Welcome to the week 14 Official NFL Power Rankings! With circus catches and beatdowns alongside great games, there was plenty to discuss even before a MNF Scorigami that might already be airing on ESPN classic. 32/32 Reporting
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Team
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Record
Comment
1.
Chiefs
--
12-1
The Dolphins gave the Chiefs all they could handle in the first quarter of Sunday's game, but the Chiefs once again proved that when they are focused, they are the most dangerous team in the NFL. Travis Kelce, the NFL's leading receiver currently, had another monster game showing why he's a future hall of famer. However, after having five 10+ point wins in the first eight weeks of the season, the Chiefs last five wins have all been won by one score. Will this trend ultimately matter come playoff time? It's hard to argue with results, as the Chiefs 12-1 record is the best record through 13 games in franchise history. The ultimate barometer for the Chiefs is this week as they travel to play the Saints, hopefully with Drew Brees. Many questions will be answered in this clash of two top five teams.
2.
Packers
+2
10-3
There always seems to be one Lions-Packer game a year that ends up being some kind of adventure. Rodgers and Adams were as good as ever but the Lions kept on lingering throughout the game. Mason "Silver Fox" Crosby nailed an insurance 58 yard field goal with 3:30 to play and made a touchdown-saving tackle on the immediate kickoff. Aside from Crosby, the special teams really leave a lot to be desired, especially after the hands team almost allowed a onside kick recovery (c'mon y'all I don't need Bostic flashbacks). Packers officially won the division game and are now the projected 1 seed, which is pretty neat ngl. Onto a Saturday game I guess?
3.
Bills
+2
10-3
For a team that was searching desperately in 2019 for a signature win, the 2020 Bills have found them everywhere they turn. This team has had one of the toughest schedules in the league, but except for a couple games they've shown up every time they've had to. This is the second-best team in the conference. The Bills bandwagons are circling now. Josh Allen's extending his baseball glove-sized hand. He says "get in nerds, we're goin' to the Super Bowl."
4.
Saints
-1
10-3
This loss = Hurts. Dennis Allen seemingly had no answers for the rookie QB and then Miles Sanders piled on as well. "All the things we didn't want to allow happen, happened in that game." This was Sean Payton's post-game assessment and it's fair. Taysom Hill had an acceptable statline but it hides how sloppy he looked on the field. The defense struggled with its assignment to contain Hurts and keep him from getting outside the pocket - a worrying sign considering the next QB on the schedule.
5.
Steelers
-3
11-2
The Steelers schedule has been insane. 6 days between NYG and DEN. 14 days between HOU and PHI. 10 days between JAX and BAL. But with that BAL game, the Steelers played them, WFT and BUF in 12 days. 3 games in 12 days. The team is out of LBs and OL. This has been a challenging season for everyone, but this is unprecedented. The Steelers have 8 days until CIN, then 6 days until IND. 10 out of 16 games played with an irregular schedule? You can argue the drops are kicking their ass, but this schedule has been brutal. No wonder they've lost 2 straight.
6.
Rams
--
9-4
Imagine only scoring 3 points in a game.
7.
Colts
+1
9-4
Kenny Moore is a player underrated by national media but massively valuable to the Colts. GM Chris Ballard made re-signing him a priority after his breakout 2018 season. Moore has been a reliable performer throughout his tenure as a Colt and added an exclamation point with his insane one-handed interception on Sunday.
8.
Titans
+1
9-4
Derrick Henry had his second 200+ yard 2 TD game against the Jaguars on Sunday. The performance made Henry the 7th player to rush for 1,500+ yards and 14+ TDs through 13 games.
9.
Seahawks
+1
9-4
Nothing cures suicidal thoughts losing like playing the Jets, baby. Sunday was never much of a game, as it was all Seahawks all day. Russell Wilson threw for 4 touchdowns, Jamal Adams broke the single season sack record for defensive backs, and Geno Smith got to play a full quarter against the team that drafted him. What a way to get over a bad loss to the Giants. Up next the Seahawks will take on their final NFC East opponent of the season; Football Team.
10.
Ravens
+2
8-5
This ranker is a brown man, writing about how Lamar Jackson lost 20 pounds dropping some brown, dropping a TD to Brown, to go ahead against the Browns. They go for two. So in response, K-hunt ties the game, 42-42. In response, the Llama sets up the GOAT to nail a 54-yarder, 16th game winner of his career! To say nothing else of the game -- 9 total fucking rushing touchdowns, tying a record held since two defunct teams played each other before anyone on reddit was born... and Jackson runs for a MNF QB record 124 yards -- but still gets all the clutch plays done with his arm, with this middling group of receivers. The even greater news amidst all this is that the schedule doesn't look so bad in the closing stretch, and inspired play like this past Monday from the offense will ease the burden of the Ravens' gradually depleting secondary. Best wishes to Trace McSorely who made an extremely commendable effort to set them up for Lamar's return.
11.
Browns
-4
9-4
Did you bet the over? The Browns and Ravens combined for 89 points in an absolute rollercoaster of a game. While they did not win, the Browns have shown they are contenders. With two games to go a real shot at the playoffs is on the table. The Browns will face the Giants in another prime time game.
12.
Buccaneers
-1
8-5
The Buccaneers pulled off a 26-14 win over the Vikings, bringing their playoff chances to 94%. Vikes kicker Dan Bailey channeled his inner Gary Anderson to win the Bucs' game ball on an 0/3 kicking performance with an additional missed XP. Rookie Antoine Winfield Jr. played a disruptive game against his dad's former team and is looking like he has the potential to be one of the league's next great safeties. With only interim coaches to close out the remaining three games of the season, the Bucs should have smooth sailing into the Wild Card round.
13.
Dolphins
--
8-5
There are no consolation prizes in the NFL, but a single score loss to the best team in the league while the backup waterboy is lining up in the slot is about as close to a one as you'll ever get. While he was able to pull off the win, even Patrick Mahomes couldn't keep this ball-hawking defense from getting a hold of the ball, often. And at some point, if people don't start talking about Xavien Howard in the DPOY conversation, he's just going to go intercept the damned award himself. Hopefully, the long, long list of injured Dolphins get well soon.
14.
Cardinals
+1
7-6
A monster day from Haason Reddick and the defense finally put the Cardinals back on the winning track. Breaking a franchise record with 5 sacks was one thing, but getting all the turnovers was huge. Hopefully the offense feeds off of it and has a good week in preparing for a big game with Philly that has huge playoff implications. It will take a complete team effort to beat Philly with Jalen Hurts starting fresh of a win against the Saints.
15.
Raiders
-1
7-6
The Raiders looked really bad against the Colts, just like they have for the better part of the last 6 weeks. Luckily Gruden finally made the call to fire Pauly G, something fans have been calling for for the past 2 seasons. Only time will tell if it's too little, too late. Every game from here on out is a must win if the Raiders want to make the playoffs.
16.
Washington FT
+3
6-7
Washington is finding ways to win instead of finding ways to lose. The offense was not able to score a TD so the defense went ahead and spotted them 14 points. Chase Young notches his first TD and continues to prove his worth as the 2nd overall pick as a game wrecker.
17.
Vikings
--
6-7
Dalvin Cook became the first back to rush for over 100 yards against the Bucs in over 20 games, but the Vikings were unable to convert long drives into points as Dan Bailey went 0/4 on field goals and extra points. Couple that with some questionable officiating, the Vikings' banged up front seven generating zero pressure on Tom Brady and plenty of self-inflicted wounds and it all adds up to a real tough loss that knocks the Vikings down from wild card favorites to playoff long shots.
