jackson. The favorite to win the award is Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes. He’s currently listed at -120, which means for every $120 you risk you would get back $100if he were to win. The player with the next best odds is the Bucs Tom Brady at +200. Player Odds to Win Super Bowl LV MVP Award. The fact that the two signal callers have the best odds to win the award, shouldn’t come as a surprise. Super Bowl - MVP Betting Odds. Get the best available NFL odds from all online bookmakers with Oddschecker, the home of betting value. Update: Tom Brady won his fifth Super Bowl MVP Award in Super Bowl 55. Brady was +175 to win the individual hardware prior to the game. Being named the MVP of the NFL regular season is an extremely impressive honor, but if you ask any player in the league, they’d likely tell you that becoming Super Bowl MVP is a whole other level of prestige.

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Super Bowl MVP Odds: Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady Favored ...

Tom Brady or Patrick Mahomes, who will be crowned MVP of Super Bowl 55? https://www.oddsshark.com/nfl/odds-win-super-bowl-mvp-awardWait a minute... yes they ... Sam Panayotovich reveals odds for the MVP of the Super Bowl featuring the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Bucs. -----Subscribe: http://www... Who do you think has the best chance of winning the Super Bowl MVPThis is a clip from The Pat McAfee Show live from Noon-3PM EST Mon-Fri.Become a member! htt... Jordan Sharp is back to usher you through some of the bigger favorites to win the Super Bowl MVP honors courtesy of Bovada sportsbook. It is still earl, so g... Davis Mattek is back just over a week away from the Super Bowl. This time, instead of picking the games (come back Monday for those plays), Davis is breaking... A QB has won the MVP 9 out of the last 12 years. Download the app: https://www.foxbet.com/ Keith Irizarry and Mike Carver break down the Super Bowl MVP odds.

Current Super Bowl Odds 2021: Vegas Sportsbook NFL Odds

odds to win super bowl mvp

odds to win super bowl mvp - win

Odds to win Super Bowl MVP

RW 7/2 odds to win Super Bowl MVP, Peyton the favorite at 6/5 (don't want to jinx it, but..)

Super Bowl 50 Odds and Props [FREE GOLD EVENT]

2017 Super Bowl Odds: Who Is the Vegas Best Bet to Win Super Bowl 51 MVP?

Kaepernick Current Odds On Favorite To Win Super Bowl XLVII MVP

Game Matchups Preview Playoffs Round #2: Bills vs. Ravens

++>>Super Bowl++>>: Chiefs vs Buccaneers Live On Reddit

Rams fan here

I hope you guys keep this same energy.

Biggest Over and Underperformers of the 2020 NFL Season

Overperformer: Miami Dolphins (O/U 6 wins, actual 10-5)

Underperformer: Dallas Cowboys (O/U 9.5 wins, actual 6-9)

Overperformer: Justin Herbert (Chargers O/U 7.5 wins, actual 6-9)

Underperformer: New England Patriots (O/U 9.5 wins, actual 6-9)

Overperformer: The Texans' draft picks (Houston O/U 8 wins, actual 4-11)

Underperformer: Drew Lock (Denver O/U 7.5 wins, actual 5-10)

Overperformer: Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay O/U 9 wins, actual 12-3)

Underperformer: Bruce Arians (Tampa O/U 9.5 wins, actual 10-5)

Overperformer: Kyle Shanahan (SF O/U 10.5, actual 6-9)

Underperformer: Jared Goff (Rams O/U 8.5 wins, actual 9-6)

Overperformer: Josh Allen (Buffalo O/U 9 wins, actual 12-3)

Underperformer: Adam Gase (Jets O/U 6.5 wins, actual 2-13)

Overperformer: Cleveland Browns (O/U 8.5 wins, actual 10-5)

Underperformer: Nick Foles (Chicago O/U 8 wins, actual 8-7)

NFL Power Rankings heading into the final three weeks of the 2020 season:

Top-tier:

Contenders:

Fringe playoff teams:

Striving to reach .500:

Already out of it:

[CBSSports-4k] Super Bowl 2021:Buccaneers vs Chiefs Free REddit

Reflection on the season and Super Bowl!

Official r/NFL Week 0 Power Rankings

Game Matchups Preview #11: Bills vs. Chargers

NFL Super Bowl LV: Patrick Mahomes Prop Bets and Odds

(OC) Indianapolis Colts Top 5: Quarterbacks (2021 Update)

5. Jacoby Brissett (2020 #4)

How He Got Here

Colts Career

My Favorite Highlight

Legacy

4. Philip Rivers (2020 Not Listed)

How He Got Here

Colts Career

My Favorite Highlights

Legacy

3. Jim Harbaugh

How He Got Here

Colts Career

My Favorite Highlight

Legacy

2. Andrew Luck

How He Got Here

Colts Career

My Favorite Highlights

Legacy

1.Peyton Manning

How He Got Here

Colts Career

My Favorite Highlights

Legacy

odds to win super bowl mvp video

odds to win super bowl mvp top

Super Bowl MVP Odds: Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady Favored ...