18.
Bears
+5
6-7
The Bears finally snapped their six-game losing streak by rolling over the Texans without much difficulty. Trubisky attempted one throw longer than 20 yards.
19.
Patriots
-3
6-7
Los Angeles, is a land of contrasts - In a span of four days the Patriots' hopes for a postseason were revived and then unceremoniously squashed. Run Defense, Offensive Line, Cam and the Receivers, There just are too many holes to cover up with week to week coaching, this team needs some reworking over the offseason. The Pats end the season with the division as always, lets hope to fuck someone’s season or seeding up. And also the Jets.
20.
49ers
-2
5-8
The 49ers defense did their job, holding the Washington offense to a total of 9 points, but the offense had two takeaways brought back for touchdowns and could not recover. The team looks to right the ship this week against the Cowboys.
It’s a real joy to watch the rest of the teams in the up-for-grabs NFC East secure wins, with one being against a top-5 team, all while watching your team play so poorly they start setting franchise records. At least we can say the hype was fun while it lasted, right?
23.
Falcons
-1
4-9
Outplayed by a team whose most impressive win is a tossup between the Bengals, Jaguars, and Jets? Check. Outcoached by special teams ace Anthony Lynn? Check. Ten point lead blown, two interceptions with under five minutes left, double check. Good thing age is just a number for the 32nd youngest team in the league.
24.
Panthers
-3
4-9
I'm not sure where the Panthers go from here. Coach Rhule has said that he isn't going to do the team and fans a disservice by beginning to evaluate players, which means that we're going to see more of Teddy Bridgewater (who is 0-7 in one score games this season) crumble at the end of the game. Playing at Lambeau in primetime in December is one of the hardest things a team can do, and it's not going to be an easy test for the Panthers, who so far have shown that they can't win close games, nor can they defend the pass (23rd in passing defense). It's going to be tough sledding, but hopefully Jeremy Chinn can continue his torrid pace and run his way into DROY.
25.
Eagles
+3
4-8-1
Jalen Hurts delivered the spark the Eagles needed to upset the Saints and spread 'quarterback controversy' all over the city of brotherly love. While the season remains a disappointment, the dual running threat of Hurts and Sanders could be interesting to watch going forward, and the NFC Least remains wide-open with 2 divisional games left on the 2020 menu.
26.
Lions
-1
5-8
Even with a loss, Interim HC Darrell Bevell showed that his Lions are here to compete. This game was never out of hands, and the Lions kept it close the entire time. There are still plenty of woes on Defense, but the Offense continued to ball out as expected. With two TD's coming from the run game (Swift and Kerryon), there is already something to look forward to next year. Lately the team has been able to trust the run on short yardage and redzone carries and it has helped the team with consistency in the red zone. Unfortunately, Aaron Rodgers is a QB that can carve up a weak secondary... so that didn't go great. There's around a 1% chance of the Lions getting a playoff spot, not unheard of, but it'll be tough if Stafford's injury progresses and we lose him for the season. #DefendTheDen
27.
Chargers
--
4-9
First of all, props to Falcons Twitter for this gem before the game, and it played out exactly as expected. Both teams did their best to try giving it away at the end, but the Chargers ended up on the winning side this time around. The Chargers had their hiccups again but there were improvements across the board; Justin Herbert's 81.8% completion percentage is his highest of the season, the defense came away with 3 INTs, and special teams probably had their best day. The Chargers get a short week before a Thursday Night tilt in Las Vegas.
28.
Texans
-4
4-9
The Texans are lucky that Paxton is the Texas AG, otherwise they would have had the biggest blowout loss in the state this past week.
29.
Cowboys
--
4-9
The Red Rifle won his revenge game, the defense forced multiple turnovers, and the Bengals were held to 3.4 yards per carry. All that, and the Cowboys still come out of the week with a top 5 draft pick. Honestly, Sunday couldn't have gone better. Now, the only question is whether this was the team turning the corner and the beginning of a strong finish to the season, or this was just a perfect moment of the Cowboys finding a shittier team with serious injuries issues and just doing what should happen in that scenario.
30.
Bengals
--
2-10-1
Giovani Bernard hadn't fumbled since 2013 before his 1st quarter fumble on Sunday. So what does he get for his troubles? A spot on the bench thanks to Zac Taylor. Giovani was one of the only veterans who spoke out in behalf of Taylor and the current coaches when multiple articles were released with "sources" saying that Taylor had lost the locker room last month. You have to question the benching for multiple reasons as the directionless Bengals continue to flounder to blowout losses. Just another reason why this should be Zac Taylor's last season as head coach in Cincinnati.
31.
Jaguars
--
1-12
This one felt more as expected. Perhaps it was in former GM Dave Caldwell's plans— no, wait, hear me out. Adjusting tinfoil hat; Based on the moves taken this offseason to seemingly dump talent from the Jaguars in attempt to amass more draft picks, perhaps the former front office of the Jaguars were banking on this season not being played, due to pandemic reasons. Sure, this may sound farfetched, but I'd like to hear a more reasonable explanation for fielding such a disaster as this team, this season.
32.
Jets
--
0-13
The Jets have now scored on 7 consecutive opening drives, the longest streak in the NFL. After climbing to an early 3-0 lead, I watched Peter Sawkins make an excellent cranachan custard slice on The Great British Bake Off.
Analysis of My Tennis Results Over the Last Two Years and How Betting Lines as Early as Possible More than Doubled my Returns
Betting Early and Price Shopping
This graph shows my units gained and ROI from betting ATP tennis in 2019 & 2020. The blue line is my actual results over 615 bets in that time period. These are the odds I actually bet the matches at. The stats are as follows: 352-250-13, +77.32u, +8.9% ROI, +1.94% CLV, +12.3 average cents of CLV per bet, and I beat the closing line 70% of the time. You can see all my past bets here. Note: FWIW, people calculate CLV differently. I calculate it as the % difference in implied probability, some people do the expected value % way. I decided to chart my returns as if I had made every bet at Pinnacle's closing line, the red line on the graph. The difference is quite noticeable. My returns betting at the closing line over those same 615 bets are as follows: +35.8u, +4.3% ROI. Getting on lines as early as possible (assuming you're on the right side) and shopping for the best prices even if its only between 2 or 3 books can make a massive difference in your results. I personally only shopped between BetOnline and Bookmaker as these books are better for tennis, but you could only imagine the insane advantage you could get shopping between 7-8 different books. Obviously many of us on sportsbook knew this was the case in theory, but I thought it would be cool for everyone to see the difference it can make over the longer-term: over multiple years and over 500+ bets, the added value from betting early and shopping for the best price will magnify your returns. After all, not many people track their results long enough to see this change. We're talking about getting only a 12 cent head start on the closing line, doubled my return after 600 picks. It seems not all Pinnacle closing lines are as efficient as made out to be
I was a bit surprised to see my results at close still had a 4.3% ROI over 600 bets. This return over that sample is beginning to become statistically significant. Pinnacle is known for having some of the sharpest closing lines in the business. Now tennis isn't on the same level as, say, English Premier league, but what gives here? This graph made by Pinnacle charts over 136,000 odds on tennis matches spanning from 2015-2019. As you can see there is an incredibly high degree of efficiency between the implied win % from the odds and the actual win % of those matches. (Note: the blue line is slightly below the yellow as the bookmaker's margin is not removed). Similarly, here is your ROI by odds groupings if you had blindly bet the Pinnacle closing line of every ATP main draw match since 2010. There's clearly a favorite-longshot bias in play here as underdog ROI's are in the negative double digits, but it seems Pinnacle's ATP closing lines are pretty efficient. Obviously, my results betting at close vs the empirical data of over tens of thousands of ATP matches on Pinnacle are beginning to contradict each other. My opinion is that is that, although it’s true that Pinnacle closing lines are a great, if not the best, estimator of the true probabilities of a tennis match, this is only true ON AVERAGE. As bettors, we have the distinct advantage of being able to select bets where we believe the market is wrong. We don't have to bet every single match or game. In the span of 2019 and 2020 there were roughly 16,000 ATP and Challenger level tennis matches; I only bet about 3% of them. It's certainly not out of the realm of possibility that Pinnacle just fucks up on pricing a small percentage of their bets. On the other hand, a prevailing theory may also be that there is some sort of price anchoring going on between Pinnacle and their customers betting into the line. From Joseph Buchdahl's article on Pinnacle: "Let’s suppose instead that when a price longer than the ‘true’ price is published, it is more likely that it will close still longer than the ‘true’price. Conversely, when a shorter than ‘true’ price is published it is more likely to close still shorter than ‘true’. Why should this be the case? Well, since the ‘true’ price remains unknown, both to the bookmaker and their customers, the actual value of the opener could be hypothesized to act as a kind of anchor or reference point which biases judgement and restricts the magnitude of future movements. Sure, pricing mistakes will be exploited, but possibly not by as much as they should be. That, at least, is the idea" of price anchoring. He goes on to say: The majority of bettors will probably look at the odds before deciding whether to bet rather than undertaking their own analysis to determine a ‘true’ outcome probability. Thus, when a bettor sees a bookmaker’s price of 2.25, they might take the view that the ‘true’ price is 2.05, and not 2.00. The act of observing the 2.25 may influence their judgement to the extent that they will deviate away from the ‘true’ price and towards the anchor price. A similar argument can be applied to prices shorter than ‘true’." So, it's possible that there is some amount of price anchoring going on, and these closing prices are closing not long enough or not short enough from their fair values. It's also possible that I've just been getting astronomically lucky for the past two years, but we can only guess until I submit more bets. CLV Matters
Although not all of these closing lines are efficient, my results are better as my CLV improves. See some of these stats for reference.
When getting positive no-vig CLV: +66.78u, +16.0 ROI% over 291 bets
When getting negative no-vig CLV: +10.55u, +2.33% ROI over 324 bets
When my closing line value does not even beat out the bookmaker's vig, the returns are a measly +10u over 324 bets. When I overcome the juice, my ROI skyrockets to 16% over 291 bets. Lessons learned / Advice
Bet as early as your bet size will allow and shop for the best prices. It will lower the sportsbook's hold and will vastly improve your returns. This is the easiest way to improve your edge right off the bat. I think my results showed this.
Perhaps focus your betting on less efficient markets. Want to bet NFL or NBA for example? Focus on player props, instead of sides and totals. You're more likely to have an actual edge and are also more likely to find prices way off from the rest of the market
If you do decide to dabble in more efficient (hard-to-beat) markets, keep track of your CLV. Once you obsess over beating the closing line you become more price sensitive and more process oriented rather than results oriented. Your focus shifts to accumulating expected value over time that will produce results in the "long-term", rather than "trying to pick winners." on a day-to-day basis. CLV isn't the ultimate proxy for success, there are some exceptions, but the benefits a bettor achieves from making this his / her main focus cannot be overstated.
Anyways, sorry for the long post; hope you enjoyed the read. If you want to follow me this tennis season, I post everything in the Tennis Daily thread. I also have a telegram channel that you can follow so that you get notifications of when I bet. Reddit isn't always the best medium for sharing plays. The next tournament is in a few weeks with the Australian Open right around the corner. Best of luck!
Thoughts on Brady having a monster game this week?
Really like a couple Brady bets this week but want to get the perspective of some fans. Brady Over 285.5 Passing yards + Over 2 TD’s We start off Week 14 NFL Player Props with Brady. He is now well rested off of a bye week going against a very weak Vikings defense. While the Vikings may have a proficient run defense their passing defense is a total mess. The Vikings are at the point where their first and third-round rookie corners are getting a decent amount of playing time. Over the last three games, Brady has put up good numbers going against actual defenses including: 27-41 for 345 along with 3TD’s and 2 Picks vs the Chiefs 26-48 for 216 along with 2TD’s and 2 Picks vs the Rams 28-39 for 341 along with 3TD’s and 0 Picks vs the Panthers When Brady is facing elite defenses it becomes harder for him to produce. He definitely can still tear up league medium and below defenses. I’m expecting Brady to come out strong and show the world that Tampa is still a super bowl contender in a perfect get-right place against the Vikings. more info
Thoughts on Derrick Carr to throw and interception this week?
Really like this bet but want to get the perspective from some people who watch there games. Derrick Carr to throw an Interception, +120 Carr has thrown 3 interceptions in his last 3 games against TERRIBLE defense including the Jets, Falcons, and the middle of the road Chiefs. According to most metrics including DVOA, the Colts are a top 8 defense both against the run and the pass. The key to this play is limiting Josh Jacobs in the rush game and the Colts are a team that should be able to mitigate him. Overall Carr is probably going to be forced to throw the ball against the Colts defense, considering his recent games and the + odds we are getting I’m excited to lock this play in. Obviously, interceptions are never going to be a lock but I like the value of this play. more info
NFL Prop Bets: Taking the Unders on QB passing yards despite scoring at an all-time high
Normally I post in the POTD threads bets I make on MLB underdogs or some standard NFL ATS or O/U bets. However, in the derivatives/ancillary markets, prop bets are known to be a soft spot in the armor of a sportsbook. A high hold, low limits, and inconsistent offerings have historically kept large bettors on the sidelines, and to be fully transparent, this is one of my first forays into seriously betting into the prop market. BUT, after witnessing record scoring in the NFL this season, I decided to dig into yardage totals. What I found was a surprisingly inefficient props market that 1) shades against traditional bettor biases, 2) fails to capture injury and substitution (benching) risk, 3) doesn't account for the skew in the distribution of passing yards, and 4) misses the changing relationship between points and yards. Let's walk through these one-by-one. 1) BETTOR BIASES: It's commonly understood that the majority of recreational bettors enjoy betting overs. Life is too short to bet the under. As a result, sportsbooks often shade their lines higher for props to increase their profits on Over bets. This season, the average team passing yards per game is 264.5. The average line at DraftKings for all of the QB passing yardage props this week is 264.8. This might not seem like a big difference, but consider that the Seattle Seahawks (300.4 passing yards per game), Los Angeles Chargers (280.6), Las Vegas Raiders (288.4), and New Orleans Saints (273.8) are all on bye. 2) TOTAL YARDS VS STARTER YARDS : We are comparing team passing yards to the lines set by the sportsbook above. However, the prop wagers are for specific players, not the team as a whole. Because of injuries, trick/gadget plays, and in-game benchings (sorry Mitch Trubisky), aggregate team totals exceed the passing yards of the starting quarterback. The average passing yards for a starting quarterback this season is 256.5 yards. 3) DISTRIBUTION (AVERAGE VS MEDIAN) : Using the average passing yards for starting quarterbacks does not reflect the specific bet we are considering. The bet is binary - over or under - and thus it doesn't really matter if you win by 1 yard or 100 yards for the purposes of grading the bet. The more appropriate metric we should look at is median passing yards, which is the midpoint of the entire distribution of outcomes, where half of the outcomes are above the target and half are below. Due to an upward skew in the distribution of passing yards, the average generally exceeds the median, because it is more likely that a starting QB throws for 500 yards than 0 yards (and generally there is a lower bound of zero). The median passing yards for starting quarterbacks this season is 252 yards. 4) MORE SCORING = MORE PASSING YARDS? IT'S COMPLICATED: There has been plenty of discussion of the increase in scoring this season. However, much of this increase can be attributed to changes in officiating. As a result, the relationship between passing yards and points is changing. Over the past 10 seasons, the ratio of yards to points has averaged 16.0 with a standard deviation of 0.2 (high of 16.3 in 2011, low of 15.6 in 2013). So far in 2020: 14.9. The implications are that passing yards are not increasing proportionately with points. It's hard to tell if this is the new norm, but for the time being, it seems like a pretty safe bet that yards will lag scoring. All of these small details add up to a big edge in betting the under on QB passing yardage prop bets. Going forward, I will almost exclusively target unders. Today, I'm looking at: BENGALS AT COLTS:JOE BURROW UNDER 250.5 PASSING YARDS (-112 or better) RAVENS AT EAGLES:CARSON WENTZ UNDER 239.5 PASSING YARDS (-112 or better) LIONS AT JAGUARS:GARDNER MINSHEW UNDER 287.5 PASSING YARDS (-112 or better) BRONCOS AT PATRIOTS:DREW LOCK UNDER 220.5 PASSING YARDS (-112 or better) TEXANS AT TITANS:DESHAUN WATSON UNDER 289.5 PASSING YARDS (-112 or better) BET SIZES: approximately 2% of bankroll, with the exception of Deshaun Watson at 1.5%. I send a newsletter you can check out that has all my bets that I send before games. Later this evening I'll post a couple more prop bets for the MNF games. If you're getting slightly different pricing from your book, I estimate the push probability of one passing yard to be approximately 0.6%, which equates to about 2.5 cents per passing yard. I'll create some pricing tables that will make it easier to compare different prices across various books later this week. Edit: MNF Unders: CHIEFS AT BILLS: JOSH ALLEN UNDER 290.5 PASSING YARDS (-112 or better) CARDINALS AT COWBOYS: KYLER MURRAY UNDER 289.5 PASSING YARDS (-112 or better)
Brandon McManus set Denver's single-game record for made field goals (6) against New England in Week 6. McManus made a pair of 50-yard field goals, tying him for first in NFL history with six games with multiple made field goals from 50+ yards
Phillip Lindsay rushed for more than 100 yards against last week for the sixth time in his career. Denver is 6-0 when Lindsay tops the century mark since he entered the NFL in 2018.
Justin Simmons, who has played all 346 of Denver's defensive snaps to start this season, owns the longest active streak of consecutive snaps played (2,472) among NFL defensive players.
Tim Patrick became the first Bronco since Emmanuel Sanders in 2018 to record consecutive 100-yard receiving efforts.
The Broncos rank first in the NFL since the start of the 2019 season in red zone scoring defense, allowing a touchdown on only 25 of 61 opponent trips (41.0%) into the red zone.
This thread is specifically geared toward Broncos fans. Sort by new for the most recent comments. Pick your flair in the sidebar. Subscribe to /denverbroncos
WEEK 3: Denver Broncos (0-2) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-1)
The Denver Broncos will look to snap their two-game losing streak to start the season against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday at Empower Field at Mile High (2:25 p.m. MDT kickoff). The Broncos will be hosting approximately 5,700 fans as the team opens the stadium’s doors to Broncos Country for the first time this season. Game Previews
Buccaneers vs. Broncos Preview: All eyes on the quarterback position | Broncos Weekend - Video
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Denver Broncos | Week 3 NFL Game Preview - Video
FOX: Adam Amin, Mark Schlereth and Lindsay Czarniak
Local Radio (KOA - 850 AM/94.1 FM and The Fox - 103.5 FM): Dave Logan, Rick Lewis and Susie Wargin
Game Notes
Line: TB -5.5 · O/U: 42.5
Weather: Partly Sunny, 57°F at kickoff
The Broncos have won four consecutive games against Tampa Bay (2004-present) and own a 7-2 (.778) all-time regular-season record against the Buccaneers.
Denver owns a 9-8 all-time overall record and 6-7 regular-season record against Tom Brady. Denver is the only NFL team with an overall winning record against Brady.
Broncos own a 7-4 overall record at home against Brady, and has defeated his team three times in the AFC playoffs, including twice in AFC Championship Games (2013, ‘15).
Jeff Driskel is expected to make his first start with the Broncos on Sunday. In relief of the injured Drew Lock in Week 2, Driskel nearly completed a Broncos comeback, connecting on 18-of-34 passes (52.9%) for 256 yards with two touchdowns and one interception (84.9 rtg.)
Driskel joined John McCormick (1966) as the only two QBs in Broncos history to throw for at least 250 yards and multiple touchdowns in a game they didn’t start.
Noah Fant, who has a touchdown in each of the team’s first two games, ranks fifth in the NFL among tight ends with 138 receiving yards through two weeks.
Fant needs one TD reception to match Demaryius Thomas (6) for the second-most TD catches in team history through his first 19 games. Also needs one receiving TD to be the first Broncos TE to record at least one receiving TD in three consecutive games since Julius Thomas.
Jerry Jeudy has made eight catches for 118 yards (14.8 avg.) through his first two games. His 118 yards rank third in the NFL among first-year pass catchers.
The Broncos have played in 11 one-score games, tied for the seventh-most such games played in the NFL since the start of 2019. In games decided by 8 points or less, including both of the team’s losses to Tennessee and Pittsburgh this season, Denver is 4-7 (.364).
Melvin Gordon has tallied 148 rushing yards on 34 attempts this season, 124 more than the Broncos' next-leading rusher (Phillip Lindsay, 24). Gordon also has five receptions and has accounted for 41.9 percent of the Broncos' touches this season, fifth highest in the NFL.
Melvin Gordon needs one scrimmage touchdown (rush or rec.) to become the fifth active running back with 50 combined scores.
The Broncos 2020 rookie class has combined to play 601 total snaps—the second most in the NFL—through Week 2.
Broncos sign QB Blake Bortles, make two other roster moves - Article
Injury Report: Phillip Lindsay returns to practice, doubtful to play in #TBvsDEN - Article
Broncos promote QB Brett Rypien, DL DeShawn Williams to active roster - Article
Injury Report: Mark Barron, DeMarcus Walker could be activated off IR later this season - Article
Injury Report: Courtland Sutton to miss remainder of 2020 season, Drew Lock out multiple weeks - Article
Broncos place Courtland Sutton, Dre'Mont Jones on injured reserve - Article
A guide to attending a game at Empower Field at Mile High under COVID-19 precautions - Article
A closer look at Empower Field at Mile High’s COVID protocols - Video
'I just have to do better': HC Vic Fangio pledges to improve commitment to wearing face covering on sideline - Article
Last Meeting
The Broncos and Buccaneers last met on October 2, 2016 at Raymond James Stadium - Box Score
Paxton Lynch made his NFL debut sooner than expected Sunday, stepping in for injured starter Trevor Siemian to help the Broncos remain unbeaten with a 27-7 victory over the Buccaneers - Recap
Buccaneers OLB Shaquil Barrett spent his first four NFL seasons with the Broncos (2015-18), appeared in 64 career games and was a member of Denver’s Super Bowl 50 team.
Please check back throughout the week as I’ll update the news/injury report daily.
Welcome to the reveal for players ranked 20-11 for this year’s NFL Top 100 Players for the 2019 Season!
Players whose average rank had them land in places 20-11 are on this portion of the list revealed today. Players are associated with the team they finished 2019 with. Below you will see write-ups from rankers summarizing the players' 2019 season and why they were among the best in 2019. Stats for each player are from this season and are included below. Additionally, their previous ranks in this long running series are also available for all of you. Methodology LINK TO THE HUB POST WITH A MORE DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE METHODOLOGY
Rankers for each team nominated players to rank. 10 Games Played Minimum Threshold. Players are associated with the team they finished the 2019 Season with.
The Grind. Utilize ranking threads for individual rankers broken up by positional group. Users were tasked with ranking players within the following tiers based on their evaluation: T-25, T-50, T-100, T-125 based on 2019 regular season only. There were no individual case threads. There were no arbitrary position limit caps. Just questions and rankings.
Users submitted their individual Top 125 list. Ranking out to 125 is new for this year.
User lists were reviewed for outliers by me with assistance from two former rankers. Users were permitted to correct any mistakes found. Once complete, lists were locked.
Reveal the list… right now.
So now, without further ado, here are the players ranked 20-11 in the NFL Top 100 Players of the 2019 Season!
#20 - Danielle Hunter - EDGE - Minnesota Vikings
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Written By:uggsandstarbux Khalil Mack. Von Miller. JJ Watt. Those are the names that come up when you mention edge players in the NFL over the last half a decade. Yet none have as many sacks as Danielle Hunter in the last two years. Hunter is continually passed over in the conversation of edge rushers. Even among young edge rushers like the Bosa brothers, TJ Watt, Myles Garrett, and Bradley Chubb, Hunter is forgotten. He only received 4 All Pro votes from AP (of a possible 50). He failed to make PFF’s All Pro team. Is it because he wasn’t a 1st round pick? Is it because the Vikings defense was already dominant before his arrival? Hunter has improved every year he’s gotten into the league (88 pressures this year vs 67 last year vs 55 in 2016). His first couple years in the league, he rotated in behind Everson Griffen and Brian Robinson. Yet he holds the record for most sacks before his 25th birthday and was one of only a handful of players in 2019 with double digit sacks and 15+ TFLs last season. He earned an 89.0 overall grade from PFF and forced 3 fumbles this year. Beyond the numbers, Hunter is a unit. He came out of LSU as one of the more raw pass rushers in his draft. However, under the tutelage of the mighty Andre Patterson, Hunter has become one of the most athletic, versatile, technical, dominant edge defenders in the game. He can beat you with a pure bull rush, but he can also beat you with his speed and agility. He’s picked up Everson Griffen’s deadly spin move and has the motor to work through double teams. He can win with an inside move, or he can play pure 3T for an entire game (a la vs NO). He’s got a great understanding of the game and is a force to be reckoned with. If you’re placing bets for DPOY in 2020, don’t waste your money on the big name guys like Aaron Donald (+750) or Khalil Mack (+1100). Don’t spend it on young up and comers, lke Nick Bosa (+1300) or TJ Watt (+1500) either. Place it on Danielle Hunter (+2300). He’s going to continue dominating as he gains more recognition and climbs toward stardom.
#19 - Chris Godwin - Wide Receiver - Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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Written By:MysticTyph00n At the beginning of the 2019 NFL season Bruce Arians said: "I think Chris Godwin is going to be close to a 100-catch guy, especially because I think he can play in the slot,"...."He's never coming off the field." Bucs fans thought this could be very well true in BA's system, especially with the departure of Desean Jackson which only really left Mike Evans as the only other real target on the team. The 3rd round pick from Penn State showed up big time this year after having two relatively quiet seasons. Through 13.5 games (missing the final 2.5 due to a hamstring injury) he amassed 86 receptions for 1,333 yards, 9 TDs and only one drop(In fact he's only had 2 drops total in 2018 & 2019)He very well could have gone over 100 receptions , 1,500 yards as well as double digit TDs, but that's just projecting right? According to PFF he was an absolute monster in the slot with an outstanding 96.5 grade, which shows he can line up anywhere on the field and still produce big time for the Buccaneers. In 2020, I honestly expect Chris Godwin to have close to the same production, and possibly even better with how much he produces from the slot. Please don't leave us…
#18 - Quenton Nelson - Offensive Guard - Indianapolis Colts
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Written By:Zzyzx8 Selecting a guard 6th overall was a bold movie for second year GM Chris Ballard, even one as highly touted as Quenton Nelson. Casual fans hated it, while draft junkies loved it. Two years later, it’s become clear that the pick was a home run. Nelson’s selection single handedly turned around a unit that was largely responsible for a slew of injuries to Andrew Luck into one of the best units. Nelson’s second year was only better, cementing himself as one of the best guards in the league, a true road grader. He spent the past year terrorizing nfl defensive lineman en route to his second pro bowl and all pro selections. Plus, he pulled off what was by far the best touchdown celebration of the season
#17 - Jamal Adams - Strong Safety - New York Jets
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Written By:the_fuzzy_stonerrobdog1330 I would just like to start with a moment of silence for the fans of the New York Jets after Jamal Adams recently demanded a trade from that inept organization with a dumpster fire of a coach in Adam Gase. Anyways, after an incredible sophomore season, Adams has kept up with his awesome play in his third season as one of the NFL's best and most versatile defensive players as well as the clear-cut best player on a football team that somehow won seven games. Adams, also known as President 'Mal, recorded an interception (which was returned 61 yards to the house), 7 passes defended, 11 hurries, and 36 stops, but that's not all! Adams also garnered 6.5 sacks (which is amazing for a DB) and forced two fumbles (like this one he returned to the house on my guy Daniel Jones 😔). With his exceptional play, the star safety was named to the 1st Team All-Pro as well as his second Pro Bowl selection (an honor which none of his other Jets teammates got this year). What makes Adams so special is that he is exceptional against both the running and passing game. Whether he's with Gang Green or another franchise next year, I'd expect another stellar season out of Jamal Adams in 2020 (assuming there is one) and even as a Giants fan who watched him dominate my team this past season, I really appreciate the guy's play.
#16 - Derrick Henry - Running Back - Tennessee Titans
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Written By:broccolibush42 DERRRRIIIICK HENRY!!! This part man part tractor was the plow that turned our barren field into a bountiful wheat field full of Nashville Hot Chicken. This beautiful muscly man with a poop rat tail decimated opponents and General Sherman'd the AFC South. Totaling at 1540 yards and 16 Touchdowns in 15 games, with 6 coming from a slow start in a Mariota lead offense, he caught fire and dragged his nuts all over teams like the Chargers, Chiefs, Jags, Colts, Texans, Raiders and was showing just absolute dominance on the field. (Sadly we arent able to take the playoffs into account otherwise i'd gush over how he embarrassed a couple of scrub one and done teams). Henry has this certain tenacity and a godlike level of endurance that just makes him an absolute beast in the 2nd half. He is just able to keep going, and going, and going, until finally, players get tired of it and turn into lead blockers for him. He is extremely hard to tackle to. Take a look at this play against the Chiefs in week 10, guys just bounce off him like he's running through toddlers. Derrick Henry is so hard to tackle that, according to PFF, Henry had over 1200 of his 1540 total yards after contact. Like this dude was getting hit at the line of scrimmage and he is just like, fuck this shit, i aint no dion lewis, and keeps going. How is this guy even real??? Another thing about Henry is his speed! Henry is a 6'3" 240 pound dude running 20+ MPH down the field when he breaks the open one. Like look at this speed he gets vs the Browns in week 1. Or this one against the Jags where he outruns guys and stiff arms the ones who barely managed to keep pace. Speaking of stiff arms, Derrick Henry has one of, if not, the BEST Stiff Arm in the league. If I had to pick a way to die, I think I would like Henry to stiff arm me in the face running at me at 21 miles per hour with this face, because there would be no greater honor to a titans fan than death by Henry. That concludes my Henry jerk fest. Here are some more highlights. andherearethereallink.
#15 - Travis Kelce - Tight End - Kansas City Chiefs
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Written By:DTSportsNow Travis Kelce was drafted in the 3rd round of the 2013 draft. He wound up missing his rookie season due needing to receive microfracture surgery on his knee over the offseason and dealing with a bone bruise during the season. Since then he's received 4 All-Pro designations and was named to the NFL 2010s All-Decade team. He's also become the 1st TE in NFL history to have 4 straight 1,000+ yard seasons. Not bad considering how his career got started. In 2019 he finished his 2nd straight season of 1,200+ yards and 3rd straight season leading the league in deep receiving yards by a tight end (274). He finished top 4 in overall TE grade for the 4th straight year (85.1), and was named to his second 2nd-team All-Pro designation. In the Sunday Night Football contest against the Chicago Bears he caught his 500th career reception, becoming the fastest TE in NFL history to reach that mark. There's no doubt that Kelce is one of the best tight ends in the game, and winding up in the top 20 proves many believe him to be one of the very best players in the league. Since Gronk's decline it's essentially been between him and George Kittle for the top player at the position. He's a key component of what Andy Reid and the Chiefs like to do on offense, even as stacked as the offence is. With a Super Bowl victory and a few records to his name already his legacy will be decided by how long he can keep up his premier play. His partnership with Patrick Mahomes should take him to a locked up Hall of Fame bust.
#14 - Ryan Ramczyk - Offensive Tackle - New Orleans Saints
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Written By:Dahki In 2017, sb nation wrote an article claiming that Ryan Ramczyk wasn't a first round talent at LT. The site went so far as to say he would benefit from a switch to RT. In short, they ended up nailing that on the head. The three-year vet has spent almost the entirety of his career anchoring the right side of the Saints O-line after being picked at 32 overall, and boy, has it worked out for both the team and the Wisconsin alum. Ram makes the /nfl top 100 list for two reasons. First, he was really good. Second, we really wanted to hammer in the idea that the Saints O-line as a whole was really good. Most notably, Ram exits the 2019 season with his first first-team all pro, and he was more than deserving of it. Similar to teammate Terron Armstead, Ram refused to allow Brees or Teddy to be touched, giving up no sacks on the season. Even better, Ram kept his QBs almost squeaky clean in the pocket, allowing just one hit on the entire season, good for 2nd best in the league among nominated tackles. And Ram didn't just do well in pass pro; he was PFFs top graded OT when run-blocking, showcasing his power and quickness from his spot. In total, Ram spent the 2019 season as the biggest challenge for opposing D-lines to overcome when facing the Saints.
#13 - Julio Jones - Wide Receiver - Atlanta Falcons
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Written By:CokeZ3ro It's a bird, it’s a plane, no it's Jet Jones! In his 9th season Julio continues to be one of the most dominant receivers in the NFL, and the undisputed best player on the team. He’s a force that defenses must give their full attention, and even then he can explode. Even when he doesn’t get the ball, his influence and abilities still shape the play, and better everyone around him. This past offseason Julio agreed to a three-year contract extension worth $66 million, making him the NFL’s highest paid WR, and extending him to 2023. Even though 2019 was a down year statistically, Julio continued to show why the money is worth it. In a “down year” Julio was 2nd in reception yards, 3rd in Yards/Game, and 1st in Scrimmage Yards/Touch, and made his 6th consecutive Pro-Bowl. But stats can hardly capture the elite combination of athleticism and skill that makes Julio so great. A combination perfectly captured here where Julio is able to jump over the coverage of CB Leodis McKelvin and then tiptoe to complete the coverage on the way down. Later that same game, with the Falcons against the wall, Julio showed that no man can catch him in a 53-yard burst (shoutout to Jake Matthews for the Pancake Block). Julio utilized his route skills to make CB Pierre Desir eat turf before making a 34-yard reception; which likely would have been much more if Ryan didn’t underthrow it. He’s pretty good at catching too, exhibited as reaches over CB Quincy Wilson and manages to hold onto the ball through tackles from Wilson and SS Clayton Geathers to score. Doesn’t matter who you are, Luke Keuchly, Marshon Lattimore, AJ Bouye; doesn’t matter. bUt hE dOEsn’T gET tOUchDoWnS I hear the Fantasy owners say. Watch this and notice how often in the redzone Julio is serving to support his team (blocks, inside presence, taking double defenders), or is just ignored. He’s open more often people realize. Even in a disappointing season for the Falcons, Julio continues to shine through as one of the NFL’s premiere combos of athleticism and skill. Julio is and will continue to be an absolute force for the offense.
#12 - Chandler Jones - EDGE - Arizona Cardinals
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Written By:Beehay In my write up of ChanJo last year, I mentioned that the return to the 3/4 (even if it's under Vance Joseph) will be huge for his stats. And boy howdy was it! At 30 years old and after double digit sack totals for 5 straight years, Jones set a career high of sacks at 19 this year. He had 8 Forced Fumbles, 53 Tackles, and 26 QB hits. Most of his stats improved from 2018, some more drastically than others. His pass coverage marginally improved but why the hell would you really want him to cover guys? (Don't say it Niners fans, DON'T SAY IT) Chandler Jones is the prototype for edge defenders. He is what all other Defensive Coordinators wish they had. Strong, fast, smart, consistent. Here's a guys opinion and a breakdown.Here's some highlights because not everybody watched all 16 Cardinals games last year and I don't blame them. I think he will rank even higher next year if he stays healthy because he will finally get to settle into a defense again. Even if it's Vance Joseph's.
#11 - Ronnie Stanley - Offensive Tackle - Baltimore Ravens
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Written By:Letsgomountaineers5 Where to begin with Ronnie Stanley? Oh, how about a nearly minute long clip of him absolutely bullying First Team All Pro and NFC DPOY Chandler Jones. You like that? (Sorry Cards fans, but hey we all know Chandler Jones is a beast). Ronnie Stanley was the best LT in the league. No wait, actually he was the best overall tackle in the league. Actually, Stanley was the best lineman in the league, bar none. I truly believe Stanley was a top 5 player in the NFL last season and even tried (and failed/came to senses) to argue Stanley as a top 2 player. His dominance on the left side of that line was unprecedented. I know stats don’t paint the entire picture, especially for OL, but I have to start there because his stats were unworldly as a blindside protector facing the best pass rushers the NFL has to offer. Going against the likes of TJ Watt twice a year, Carlos Dunlap twice a year, Myles Garrett, Chandler Jones, Nick Bosa, Shaq Barrett (need I go on), he allowed zero sacks and six pressures on 445 pass blocking snaps. Of tackles with at least 400 pass blocking snaps to allow 6 pressures or less, he was the only one. Wait, the only one? Let’s expand. 10 pressures on 400 snaps? Hmm. Only Ronnie Stanley. 15? Hmm only Ronnie Stanley. 20 and no sacks? Only Ronnie Stanley. Unreal. So how does he do it? Well for starters, he has an elite pass rusher’s explosion as an offensive lineman. He can pack a pop that will knock the best rushers off line or on their ass without overextending. Just ask Nick Bosa. Refer back to the Chandler Jones lowlight reel for a second and check out how often he simply beats Jones (one of the most explosive and best bending edge rushers in the game) to his spot time and time again. Stanley is out of his stance so fast it looks like he’s false starting and, be it film review/sixth sense/sheer athleticism (my money is on all three), he hits the pass rushers’ marks before they do. Sometimes, he even chips defenders to the ground he doesn’t have a responsibility for. Because of these reasons, he’s basically the only lineman in the game not playing catchup and is tremendously equipped to react to counters. In the run game, he was a driving reason behind that team’s record setting running success. He can be a mauler, but with his speed also can pull like the best guards in the game and lead block for some of the fastest players in the game. At the end of the day, his dominance in both pass blocking and run blocking makes him a worthy top 15 player, and if not for a tendency to underrate linemen, I believe he should’ve been a shoe-in for the top 10. If you read this far, thank you. Now I need to go puke after that glowing endorsement for a Raven.
DraftKings Milly Maker Report: High Stakes vs Low Stakes
It’s that time again for another edition of the Team Rise or Fall DraftKings Milly Maker Report. Since we’re nearing the end of the season I wanted to take a slightly different approach to the report this week. Instead of focusing on the $20 Milly Maker, or including the big boy $500 Milly I’m going to do some of that while including the $3 $1.3M NFL Play-Action and the $4,444 NFL 600K Fourth Down. All information that I’ll be mentioning and displaying comes from the wonderful world of Fantasy Cruncher and Lineup Study. There wouldn’t be a Milly Maker Report without a tool that makes it easy to analyze previous contests. Before we jump into the report, I need to mention that the NBA season is here which means Team Rise or Fall is here to help you. If you’re new to NBA DFS or simply need a refresher go ahead and head over to our DraftKings and Fanduel NBA Strategy Guide. Back to your regularly scheduled programming.
I know we all play at different price points so I wanted to use a wide range of tournaments when it comes to entry fees. Here’s how the contest look if you’re unfamiliar with some of these GPPs. $3 NFL $1.3M PLAY-ACTION Top Prize: $100,000 Entries: 515,259 Max Entries: 20 $20 NFL $3.5M FANTASY FOOTBALL MILLIONAIRE Top Prize: $1,000,000 Entries: 205,882 Max Entries: 150 $500 NFL $2.25M FANTASY FOOTBALL MILLIONAIRE Top Prize: $1,000,000 Entries: 5,000 Max Entries: 150 $4,444 NFL $600K FOURTH DOWN CONVERSION Top Prize: $150,000 Entries: 143 Max Entries: 4
THE WINNING LINEUPS
This is the section that I find most interesting. If you’ve read some of the previous Milly Maker Reports then you already know the contest with the lower entry fees tend to have higher scores than the high dollar contests. What we’re about to see is just how big those differences can be... Read the rest for FREE here:https://teamriseorfall.com/2020/12/16/draftkings-milly-maker-report-high-stakes-vs-low-stakes/
What’s up party people and non-party people it’s that time for the Team Rise or Fall DraftKings Milly Maker Report. If this is your first time joining the report, that’s your mistake but welcome anyway. The purpose of the report is to find trends and strategies that we can apply to the Milly Maker and tournaments in general. There are links to every post in the series at the bottom of this post. One other thing real quick: The NBA season is here! If you’ve enjoyed the success of Team Rise or Fall through the MLB and NFL seasons get ready for more $$$. If you haven’t signed up with us yet now is the time. Make sure to check out our DraftKings and Fanduel NBA Strategy Guide to get you ready for the season. All of the information below comes via the Fantasy Cruncher Pro Lineup Study feature. It allows you to look back at years worth of information. Lineup Study is a really valuable tool and I wouldn’t be able to write a Milly Maker report without its help. Now, on to the Milly Maker Report!
One of the most consistent trends I found from analyzing two years’ worth of Milly Makers is that 76% of the milly winning quarterbacks came from games within the top five for implied totals on the slate. Yes, it makes sense that you want guys from high scoring games, but it’s not always guys from the game with the highest implied total. So as life goes of course Week 13 featured a quarterback outside of the top five but weeks 14 and 15 held to the trend. For the season 12 out of 15 weeks (80%) have seen a quarterback from within the top five for implied totals on the slate take down a Milly Maker. It’s honestly the easiest place to start when building your lineups.
Targeting Offenses and Defenses to Win the Milly Maker
I’m recycling this one more time because I think it’s super important: Analyzing 34 slates over 2018 and 2019 showed there were 10 different quarterbacks that won the Milly Maker in the 2018 NFL regular season and 14 different quarterbacks in the 2019 regular season. What I’m trying to hammer home is that you don’t have to use every QB on the slate. And in fact, you can see less than half of the quarterbacks win a Milly Maker in a given season. So how’s 2020 going? In the first half of the 2020 season... Read the rest for FREE here:https://teamriseorfall.com/2020/12/23/draftkings-milly-maker-report-weeks-13-15/
Man time is flying by and I can’t believe we’re already at the Team Rise or Fall NFL Week 14 FanDuel Strategy Guide. I’m here to pass along a few starting points that I like in cash games and tournaments this weekend. As always, with “cash games” (50/50s, Double-Ups, Head to Head) we’re not necessarily looking to take 1st place. We need to beat 40-50% of the field so we’re looking for players with high floors for touches and targets while trying to be cost-conscious. When it comes to GPPs, I’m looking for upside and correlation. This means stacking a quarterback with at least one pass-catcher from his team and one from the opposing team. There are plenty of ways to take down a tournament when it comes to stacking but that is my preferred method. Before I move forward: The NBA season is less than two weeks away so it’s a great time to sign up if you’re not a Team Rise or Fall member. You can check out ourSample NBA Study Hub to get an idea of what we’ll be providing on a daily basis. All information below is based on the Team Rise or Fall NFL Study Hub. Let’s get to my Week 14 FanDuel plays!
Taysom Hill (7.7k) Hill and the New Orleans Saints take on a team in turmoil in the Philadelphia Eagles. I know I usually stream defenses against the Eagles, (That might still be the case so read the whole article) but, I’m going to mix things up this week. Taysom Hill is the highest value quarterback in the Team Rise or Fall NFL Study Hub. The Eagles are ranked 18th against the quarterback position and allowed Lamar Jackson’s best performance of the season. Hill could do very well playing a similar style.
RUNNING BACK
David Montgomery (6.6k) Montgomery is in a smash spot against the Houston Texans and their 31st ranked defense against the running back position. He’s the second-highest value in our NFL Study Hub and we’re projecting him for 20 touches rushing and receiving combined. Montgomery is averaging a sexy 24 fantasy points per game over his last two games, and I’ll be feeling great if he scores anywhere close to that.
WIDE RECEIVER
Keenan Allen (8.5k) Allen is projected for 12 targets in our NFL Study Hub. He’s averaging a pedestrian 14.8 fantasy points over his last four games, but luckily he pulls the Atlanta Falcons and their... Read the rest for FREE here:https://teamriseorfall.com/2020/12/11/nfl-week-14-fanduel-strategy-guide/
Tuesday Night Football Showdown GPP Picks for DraftKings and FanDuel 12-8
Let’s dive into my Wednesday Night Football GPP picks for DraftKings and FanDuel. Be sure to subscribe to get in-depth analysis, Study Hubs, tiered rankings, player pools, and $20 of FantasyCruncher credit monthly for Ronin members! I’m going to highlight plays that have tournament winning upside and game theory. Let’s get into it! 📷 Head over to ROF Bets for player props, parlays, and other betting content!
Dallas Cowboys @ Baltimore Ravens O/U 45.5 BAL -9
Scenario 1: Game Stays Close
For this scenario, we want to theorize that there is either a defensive battle or a shootout. Given the state of the Dallas defense, a defensive battle isn’t likely but, I would account for this theory in 150 max contests. For the Baltimore side, players that stand out to me are Lamar Jackson, Marquise Brown, and J.K. Dobbins. As of 1 pm EST, Mark Andrews and Willie Sneed are still on the COVID-19 IR. If they are in, they become priority targets as well. I’m expecting Baltimore to run the ball at a high volume against a Dallas defense that allows over 150 rushing yards per game according to the NFL Study Hub. I’m expecting Jackson and Dobbins to be the main beneficiaries of the running game with Gus Edwards and Mark Ingram mixed in. I would have shares of Edwards and Ingram in MME contests but, they are not part of my core. For a shootout, I will toss Dez Bryant and Devin Duvernay into my pool. They are both cheap and offer salary relief. For the Dallas side, players that stand out to me are Ezekiel Elliot, Andy Dalton, Amari Cooper, and CeeDee Lamb. Assuming this game stays close... Read the rest for FREE here:https://teamriseorfall.com/2020/12/08/tuesday-night-football-showdown-gpp-picks-for-draftkings-and-fanduel-12-8/
Hello and welcome to the Team Rise or Fall NFL Week 13 GPP picks article. Tournament plays are going to differ from typical cash game plays. We’re looking for correlation, stacking our quarterback with one or two of his pass-catchers and even having a secondary stack to run it back. We are less than three weeks away from the beginning of the NBA season. Check out the NBA Study Hub Sample for a sneak peek into what is to come!
Kirk Cousins Cousins and the Vikings have the highest implied team total on the main slate this weekend at 30.75. In reviewing the Team Rise or Fall NFL Study Hub, we see that there’s been an uptick in production over the last four weeks as Cousins is averaging 24.1 fantasy in that period. Cousins should have Adam Thielen return this week and with Dalvin Cook a bit banged up the Vikings could rely a bit more on the passing game. Deshaun Watson Watson and the Texans will face a tough matchup in the Indianapolis Colts. The NFL Study Hub projects Watson as the highest-scoring quarterback on the slate. He lost wideout Will Fuller to suspension so we’ll have to see where those targets go. This may allow him to increase his rushing opportunities to add on to his decent rushing floor.
Running Back
Derek Henry It’s December and Henry is doing what he does in December. As defenses wear down, he just keeps getting stronger and stronger. Henry projects as the second-highest scoring back on the slate behind Dalvin Cook. Though Cook has the benefit of getting more targets in the passing game, I’d rather take the upside of Henry and his nearly 25 touch floor that we’ve seen over the past 4 weeks. David Montgomery This isn’t for the faint of heart. Montgomery isn’t one you typically rush to get into your DFS lineups but... Read the rest for FREE here:https://teamriseorfall.com/2020/12/03/nfl-week-13-gpp-picks-for-draftkings/
Alright, it’s time for the Team Rise or Fall NFL Week 13 cash picks for FanDuel. I’m here to pass along a few starting points for your cash game plays this weekend. As always, with “cash games” (50/50s, Double-Ups, Head to Head) we’re not necessarily looking to take 1st place. We need to beat 40-50% of the field so we’re looking for players with high floors (Touches and targets) more than taking a chance on a guy we have a feeling about. Before I move forward: The NBA season is right around the corner so it’s a great time to sign up if you’re not a Team Rise or Fall member. You can check out ourSample NBA Study Hub to get an idea of what we’ll be providing on a daily basis. All information below is based on the Team Rise or Fall NFL Study Hub. Let’s get to Week 13!
Ryan Fitzpatrick (7.4k) Fitzpatrick comes in as the second highest value in the Team Rise or Fall NFL Study Hub and gets to take on the Cincinnati Bengals and their 30th ranked defense against quarterbacks. Fitz is currently our fourth highest projected quarterback so things are looking good for him to have a nice Sunday. Kirk Cousins (7.3k) I have a love/hate relationship with Cousins based on the fact that I very rarely get it right when it comes to his good games. I’m feeling confident I’ll get him right this weekend. Kirk is the fourth highest value at quarterback this week and draws the Jacksonville Jaguars with their 28th ranked defense against quarterbacks.
RUNNING BACK
James Robinson (7.8k) I’m looking for volume at the running back position and Robinson definitely provides that. The Team Rise or Fall Study Hub lists Robinson as the running back with the third most touches over the last four weeks. He trails only Derrick Henry and Dalvin Cook. He also ties for the third-best value on the slate. Derrick Henry (10k) Derrick Henry. What else is there to say? He’s the second highest projected running back in our NFL Study Hub, and he’s averaging the second most points at the running back position over the last four weeks. Henry and the Tennessee Titans take on the Cleveland Browns who’ve been good against the run, but Henry is different. Subscribe to get access to Scrosby’s Cash Pool!
Best NFL Player Prop Bets: Week 14 (2020) by Brenden Schaeffer December 12, 2020 Last week was another strong one, as we easily cashed two of our three props (thanks for nothing, Trubisky). NFL Playoffs NFL Playoff Picks 2020: Odds, Prop Bets, Predictions for Final Divisional Games Jake Rill Senior Analyst I January 12, 2020 Comments SportsLine Prop Guide See which big game props you need to bet, which players sail over their yardage and touchdown totals, and get trends you need to know, all from a team of football insiders. Here are five player prop bets from the Sunday games that will give you a chance to go to the pay window and buy some last minute Christmas presents. NFL Week 15 prop bet payday. Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 9:45 p.m. ET. You sank my Blankenship Best NFL Player Prop Bets – Week 17, 2020. By Noah Davis in NFL | December 31, 2020 2:11 pm PST . Share: Share. Tweet. The final week of the 2020 NFL regular season arrives on Sunday. It’s a massive main slate, with a lot of games to bet on and plenty of in-game action to attract bettors. Best NFL Player Prop Bets: Week 15 (2020) by Brenden Schaeffer December 19, 2020 . Now we’re cooking with gas! We enjoyed a 3-0 record in Week 14, as Justin Herbert tossed two touchdowns, T.Y. Hilton kept up his hot streak and poor Giovani Bernard proved to have been the easiest fade of the slate—he needed to clear 55.5 rushing yards to Prop Bets for Awards – The 2020 NFL Draft was noteworthy for prop bets on prohibitive favorites, such as Joe Burrow’s 1-to-a-billion payoff odds to go #1 overall. But during the offseason to follow, prop sports betting on awards drew very few shoo-ins alongside the long-shots. NFL Draft Prop Odds: Position of Mr. Irrelevant in 2020. Prop bet gamblers at FanDuel can also speculate on the position of “Mr. Irrelevant,” the final NCAA student-athlete taken in the 2020 NFL Draft. “Offensive Player” is currently the favored betting line at (-125) odds, with Defensive Player falling behind in the action at (-105). Ready for the best NFL player prop in 2020? Justin Herbert could play a full season and still potentially fall short of reaching 3,400 passing yards. What makes hitting this total even more complicated is that all signs are currently pointing toward Tyrod Taylor being the starter in week 1 versus the Bengals. Tom Brady 2020 Prop Betting Results. The table below has the ROI for Tom Brady using Bovada sportsbook odds. The return is based on making a $100 bet on every over and under bet offered in the 2020 regular season. Tom Brady Prop Bets ROI 2020
Most intriguing wide receiver prop bets for the 2020 NFL ...
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